Drew’s Week 17 NFL Picks

We had ourselves an exciting and crazy NFL Season. COVID affected the league in many ways. We had a wide receiver make a start at QB and it went as well as you would expect a game to go with a wide receiver starting at QB. We have also had an immense amount of injuries leaguewide. Dak Prescott might be the most impactful injury of them all. Which makes it so remarkable that the Cowboys are in a position to make the postseason at this point. Even if it is in the worst division ever, like seriously look at the history of football. The Giants could make the playoffs or finish the season with the third pick in the draft, yeah that bad!!! I am 43-31-5 ATS since Week 12 but since only my friends have received my picks so I’m 0-0 in the public’s eye. Let’s give it maximum effort and start off 2021 with a bang. I’ll rate the early and late games from most interesting to least. Well start in Detroit, hop like a bunny on hot coals around the country and end back in Philly, how does that sound everyone? Great, let’s get this show on the road. HOME TEAM IN CAPS

10 AM IN VEGAS 0R 1 PM IN CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA WINDOW

#16 vikings -4 over LIONS

The Lions right now look like they are ready to go ice fishing or whatever you do up in Michigan in January. The Lions were outgained 588-186 in yards disparity and it could have been far worse if not for Tom Brady taking a nap after halftime. For the record Tom is 43 and when you hit your 40’s rest is needed for the brain and soul, at least that’s what my doctor told me. Which is why the line is Vikings who just give up a 52 burger themselves on the green and red day are laying 4. Matt Stafford is questionable to play with an ankle injury, so this might be the Missouri Tiger Chase Daniel behind center for the cats. Kyle Rudolph just got put on IR for the Vikings, but Justin Jefferson and Adam Theilen should be more than enough fuel for the Vikings to at least avoid double digit loss.

Drew’s prediction Vikings win 38-20

#15 jets +3 over PATRIOTS

Only the Jets (well maybe the Lions or Browns) could screw up getting Trevor Lawrence. That being said you have to give credit to the Jets for playing hard down the stretch. They Jets could ruin not one but two teams playoff chances in defeating the Rams and Browns in back to back weeks. Sam Darnold has shown some flashes of brilliance over the last four weeks (5 td’s 1 int) and is making his case to keep his job as the Jets signal caller in 2021. This could be Jarred Stidham for the Pats as Cam Newton again did nothing through the air last week for the Pats (34 yards passing). Stidham is not going to fare much better in this game with the Patriots having the worst pass catching crew in all of football. If you dare to bet on this game take the points and run.

Jets win 27-17

#9 BUCS -6.5 over falcons

Last week’s loss is so Falcons. Younghoe Koo was 35 of 36 on field goals (including a legendary 8 of 8 on field goals of 50 plus) lined up for a 39 yarder to tie it late and sliced it in the land of barbeque and fountains. That has been the theme for the Falcons all season. They blew a big lead in big D in Week 2 when they forgot the onside kick rules. Following week something called Nick Foles. Then a few weeks later Todd Gurley accidentally scored a touchdown to give the Lions a chance to win which of course they did on a walkoff TD. Then blew 87 chances to beat Taysom Hill post thanksgiving. Then Matt Ryan threw a killer Interception easily in Koo’s range to out Charger the Chargers. Then blew a 17 point lead to these same Bucs before another heartbreaker to the defending champs. Well the damn has broke in the biggest city in the south because the Bucs are white hot (Brady has thrown for over 650 yards in last four quarters) and the line says the Bucs want that five seed to play the NFC Least champ. Lay the 6.5 here and expect the Falcons to be ready for Golfing or fishing season (depending on what the players like to do for leisure).

Bucs win 37-17

#8 steelers +9 over BROWNS

Even with Mason Rudolph starting for the Steelers (which is super ironic if anyone remembers what happened in this setting last season, clue it involves Helmet tossing) this is far too many points for a team dealing with the COVID issues the browns currently are. That being said the Browns did catch a huge break that the Steelers can care less if they are the two or three seed. Many of the Steelers key guys will be either not playing or playing limited snaps but for a tortured fan base in the land of Drew Carey and Lebron James if you think that the Browns are going to get this easy you have something else coming. Mason Rudolph has a chance to pull the upset late but turns into a pumpkin because well it’s Mason Rudolph and the Browns fans can rejoice in the sweet fountains of playoff joy for first time in 18 years.

