Hi everyone, we have another great Week of NFL picks. It is the first week of bye weeks so not a full slate this week. I had maybe the worst beat of the year with the Eagles somehow covering the plus 7 in a game that they were down 28-7. We are going to wipe the dirt off our chins and get back to in. Still 9 over .500 for the year and we missed last Thursday only to go 10-4-1 the rest of the way, ride with Drew, I’ll take you there!!
LONDON AGAIN!!
dolphins +3 over JAGUARS
What a dog of a game. These are the two worst rated teams in football so far this season on the Drew rating metric. The Dolphins get Tua Tagovailoa back this week and he may bring a boost to Miami’s deadpan offense (average 4.5 yards a play). The Jags however still have a terrible turnover differential (minus 10), a head coach that may be on his way out (watch TMZ Sports) and a roster that cannot hang with most of the league, have to take the Phins in this game to get their second win, they are still better than what they have showed thus far.
Dolphins Win 23-16
PANCAKES WINDOW
texans +10 over COLTS
The Colts got a punch to the gut there on Monday night. The Colts took a 22-3 lead late in the third Quarter. Then the Colts last three drives went as such, field goal, blocked field goal, missed field goal. That game was not Carson Wentz and company’s fault and the only blame that could go to Head coach Frank Reich is running the ball on third and 10 to setup a short field goal attempt instead of trying to get the first down with the Colts up 25-17 with 5 minutes to play. On a short week after a tough loss like that it’s tough to see the Colts getting up for an early window game against the sad sack Texans. For that purpose and a Houston team that is still playing hard I believe the Colts will win the game but it won’t look pretty, 10 points is too many. There been value with Houston this year because Vegas is making their lines so high and we have been reaping some of the benefits.
Colts win 24-17 (Texans Cover)
BEARS +5.5 OVER packers
The Bears are the team that is very tough to gauge. There is no doubt that the Bears can still play defense. Khalil Mack is having a resurgent season for the Oso’s with 5 sacks thus far. The Bears in their wins have given up a total of 40 points and even in a game that they had 47 yards of offense in Cleveland they still held up their own on defense and hung around in the game for a little bit before finally cracking in the 4th quarter. Could I see the Bears giving the Packers a game here? I actually can, the Packers have not looked sharp for a complete game yet and they have significant injuries on the defensive side of the ball. No David Montgomery or Damien Williams could spell doom for the Bears. But I say to look for the Bears muddy up a game with the cheeseheads, who have looked off all year thus far. The fighting Ditka’s maybe even steal this one late, Justin Fields is a young playmaker.
Bears win 22-21
chiefs +6.5 over WFT
Terrible spot for the WFT. Everyone is throwing dirt on Patrick Mahomes saying he can’t play anymore after the Chiefs home blowout loss to the Bills. Shall I point out that Mahomes has 17 touchdowns and the Chiefs have only punted 8 times total this season (in 5 games). There is huge value here for K.C, tease them, parlay them, take them against the spread. The football’s defense is giving up 57 percent on third down. Their front has been massively disappointing, Taylor Heinicke is not going to keep up with Mahomes in a game that K.C CAN’T LOSE, this one is a layup.
Chiefs Win 41-27
PANTHERS +2.5 OVER vikings
I liked Carolina at a pick em and the line grew even more in my favor as the public money as been pouring in for the Vikings. Have anyone seen the Vikings play as of late? The cannot block, the big play has disappeared as of late. Dalvin Cook is supposed to be back healthy this week but are we sure? One thing is sure for me, the Panthers have a fantastic defense (25 percent third down rate allowed). They make stops, they get off the field, they create turnovers, that game against the Eagles last week was beyond dumb and the tape should be burned at once. I love the Panthers getting points at home, just exhale when Sam Darnold goes back to pass.
Panthers Win 24-20
chargers +2.5 over RAVENS
Believe in the Bolts, believe in Mr. Boy meets world (Justin Herbert), believe in the swoosh (Brandon Staley), believe that a road game for the Bolts is just another game (because every game is a road game for the Chargers). Lamar Jackson’s opus on Monday night was epic and legendary. However, the Chargers are just a better team right now. The Ravens defense is ravaged with injuries and outside of a game against Teddy Bridgewater/Drew Lock the birds defense has not been able to stop anyone. Don Martindale loves to blitz and if he does that in this game the Ravens are going to get shredded. Lamar doesn’t get blown out much but I like the Chargers to win outright and comfortably,
Chargers Win 31-23
bengals -3.5 over LIONS
The Lions have been frisky and they have been in games so far but I like the Bengals to take care of business. This is a mismatch on the outside. Tee Higgins, Ja’Mar Chase and Tyler Boyd are arguably the best three receiver tandem in the game. The issue with the Lions is they are very thin at corner so they likely have to play a lot of zone. If they can get to Joe Burrow this may work but they don’t have much of a pass rush either. The Lions struggle to get stops and Joe Burrow has a big day. The Bengals proved last week they are for real and prove in again in a big road win.
