Hi everyone, the Drew rating is back. It is a metric that I use to measure teams. It’s pretty accurate as well, it is measured by point differential, third down differential, yards per play differential, turnover differential and a small fraction of net kickoff/net punt/field goal rate. It’s not a perfect science but what is, it is a fantastic metric to use and I have used it to handicap NFL Games over the past couple of seasons. It really does measure how good a team is even though my rankings won’t completely reflect that ranking (it’s only 5 games in). It will be quite close however, rankings underneath.
32. Jaguars 0-5 (Drew Rating: -21.78 Projected Record 0-5) LW: 32
The Jags are a hot mess right now. Urban Meyer keeps digging himself a deeper hole with the fan base and the press. The defense has flashes but overall is an overmatched unit. The offense can run the ball, but they do not commit to it enough. The one positive sign is Trevor Lawrence is showing improvement every week. I still believe Trevor Lawrence is the right guy at QB for the cats, Urban Meyer on the other hand may be in So Cal coaching college next fall.
31. Lions 0-5 (Drew Rating: -13.11 Projected Record 1-4) LW: 31
Ouch another devastating loss. The Lions lost to the Vikings and Ravens on buzzer beating field goals of 66 and 54 yards. If those kicks do not clear the crossbar the Lions would be 2-3 and looking like a potential spoiler team in 2021. Dan Campbell showed the world postgame that tough guys can cry. It was a very heartfelt message from the Lions head coach. They are playing their butts off in Mo Town just not enough talent to compete at a high level.
30. Dolphins 1-4 (Drew Rating: -28.06 Projected Record 0-5) LW: 25
Worst point differential in football, 2nd worst third down differential (over 20 percent difference). This means the Phins are getting boat raced (aquatic jokes) , they are not getting off the field on defense while having drives stall quickly on offense. Jacoby Brissett is not the answer at QB and they can’t run the ball, stop the run, or stop the pass. This team in South Beach is an absolute mess right now, Brian Flores has some work to do.
29. Jets 1-4 (Drew Rating: -13.46 Projected Record 1-4) LW: 28
The Jets defense has been pretty solid thus far (solid metrics all across the board), however the offense has been a mess. Zach Wilson in London against a gettable defense was missing many layup throws. One play in particular was a swing pass to Jamison Crowder late in the first half that was horribly off target that fell incomplete, with the blocking ahead of him that play could have resulted in a touchdown. Instead the Jets settled for a field goal and would lose by 7. But hey at least they got a free flight across the pond!
28. Texans 1-4 (Drew Rating: -13.08 Projected Record 1-4) LW: 30
Texans are a bad team mind you. But I was impressed with Davis Mills on Sunday, he does have some game and I think he will make a good backup/swing Quarterback for a long time in this league. But in the latest puzzlement of David Culley head coaching decisions, the Texans coach would do a fake of a fake punt in a play that ended with the punt hitting a blockers helmet and went for 0 yards. The Texans were up 22-9 at the time!!! The Texans would lose 25-22, oh David!
27. Giants 1-4 (Drew Rating: -7.48 Projected Record 2-3) LW: 23
The Saquon Barkley injury (likely serious) and the Daniel Jones injury (not as serious but may miss this week) have hindered what was a surprisingly very solid offense so far in 2021. What issues has plagued the Giants is a defense that is giving up over 400 yards a game and 6.5 yards per play. The G Unit was one of the stingiest defenses in the game last year but this year they cannot stop anyone from doing whatever their heart desires on them, this bad start will doom them in the end.
26. Colts 1-4 (Drew Rating: -2.83 Projected Record 2-3) LW: 22
What a disheartening loss for the horseshoe helmets in Maryland last night. The Colts were up 22-3 late in the third Quarter and on their last three drives they went field goal, blocked field goal, missed field goal. Rodrigo Blankenship who had been solid since coming into the league last season was certainly not healthy as he was visibly in pain on the sidelines throughout the night yet kept going out there to try to gut it out. Good news was Carson Wentz is beginning to come into his own and the schedule gets T.P Soft now.
25. Falcons 2-3 (Drew Rating: -13.01 Projected Record 1-4) LW: 27
The Falcons are like a scary movie. Everything seems all bright and sunny, the high school kids are having a fun life being teenagers and spending time with their friends. But then the villain comes in and starts taking everyone out. The Falcons on Sunday in London had a rare happy ending as their 20-3 halftime lead did not completely vanish (thanks to the Jets being the Jets). But when you are watching Atl, no lead is ever safe, buyer beware.