Browns win 27-22 but Steelers cover the spread

#7 BENGALS +14 over ravens

We next head to Allentown Ohio for a battle of the suddenly and predictably white hot Ravens against the suddenly hot Bengals. Metrically the Ravens should bludgeon the Bengals when you look at how they run the ball and how the Bengals struggle against the run. But the Bengals have been playing well late in the year and 14 is too rich for my blood. Give Zac Taylor a ton of credit for keeping this team together and a team that had over 500 yards of offense last week (albeit against a Texans defense that is a atrocious) and you are getting double digits you take the points. The Ravens will win this game because they are too good and focused to blow this opportunity but take the points as this game has back door cover written all over it.

Ravens win 30-24 but Bengals cover the spread

#6 cowboys -1.5 over GIANTS

It’s tough for me to rate a game this bad this high but when it’s a bona fide playoff game you have no choice but to make it must watch TV. You want to know what is not must watch TV the Giants offense. They have scored 19, 17, 7, 6 and 13 the last five games. The Cowboys lowest output in that time is 16 points and have put up 30 plus in their last three. Daniel Jones has been dealing with a hamstring injury which has limited his mobility as of late which is a huge weapon for him (when he doesn’t fall down). Because it’s the NFC East I do not expect the Cowboys to run away with this game and am even bold enough to give the Giants 20 plus in this game. First meeting was 37-34 and almost every Cowboys game is a shootout so expect some point but the Cowboys to hold on late and wait until the wee hours of Sunday night to see if 7-9 is good enough to get them into the playoff party.

Cowboys win 28-23

#4 BILLS -2.5 over dolphins

Vegas you can tell is very confused putting the line at only bills -1. It’s looking like the Bills are going to play their starters in this game to go for the two seed. When you are as hot as the Bills are over last month it is the right move to not rest and keep the mojo going. A well coached scrappy Dolphins squad is going to turn this game into a fist fight. The Dolphins are fighting for their playoff lives and they can send the Steelers a belated Xmas present in the form of a lump of coal for not even trying at the dog pound. The Bills will see a surprisingly competitive game in Brown land which forces the Bills to have to continue to play hard in a game that turns into a fist fight and makes people question whether Bills are as great as everyone says they are. They are but the Dolphins must be respected. Tyler Bass hits a walk off field goal and the Dolphins go home at 10-6 while an NFC teams gets in at 7-9, that’s life in football.

Bills win 26-23

1 PM IN VEGAS OR 3 PM IN NEBRASKA WINDOW

#14 CHIEFS +4.5 over chargers

Tough thing when it comes to week 17 is handicapping games that do not mean anything to a said team. My educated guess this line shifted about 13 points or almost two full touchdowns compared to where it would be if the K.C Chefs were playing their starters. Justin Herbert has been playing well down the stretch as the Bolts have squeaked out three consecutive three point victories. I am taking the points here because even Micole Hardman, Daryl Williams, Eric Sorensen and some of the Chiefs players who will have to play because some of the regular rotational players on the 53 will have to play will still get the Chiefs to 15-1. Remember that Keenan Allen, Joey Bosa and Derwin James aren’t walking through the other tunnel either. Either way take the points if you really want to throw some coin on this matchup in the land of fountains.

Chiefs win 23-20

#13 BRONCOS +2.5 over raiders

This is a game in the land of mountains and breweries that Vegas has right on the line. The Raiders are trying to finish with only their 4th non losing season since the early 2000s. Of the four games with absolutely nothing on the line this is the most fun of them all and likely will be more entertaining that even some of the games with odds at stake. Derek Carr has fallen off a cliff over the last five games during a 1-4 after a tough hardfought loss to the defending champs on a Sunday night game. Carr has thrown 6 TD’s to 4 picks after throwing 19 to 3 over the first ten games of the year. The Broncos have had a litany of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Drew Lock on the Broncos side of the ball should have one of his best games of the season after what has been mostly a step back from a promising rookie campaign. Let’s say Daniel Carslon wins it at the home for Vegas yet doesn’t cover the spread, my advice is to stay away from this one.

Raiders win 29-27 but Broncos cover the spread

#12 jaguars +14 over COLTS

The NFL expanded to 7 playoff teams this year and the Colts could still become the third 11-5 team in NFL history (85 Broncos, 2008 Pats) to miss the postseason. They need a win (which is likely) and a loss from any of these four teams (Titans, Dolphins, Browns, Ravens) to get into the playoff party. This game to me is a game the Colts get out to a comfortable lead and let their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter to let Mike Glennon, Gardner Minshew or maybe Trevor Lawrence makes a cameo come back and get a backdoor cover. It was a longtime ago when the Colts were upset by the Jags on opening day. 15 losses later the Jags will have their quarterback of the future, hope the growing pains were worth it my friends of Duval County.

