Drew’s NFL Picks Week 3

Hi everyone, we had a winning week last week. With the bounce back week and nailing the Panthers on Thursday I am back to .500 for the year. A professional handicapper is usually at 58 percent for the year. I am aiming high and want to get to 60 percent for season. I still have time to hit my goal and Thursday was a good start for this Week as this crazy guy took Sam Darnold laying over a td on the road and was right! Let’s keep this train rolling into the Weekend, shall we.

Mimosa Window

JAGS +7 OVER cards

How can anyone take Jacksonville in this spot. They have been bad so far, actually is there a word that is worse than bad, awful, putrid? Truth is you are not betting with the Jags in this spot but against Kliff Kingsbury in this spot. What in our right minds believes that Kliff Kingsbury should be favored over any team by a touchdown when he’s on the road. Arizona should win the game but I expect this to be a sloppy game that Arizona holds onto late. Too many points my friends to trust the Cards here, if anything team redbirds showed it’s hard to trust them anywhere.

Cards win 27-22 (Jags Cover)

colts +5.5 over TITANS

For the record I am taking a lot of underdogs this Week. There will be a couple of upsets along the way too. I am not going this far here but do believe that the Horseshoes will keep this game close. The biggest question is whether Carson Wentz is playing or not. As of right now he is leaning towards playing so I’m going to say the Titans and Colts play what should be a neck and neck game. I do not trust the Titans yet as they have only had one good quarter out of the eight played thus far this season.

Titans Win 28-26 (Colts Cover)

LIONS +8 OVER ravens

But the Ravens just beat the Chiefs and looked like world beaters how can I take Detroit? It’s a numbers game and I can almost guarantee the Lions first Quarter line is a must bet this Sunday. When an NFL team has their biggest emotional win they have had in several years there is almost always a regression to the mean the following Week. The Ravens are almost certainly to come out flat and the Lions are playing their butts off under Macho Man Danny Campbell. I think the Ravens win the game late but the Lions play a game that is closer than anyone would have thought.

Ravens Win 27-23 (Lions Cover)

BILLS -7 OVER wft

There has been a lot of money on the WFT in this game as the public is thinking this game is too many points. When the Public goes one way Drew is going the other. The Bills defense has been what many pegged the WFT to be this year, absolutely filthy and disruptive. Now I know they have played the offensively challenged Dolphins and Steelers in the first two Weeks but why would I worry about a defense that is balling to all of a sudden struggle against Taylor Heinicke. I know I called the dude a baller but that was against the piss poor New York football Giants. Give me the Bills here, bigly!

Bills Win 27-13

PATS -3 OVER saints

I love the Pats for a second straight Week. They have proven to have an excellent defense and the Saints who may have the weakest pass catching group in football is going to have just a few issues moving the ball in this game. The Saints defense isn’t a joke either but I trust the Patriots ability to move the ball more than the Saints in this game, especially at Foxboro. Mac Jones has impressed me in the early season in his ability to run an offense. I’m not an over under guy but almost impossible for me to not recommend taking the Pats and the under here.

Pats win 20-10

falcons +3 over GIANTS

This game is mostly a hard stay away but I do not stay away in my column so I will take the points here and this is why. The Falcons can throw the ball. The Giants pass defense has been a massive disappointment this season. A team that had a good pass rush last season has seemed to lose that rush early in the Season. Taylor Heinicke was comfortable like he was watching the game from his couch against that Giants lack of pass rush last Thursday. Matt Ryan has shown his age under pressure but with time to throw Matt Ryan can still be a dangerous Quarterback. Falcons get their first win in a game many won’t watch.

Falcons Win 24-21

chargers +7 over CHIEFS

This is a complete number bet for me. First off the Chiefs defense has looked downright bad early in the Season. I get that they were playing two very dynamic rushing attacks that most teams are going to struggle to stop but the Chiefs defense as been as forgiving as a gullible child so far this season. This is a better matchup in that the Chargers do not have a great running attack but the Road team is the side and the data shows why. Outside of his first start in 2018 Patrick Mahomes has not been fantastic against the Chargers. Just watch some of the game tape from his other four starts against the Bolts and you’ll be surprised how well Joey Bosa and crew have played against the Red Raider. That being said I do think Kansas City will win this game and it will probably be the Chargers clawing back and K.C getting a couple of first downs ala 2020 Chiefs to hold on to win, Chiefs are just better but this game will almost certainly be competitive.

Chiefs Win 28-25 (Chargers Cover)

BROWNS -7.5 OVER bears

This is a tough spot for Justin Fields first career start. Will he even see the football in this game. The Bears defense is strong on the edge but if you told me Baker Mayfield’s over under for pass attempts in this game is 20.5 I would go under. The Browns shouldn’t even try to pass the ball in this game. The Bears offense is bad, like horror movie on Halloween bad. I could see this game being 17-3 at the half with Justin Fields being 5-8 for 25 yards and the Bears having the ball for 9 minutes and then the Browns wearing them down even more in the second half. Never thought I would say this but the right side is the Browns (yes the Cleveland Browns!) as a big favorite.

