Hi everyone, last week was okay going 8-8. We nailed the Pats and Chiefs as big winner. However, Kirk Cousins let me down on my biggest pick of the year. Trust Drew though, we are going to get it back this week. So let’s get this party started shall we. Just don’t look at Russ’s middle finger.
RETURN OF THE DREADED LONDON GAME
FALCONS -3 OVER jets
This game is played a neutral field, no Calvin Ridley or Russell Gage for the birds. So then we have to take the New York football propellers here.. Not so fast ladies and gents. Give me the dirty birds minus three. The Jets acted like they just won the Super Bowl last Week and now they are traveling overseas to London to play an 09:30 AM EST start. The Falcons even without their top receivers and a defense that is suspect are better that the Jets, have the better quarterback at this point. The man who looks like a tennis player more than a QB (Zach Wilson) throws two to the Falcons and the birds win an ugly game.
Falcons Win 21-13
PANCAKES WINDOW
BUCS -10 OVER dolphins
Good morning Florida!! This is a brutal sport for the aquatic mammals. Thomas Brady and his pirate gang just had a very tough emotional week in Foxborough and now it’s all back to business. The Bucs still don’t have any healthy corners but come on friends, do you really see Jacoby Brissett taking advantage of that. The verdict is in on Jacoby Brissett, he just isn’t that good of a quarterback. The Phins can’t run the ball and against the Bucs defense he will be forced to throw the ball. With that happening even with a big number I will take my chances as the Bucs roll.
Bucs Win 31-17
eagles +3 over PANTHERS
Take the points here. I know the Eagles have looked like trash the last two weeks. I still believe this Eagles team is slightly better than I thought. The counter argument is that Panthers have a good defense and the Eagles have a bad defense. The Panthers I could see struggling with a quarterback that has mobility and can make things happen on broken plays. Guess who can make things happen when the play is broken down, that’s right Jalen Hurts. Give me the green birds to pull an upset and for David Tepper to start getting a little impatient in the owner’s box.
Eagles Win 27-23
WFT +2.5 OVER saints
WFT getting points at home, the baller shot caller 20 inch blades Taylor Heinicke is getting points at home. I know the Football’s defense has been more disappointing than Fruit Stripe gum but is the Saints with less explosiveness than a rock going to take advantage of that? This line does not make any sense to me. Usually Vegas knows what they are doing and we should take the Saints with that number but I am not afraid. I will take my boy Tay Tay and the WFT at home getting 2.5.
WFT Wins 24-20
titans -4.5 over JAGS
Martellus Bennett said on Twitter that Urban Meyer stayed behind in Ohio after the game last Week because he wanted to see his to put it so eloquently intimate female friends that is not his wife. So one of two things can happen here. The Jags could be super inspired and play hard for their coach and give the Titans all they got in a game that if Jacksonville pulled the upset they would somehow still be in the race in this sorry excuse of a division. However, I’m going the other way, the Jags are a kid’s playpen mess. The Titans on the other hand just got embarrassed by the Jets last week, you think Mike Vrabel is losing to the Jets and Jags back to back, that’s what I thought!
Titans Win 31-13
VIKINGS -10 OVER lions
Vikings are favored by ten and I’m taking them what is wrong with me? Well Kirk Cousins is the king of beating bad teams in an early window. I forgot one thing when I rode hard with Minnesota last week. Kirk Cousins doesn’t beat good football teams. The Brownies are a good football team. Kirk Cousins feast on bad football teams in a game no one even in Michigan will be watching. This is the perfect spot to go big on the Vikings and remember to have them fail when they play any team halfway decent, and ride them when they play Detroit.
Vikings Win 37-17
STEELERS PK OVER broncos
Teddy Bridgewater could play in this game. Would that change my pick here, perhaps it would be the Steelers are in a desperate situation here. Ben Roethlisberger has been being roasted on sports talk and social media for a month. This isn’t a great defense for Big Ben to try to get right so Big Ben isn’t the reason why the Steelers will win but he plays better. The Steelers will win because of that defense. The Burros are missing their two most explosive wide receivers and the offensive line appeared to be protection challenged last week and that is not a good problem to have against T.J Watt and company. Give me the burgh to save their season for now.
Steelers Win 20-17
packers -3 over BENGALS
This is a huge spot for the Nati. They have a chance to improve to 4-1 and prove to the football world that they are a legit playoff contender in 2021. The concern for me here is that Aaron Rodgers is playing too damn well right now to ride against him. He is in the best shape of his life right now and laser focused. He’s cut up like an action movie star. He’s playing with a ton of confidence and focus. The Pack’s secondary injuries are seriously concerning against Joey B and all his weapons (Tee Higgins may be back), but this spot may be too big for Cincy. This game is one of the biggest stayaways this week but I’m taking Rodgers to out duel Burrow in a great one.