24. WFT 2-3 (Drew Rating: -17.03 Projected Record 1-4) LW: 17
The WFT are a terrible third down team, has the worst third down defense in the league (giving up over 57 percent conversions, that’s not good!). What was supposed to be a vicious defense with a fierce pass rush cannot get to the QB if there was no one blocking for him. I do not know what happened to that unit this year. The only solution I have is they feasted on bad Quarterbacks last season and in 2021 they haven’t really faced a bad one yet (in other words they are overrated), this week they get angry Patrick Mahomes after his worst career game, yikes.
23. Steelers 2-3 (Drew Rating: -6.42 Projected Record 2-3) LW: 26
Big win for the Steelers over the Broncos on Sunday. They also catch a break this week as they get to play Geno Smith instead of Russell Wilson on what has to be the least anticipated Sunday night game of the season. Ben Roethlisberger looked like he could throw a forward pass still . Najee Harris had some running lanes and went over 100 yards for the first time in his young career. The defense feasted on Teddy Bridgewater until the end when the defense tried to give the game away. However, in the end kudos to the d for getting a goal line stand, the burgh is not dead yet.
22. Patriots 2-3 (Drew Rating: -.80 Projected Record 2-3) LW: 21
The Pats were able to save their season with a big time comeback over the hapless Texans in Houston. The issue with this team is they cannot block, they cannot get off the field on third down, they do not have big play potential in the passing game with no real deep threats. On a good note Mac Jones looks like he could play some (71 percent completion percentage). He is playing like a very poor man’s Tom Brady so far this season. If Mac Jones continues with this progress the Pats could make a push in the second half.
21. Vikings 2-3 (Drew Rating: 1.29 Projected Record 3-2) LW: 20
Needing a 54 yard field goal to beat Detroit in a game that you were up by 10 in the 4th Quarter at home is not a good look. This team that looked so explosive in the first three weeks but all of a sudden they can’t block, get big plays or sustain drives. Kirk Cousins after playing very underrated football during a 17 game streak of a passer rating of 90 or better has been bad the last two weeks. That 54 yard field goal by Greg Joseph may have saved Mike Zimmer’s job.
20. Seahawks 2-3 (Drew Rating: 1.64 Projected Record 3-2) LW: 12
Huge drop in my rankings for the Hawks but without Russell Wilson for at least four games the Hawks are in danger of having their wings clipped. Geno Smith played admirable in relief on Sunday but his late interception even with Tyler Lockett slipping was a dangerous throw that showed why he is a backup. The issue is their defense is absolutely awful and this team has been getting smoked in the second half in every game they have lost. The Hawks have had a halftime lead in every game yet only 2-3 on the year, this says a lot about their lack of making adjustments.
19. Eagles 2-3 (Drew Rating: 3.46 Projected Record 3-2) LW: 29
The most impressive win in all of football outside of the team from Western New York had to be Philly’s come from behind win in Carolina. The defense was suffocating in the second half and made Sam Darnold look like he still played on the other green team from the northeast. Jalen Hurts is very gimmicky and still locks on to one receiver too often but his 10-3 TD/INT Ratio shows he has been making plays and protects the ball. The Birds are not out of the Wildcard race in the NFC Quite yet.
18. 49ers 2-3 (Drew Rating: -1.12 Projected Record 2-3) LW: 16
The 49ers rating simply shows that the Drew Rating is a tool I use but does not tell all of the story. The 49ers look like a team that could still compete for a playoff spot if either Jimmy Garoppolo can stay healthy or Trey Lance can continue his growth. Lance looked very raw on Sunday in Arizona but his ability as a duel threat brings a new element to a very complex (yet simple) Kyle Shanahan offense. The front four is absolutely nasty and that alone makes up for a weak secondary.
17. Bears 3-2 (Drew Rating: -9.81 Projected Record 2-3) LW: 24
I have to give the Bears a large jump this week. The defense has been showing out in a big way in the last four weeks and even though the offense is limited, Justin Fields has been protecting the ball and making things happen in critical situations. The biggest plus for the Bears is Khalil Mack. We all know that this was his reunion game against the Raiders on Sunday but the Buffalo Bull has been wreaking havoc every Sunday this year thus far, well see if the Ozo’s can keep this up, but for right now Matt Nagy’s job is safe.