Bengals Win 31-20
rams -9.5 over GIANTS
This is a lot of points but I like the Rams taking care of business. The Rams have had a very tough schedule to start thus far but they are still 4-1 and are very explosive offensively (averaging 6.8 yards per play). Daniel Jones looks like he’s going to return but no Saquon Barkley means with a weak offensive line that the Giants will have to throw to beat the Rams. If you think Daniel Jones can keep up with the explosive Rams that is a you problem mi amigo, give me the Rams, bigly.
Rams win 34-17
cards +3 over BROWNS
If you snagged the hook before the announcement of Nick Chubb being out good for you. The Browns have been great at running the football this season but what happens when they need Baker Mayfield to win the game? I will take my chances with Kyler Murray in a battle of Oklahoma Sooner QB’s. The one thing that could benefit the Browns is the weather (could be windy), but with Jordan Phillips and the Cards top 2 Corners returning I like the Cards to be the first team to outgain the Browns this season, Cards improve to 6-0.
Cards win 27-20
BRONCOS -4 OVER raiders
The Jon Gruden news was shocking, sad, and even worst not that surprising. Men with power abuse their power and think they are invincible. The aftermath with the Raiders is that something this sudden and shocking generally affects a football team for the rest of the year. Even if you make a counterargument that the Raiders are a team full of grown men that know they have a job to do in regards to this game it is a monstrous ask for them to be prepared for the Denver Broncos. The Broncos are a desperate football team who is also playing for their coach and their season. Outside of the Raiders pass rush forcing Teddy Bridgewater into mistakes I just don’t have any argument to go against the Broncos, big play here, take Denver to win in a big spot.
Broncos Win 27-15
PATRIOTS +3.5 OVER cowboys
This game feels like a trap and I am catching onto the hook here. The Cowboys have played great for five weeks thus far. I do not believe in today’s landscape that is attainable Week in and week out. Mac Jones completes 71 percent of his throws, has already proved in 5 weeks that he can read NFL defenses and usually makes the right decision on where to go with the football. The Lone Stars have not come out flat yet this year, they have been on script almost every game. What happens with a great coach puts them off script and a little uncomfortable. I believe Dak and the Cowboys respond and pull out this one late but give me the hook here, this will be a sneaky hell of a football game.
Cowboys Win 26-23 (Pats cover)
SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE KETCHUP BOTTLE
STEELERS -5 OVER hawks
Am I missing something here? Geno Smith is only a five point dog in a stand alone game in Pittsburgh? I have to take Pittsburgh getting less than a touchdown. They still play good defense, they still rush the passer as well as any team in the league. My biggest concern of the birds from grunge land is that they look really slow on defense, the Rams and Vikings just looked way faster in those two matchups. The 2nd and biggest concern is the Hawks have had a halftime lead in every game and are 2-3 overall (lack of adjustments). This is the first game the Hawks don’t lead at the half, Steelers win comfortably.
Steelers Win 27-13
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTH
TITANS +5.5 OVER bills
Like it, I love it!!! So the Bills just won their Super Bowl, a blowout out of the team that have had their number ever since they made that draft day trade back in 2017. Now the Buffalo’s have been getting their backs patted and congratulated throughout the week like they really won the actual Super Bowl. They are #1 in everyone Power Rankings (including mine). They have a point differential of plus 115 over the last four games (one of the best four game stretches in NFL History), yet they are favored by less than a touchdown to a team that lost to the Jets????!!! This line is fishy to me and when a line is fishy I take the bait and go the other way. Derrick Henry looks maybe better than ever so far this season. Julio Jones and A.J Brown have both returned. You know what is hard to game plan for, a team with a balanced offense (the Titans embody that). The Titans are my play of the Week. I think the Titans win this game outright and as the case is every Monday in the fall the talking heads are confused on what is real and what is not!
Titans Win 30-28
This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 10-5-1
Season: 44-35-2