Packers Win 31-26
TEXANS +9 OVER patriots
This is the simply too many points to me. The Pats do have a good defense, the Pats do have the better team. But in a game that the over under is less than 40 a team getting almost ten points makes me lean towards the points. David Mills did look brutally bad in Buffalo last week. The Texans defense which bent in the first half did break in second half. But the Pats are going to come out flat this week after a very emotional loss last week. I could see this game being like 6-3 in the third quarter, just don’t open your eyes. It’s going to be freighting to watch this game.
Pats Win 17-10 (Texans Cover)
WINGS WINDOW
RAIDERS -5.5 OVER bears
This is my favorite line of the Week. So the Raiders are playing against a rookie QB in his third start. The Bears cannot block and the Raiders can rush the passer some. Derek Carr had a slightly off game last Week. He’s still been phenomenal this year and I see a huge bounce back from DC4 this week. Vegas has had some Vegas like games so far against two AFC opponents in games the Darth Vaders prevailed in overtime. This one is a little beat easier for Vegas, the Raiders are the casino and the Bears are the poor chump going to the ATM to get more money to lose, Vegas baby!
Raiders Win 28-13
CHARGERS -2 OVER browns
This is my second favorite line of the Week. I made the colossal mistake of riding Kirk Cousins against a good team last Week. You who does beat good teams though? Justin freaking Herbert!!! One more important tidbit about the Chargers. All four of their opponents have scored their lowest point total of the season thus far. I do not think that streak continues (the Browns will score more than 14 points). But I think that the huge disparity in Quarterback (especially with Baker Mayfield torn labrum) and Jarvis Landry still being out (who is Baker Mayfield’s go to on third down) is going to really crush the Brownies here in a game they will need to throw some to hang around. I’ll go big against Cleveland for a second straight Week, give me the Bolts. Plus not as many opposing fans at this game, we can actually hear Justin Herbert audible for once!!
Chargers Win 27-20
COWBOYS -7 OVER giants
These teams usually play close games and Daniel Jones play thus far has been one of the most untold stories of the Season (A New York story flying under the radar? Only in the NFL!!). But the Cowboys offense is a machine right now. They have even revived Ezekiel Elliott who is being spoon fed like a baby after every first down again. I do worry about a backdoor cover from Danny backdoor covers but I think the Cowboys are a shark in the water right now and Dak and his boys smell blood. They know if they win this game they have buried that Eagles and Giants by Week 5, give me the Boys and the minus 7.
Cowboys Win 34-20
CARDS -4.5 OVER 49ers
Taking all of the home favorites in the late window does concern me some but I have to go with the value. Many are calling this a trap game for Arizona. I am going to push back on that some. I was very surprised with the Kyler Murray, Kliff Kingsbury and crew’s demeanor after the shellacking of the Rams in L.A last week. The Cards acted like they have been there before even though we all know they have not which showed they are focused. Plus they are getting the not ready to play Trey Lance or the banged up again Jimmy Garoppolo behind center on the other side. These Cards are for real, and a team that scores like they do this number does not scare me one bit, take Zona to stay undefeated.
Cards Win 33-21
GAME OF THE YEAR ON SUNDAY NIGHT?
CHIEFS -2.5 OVER bills
The Bills have been the better team thus far. The Bills have two shutouts in three Weeks. Josh Allen has been mostly average but can still erupt at any moment. However, the Chiefs have 6 punts in four games. The Chiefs have one three and out in four games. The Bills have played the Steelers, Dolphins, WFT and Texans. That is three of the five worst offenses in the league with Washington being the only competent offense and they did move the ball some in that game. In other words this is a quantum leap in talent the Buffalo’s D will be facing. I believe Mahomes outduels Josh Allen and the over is also the play, not many punts in this one. The Chiefs win in one of the best games of the year.
Chiefs Win 37-34
MONDAY NIGHT!!!
colts +7 over RAVENS
This is strictly a value pick to me. The Colts are coming into this game with some confidence after a big road win in South Beach last week. The Ravens have had one of the weirdest seasons thus far as they have started 3-1 for the second straight year. However, unlike last year where they demolished three teams in a row this 3-1 feels weird. They played their best game of the season last Week in Denver as the defense did look better. But what works to the Colts advantage is the Colts are a team that could control the clock and shorten the game. I do think Baltimore wins outright but this will be a close game throughout, the Colts schedule lightens up as well after this game. They could be comfortably in first place by the end of October.
Ravens Win 24-20 (Colts Cover)
This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 8-8
Season: 34-30