16. Chiefs 2-3 (Drew Rating: -5.67 Projected Record 2-3) LW: 8
Biggest drop in the rankings this week has to be the two time AFC Champs. Simply put they are not a good football team right now. They are giving up over 7 yards a play (which would be the worst in modern NFL History), they have a minus 7 turnover differential. They just look sloppy and undisciplined on both sides of the ball. I think this is the floor of where the Chiefs will be but their five time AFC West Championship reign is in serious jeopardy this year.
15. Raiders 3-2 (Drew Rating: 3.41 Projected Record 3-2) LW: 11
Jon Gruden resigned yesterday after emails were leaked of the former Raiders coach using bigoted, sexist and homophobic comments. It was a shocking yet appropriate and just decision. What transpired on the football field last Sunday was a predictably flat performance and very possibly a tailspin for the rest of this season. Just when we though the Raiders were for real at 3-0 and beating three 10 win teams from last season the wheels have yet again fallen off in the land of black holes.
14. Broncos 3-2 (Drew Rating: 3.81 Projected Record 3-2) LW: 13
The Broncos have fallen back to Earth losing two in a row after sleepwalking through 3 quarters of the game in Pittsburgh on Sunday. The good news for the orange and blue is that they are catching the Raiders at the right time on Sunday. It’s hard to see the Raiders being able to devise a solid game plan for four Quarters with the turmoil they have had up top. Broncos minus three is my best bet on the board this upcoming Sunday.
13. Titans 3-2 (Drew Rating: -5.38 Projected Record 2-3) LW: 19
The Titans being ranked at 13 in my Power Rankings shows just how much parody there is in the middle. Are the Nashville Titans the 13th best team in football? Perhaps, the big thing going for them is they know what they are. Many of these teams below them are still trying to find their identity. I thought that King Derrick Henry would decline this season but the Beast from Bama continues to punish defenses, he has had now four 100 yard rushing games in a row. They are the class of the worst division in football, I know that’s like being the class of a thrift store clothing line, but who cares just go with it!
12. Panthers 3-2 (Drew Rating: 8.92 Projected Record 3-2) LW: 14
The Panthers are getting a bump due to teams like the Chiefs and Seahawks deserving a serious drop this week. Same with the Titans question is the Carolina Kitties the 12th best team in football? Perhaps, the biggest issue the Cats had on Sunday was Sam Darnold locking into one receiver and throwing the football up for grabs in critical moments of the game (like his days with the Jets). This team defensively is fantastic, but the playoffs will ride on the right arm of the USC Trojan.
11. Bengals 3-2 (Drew Rating: 2.53 Projected Record 3-2) LW: 15
Even in a loss the Bengals have gained my respect and deserved to climb up these rankings. They have a fast defense and a big play offense. We are not sure if Zach Taylor can coach but one thing is for sure. Joseph Burrow is a franchise Quarterback and when you have a franchise Quarterback you have a chance to compete every season. I do not know if the Cincinnati cats can compete for the division, but could they compete for the 7th seed in the AFC, I think they can.
10. Saints 3-2 (Drew Rating: 13.03 Projected Record 4-1) LW: 18
This is the drew rating bump, the Saints should be 4-1 (the loss to the Giants last week was one of the dumbest losses of the year). They still have an awesome defense and even though they do not have an explosive receiving core, the offensive line is so good that it allows their receivers time to get separation. Jameis Winston has also been solid this season, a 12-3 TD/INT ratio an 108.1 passer rating. If Jameis can keep the turnovers down the Saints will be a playoff team in 2021.
9. Browns 3-2 (Drew Rating: 8.41 Projected Record 3-2) LW: 9
The Browns scored 14 points and won and 42 points and lost. Isn’t this the reason why we love football so much. The Week to week unpredictably is astonishing from week to week. I have been very critical of the former Oklahoma Sooner but I am going to defend Baker Mayfield against Colin Cowherd today. When the Quarterback of said team goes 23-32 for 305 yards 2 touchdowns and no turnovers and scores 42 points and the team loses, how is that the Quarterbacks fault? Sports burst who I follow on twitter has pointed out on some of his tweets that Cowherd is obsessed with picking on Baker Mayfield, he has a valid point in this case. Baker deserved to lose in Minnesota but on this Sunday it was a defense that gave up 47 points, 493 yards and 27 first downs that lost the game, not their Quarterback.