Browns win 30-13

bengals +3 over STEELERS

Week 1 always throws many off the scent. This is a game that may dictate who threw us off the scent more. The Bengals as a frisky team that is much improved or the Steelers as a team that still has a destructive defense that could still win this division. The line in this game tells me all I need to know. The Bengals are only a 3 point underdog and this game is IN PITTSBURGH!! It’s probably been 8 years since the Steelers weren’t at minimum laying 5 points at home to Cincy (and most of these games the line has been double digits). I am going to take the stripped cats in DREW’S PICK OF THE WEEK. Love the Bengals in this spot in a game that is huge for them, key is the Bengals defense has shown thus far that they have significantly improved, book it!!!

Bengals Win 24-17

Let’s get our money back window

dolphins +4 over RAIDERS

I was loving the Dolphins in this spot all Week but will downgrade it to a like. There may be some smoke and mirrors with the Raiders, but what give me pause their pass rush thus far, which has been awesome. Tua being out does not concern me much as Jacoby Brissett is more than a capable backup (Even though he did look pretty awful last week). I’ll pick the Raiders to win this game but I wouldn’t be surprised if Miami pulls the upset. This is a huge game for both teams, the Raiders to prove their legitimacy and the Dolphins to keep pace in what will be a competitive AFC Wildcard race.

Raiders win 25-24 (Dolphins Cover)

jets +10.5 over BRONCOS

I understand that the Jets are a bad football team but who in their right mind thinks that the Broncos have merited themselves a team that should be favored by double digits against any NFL Team? They won by 14 and 10 over the Giants and Jags in road games thus far. Congratulations, those could be the two worst teams in all of football and yes I know the New York Airplanes could be the third worst team. What has me heavily leaning Jets here is a defense that is an underrated unit that will certainly give the Broncos average offensive line some problems. Teddy Bridgewater could have his first rough day as a Bronco. The Broncos will win but this game will have South Park nation a little queasy late.

Broncos Win 22-17 (Jets Cover)

RAMS +1 OVER bucs

This is a respect line for Tom Brady and company but this is a brutal matchup for them. I’ll keep it short and sweet why to put a little coin on the Hollywood Billy Goats and not look back. #1. Tom Brady is still the most cerebral Quarterback in football and will shred your defense all day if you give him time to throw. However, I will stand by what I’ve seen over the past four years. The only place he looks like he has aged is in his legs and not because of his mobility. If he cannot step into his throw he is cooked like a Thanksgiving Turkey (WATCH THE FILM, JOSH ALLEN, RUSSELL WILSON, KYLER MURRAY, AARON RODGERS CAN MAKE THROWS OFF PLATFORM, TOMMY USED TO LIKE EARLY 2010’S BRADY NOT NOW). Not a cooker cutter take, it’s a fact of football and the Rams have the Tom Brady’s kryptonite in the way of Aaron Donald. #2. The Bucs secondary is banged up and the Rams passing game is en fuego. I actually think the Rams could win this game by double digits and the public start to freak out about the hierarchy of football. Sorry meant to keep it short, guess I lied :-).

Rams Win 34-23

hawks +1.5 over VIKINGS

If the Hawks didn’t blow a big lead last week this would be a great spot for Minnesota but since they did the Hawks who are in a hyper competitive division will be equally as desperate as the Vikings and that does not serve well for Minnesota because the Hawks are a better team overall. I could certainly see Kirk Cousins and the Vikings rallying in a must win game to save their season but then I remembered something. Kirk Cousins doesn’t beat good football teams. You know how many times the Russell Wilson-Pete Carroll tandem has finished without a winning record, 0 times and I don’t see that changing this year which classifies them as a good football team. Take the Hawks and run with it.

Hawks Win 34-30

AL Michaels game!!

packers +3 over 49ERS

Aaron Rodgers against good 49ers teams (2019, Colin Kapernick-Alex Smith-Jim Harbaugh Era) would always lose to the Niners, often in big games (3 times in the playoffs alone). So I should take the 49ers and run away with this right? I say no and here’s why. When does a team get to a point of no return on the injury front. The 49ers are down four running backs (Trey Sermon might play so maybe three). The 49ers could just bully the soft Packers up front like they have many times over the past decade and make me look dumb. However, I foresee in my Crystal Ball Aaron Rodgers discount double checking a secondary that is also decimated with injuries and the 49ers not running the ball like they have in the past against team cheese. Packers take it late in what will be a good game.

Packers Win 27-24

Peyton and Eli’s game

COWBOYS -3.5 OVER eagles

The Hook is scary but Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are coming off a momentum building victory in L.A over a solid Chargers team. The Cowboys beginning schedule was brutally tough and going 1-1 in a Tampa/L.A cross country road swing with a positive point diffential makes me believe that the Cowboys could be for real. I will continue to eat crow on the Eagles as they very likely could be the second best team in this division. Their defensive front looks legitimate and could give Dak some issues in this game. But the helmet stars have shown two positive signs for me, they can move the ball against good defenses, and they have been a very opportunistic defense thus far (league leading 6 takeaway against two good offenses). If the Cowboys are the class of this division they must take care of business here and I believe they do.

Cowboys Win 27-20

This Week: 1-0

Last Week 9-7

Season: 16-16-1