8. Ravens 4-1 (Drew Rating: 3.97 Projected Record 3-2) LW: 7
Lamar Jackson is proving all of his critics wrong. When he needed to make plays in stand alone games down double digits in the fourth quarter against the Chiefs and Colts he came through with flying colors. On Monday’s game Lamar Jackson (who won me the week in fantasy!!) went 37-43 for 442 yards and four touchdowns (all in the last four drives when the first three drive the Colts knew Lamar was throwing the ball). The defense however is at a point of no return in terms of injuries. Lamar will have to carry the Ravens back to the playoffs on his own, I believe he can do it!
7. Chargers 4-1 (Drew Rating: 7.16 Projected Record 3-2) LW: 6
A lot of those close games the Bolts would lose over the years they are now winning in 2021. A lot of the public buzz is clamoring that Justin Herbert is the best Quarterback in football. I would still take Mahomes, Rodgers and Brady over Herbert, but that is it right now. For a Quarterback with only 20 career starts that is high praise I tell you. Brandon Staley’s hyper aggressive mantra is also freaking awesome, I am going to officially nickname the new Bolts coach the swoosh, because he just does it!!
6. Packers 4-1 (Drew Rating: .13 Projected Record 3-2) LW: 3
I know I dropped the Packers after winning but the injuries are really starting to pile up. They struggled against Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing attack on Sunday. A big Question for the Packers is can they find a second receiver behind DeVante Adams. The Fresno State Bulldog has become unequivocally the best receiver in the game and his chemistry with Aaron Rodgers is like nothing we have seen from a QB/WR duo in a long time. But if the Packers cannot get healthy, it’s tough to see them competing with the Rams, Cowboys and Cardinals at the end of the year.
5. Rams 4-1 (Drew Rating: 9.35 Projected Record 3-2) LW: 4
The move to Matthew Stafford has worked in terms of explosiveness (the Rams are averaging more than a full yard more per play than last season), but man does Matty Bulldogs leave some throws on the field. He missed many throws even in a big statistical day and victory in Seattle on Sunday. Plus the Rams defense has not been even close to the unit they were last year. With the Giants, Lions and Texans over next three games they should be 7-1 at the midway point, so plenty of time to clean up the little things.
4. Bucs 4-1 (Drew Rating: 13.21 Projected Record 4-1) LW: 5
I know the Rams beat the Bucs head to head but overall I like what I have seen more from Tampa. Tom Brady this season might be playing the best I’ve seen him play in ten years. He looks just razor sharp and in tune with his targets. Tom still struggles under pressure but he’s so dang crafty in the pocket it seems like he’s never under pressure. The cornerback depth is a huge concern and the pass rush has been hit or miss but the Bucco Bruce’s schedule just doesn’t really have many teams that will threaten the back end, should win this division easily.
3. Cowboys 4-1 (Drew Rating: 19.17 Projected Record 4-1) LW: 10
This is a correction jump for the Big Star. They are so efficient on offense, they run the ball more frequently than any team in football on first down yet cannot be stopped. Ezekiel Elliott looks like the 2018 Zeke more than the 2020 Zeke. The biggest story of this team thus far has been the defense. The Cowboys turnover differential of plus 7 is second in football and it feels even more significant because of the timing of many of these turnovers, Dallas is for real.
2. Cardinals 5-0 (Drew Rating: 20.37 Projected Record 5-0) LW: 2
The Cards are the only undefeated team in football but I cannot put them at the top (explain more below), but the red birds being 5-0 is more of a defensive story than anything. Chandler Jones sacked Ryan Tannehill five times in a 38-13 thrashing in Nashville in Week 1. Byron Murphy had a game changing pick six that gave the Cards the lead for good in a 31-19 win over the Jags. The Cards held the Rams to 13 points through the first 58 minutes in a 37-20 rout in L.A. Then on Sunday the birds stopped the 49ers on 4 critical fourth downs in a game that the offense was mostly held asleep in a grind out 17-10 win. As long as Kyler Murray stays healthy, this team is a Super Bowl contender.
1.Bills 4-1 (Drew Rating: 38.59 Projected Record 5-0) LW: 1
I know that Bills have a loss and the Cards do not but listen to these metrics. Bills have a point differential of plus 108 (or plus 115 over the past four weeks). They have a third down efficiency of 49 percent (32 for opponents). They average 6 yards a play (compared to 4.5 for the opposition which is insane in today’s landscape). The Buffalo Bills also have a turnover differential of plus 11. The crazy thing about this domination is Josh Allen is still not playing that well so far this year (he made big plays on Sunday but still missed many routine throws). My good friend Arizona Joe predicted 15-2 for Buffalo in 2021, with how dominant they have looked thus far that appears to be a very accurate prediction.