Colts win 27-17 but Jags covered the spread.

#11 saints -6.5 over PANTHERS

If the Panthers had Christian McCaffrey or even Mike Davis I would have more confidence in the Panthers to keep this game close. Even with Alvin Kamara missing this game Latavius Murray should have a big game against a frisky but average Panthers defense. The Saints defense has been playing as well as any unit in football. Their defensive line has been dominating the line of scrimmage ever since their bye week. Even in the last two weeks the Saints still knocked down Patrick Mahomes and Kirk Cousins repeatedly in those games. The Panthers offense has been very underrated but without a running game threat expect the Saints to be able to dictate the line of scrimmage in both game and win going away.

Saints win 27-13

#10 49ERS +7 over seahawks

This is my upset of the week. The Seahawks (if you take away a 40-3 thumping of the Jets in Week 14) point totals in the second half has been 16, 28, 23, 12, 20 and 20. Not bad in 1980 but in 2020 is a below average offense. The Hawks defense has been vastly improved since the return of Jamal Adams and the Carlos Dunlap trade, point totals allowed in that time for the Hawks has been 23, 21, 17, 17, 3, 15 and 9. A vast improvement from the first half when they gave up 37 and 44 in their week 7 and 9 losses and couldn’t stop a college offense from moving the ball. Reason to take the niners is their underrated offensive metrics. They run the ball at a clip of 4.4 yards per rush and Jeff Wilson ran for 187 yards last week. Kyle Shanahan knows the Hawks defensive personnel better than any coach in the league and niners duplicate their performance from last week and go into the offseason with a lot of momentum going into 2021. If you don’t trust the money line Niners +7 is the best play of Week 17.

49ers win 24-17

#5 texans +7 over TITANS

Having the most underappreciated 2020 is Deshaun Watson. Deshaun Watson has a passer rating of 112.1 and the Texans average more yards per play than any team in football in 2020 at 6.63 yards per play. Why are the Texans 4-11 with an elite QB and explosive offense? Because their defense and coaching is as bad as it gets in football. For example first time these teams played in Week 6 in Nashville the Texans went for two after scoring a TD late to try to go up by 9 instead of the extra point to go up by 8. The Titans of course came down tied the game. Then Derrick Henry took over in OT and the Texans never saw the ball again. I’m a manalytics guy, use your data as a guide but also use common sense please football coaches. Always put the pressure on your opponents in a pressure situation. For the game Tennessee sneaks into the playoffs in a very entertaining game, Tannehill to Brown again late to win it!

Titans win 34-31 but Texans cover the spread

#2 RAMS -2.5 over cardinals

Johnny Wolford gets the ball in the biggest game of the year for Rams as they play the Cardinals in a potential win or go home game. Because the Rams can still make it in the playoffs if the Bears lost this game did not get flexed to stay in the same window as the Bears Packers to keep urgency the theme of this game. Key players are out for both teams, Christian Kirk is out for Arizona and Darrell Henderson, Jared Goff and Cooper Kupp is out for the Rams. The Rams defense however is ferocious. The Rams are the only team in football allowing under 5 yards a play and outside of Michael Brockers have all their key components on defense. Logic would say to take AZ here but they have already lost to the 49ers, Patriots, Panthers and Lions this season. I will go down the win but not cover because it’s more fun that way. Mike Nugent has a case of the kick itch headache and kicks the Cards into the playoffs at the horn.

Cardinals win 20-19 but Rams cover the spread

#1 BEARS +4 over packers

The Bears have awaken from hibernation at the right time. Matt Nagy might lose his job if the Bears lose this game after pulling Mitch Trubisky after a 2-0 start to the season to go to Nick Foles to fade from 5-1 to 5-5. Then after a Nick Foles injury the Bears went back to Trubisky and since his return the Bears have scored 25, 30, 36, 33 and 41 points. That’s pretty darn good if you ask me!! Aaron Rodgers is having arguably his best season ever (44 TD’s 5 Int 120.4 rating) and is playing football like their is no defense playing against him. Throwing four incompletions in the snow is about as impressive as it gets in last Sunday’s win over the Titans. The Titans weakness is the lack of a passrush. . The Bears strength of their team is their pass rush. The Packers losing David Bakhtiari to an ACL injury is the X-Factor as Khalil Mack has a big day and Mitch Trubisky continues his reunion tour in leading the Bears to an upset win and an improbable berth in the 2020 NFL playoffs!

Bears win 31-24

2020 NFL SUNDAY FINALE

# 1 EAGLES +3.5 over washington

Alex Smith coming back from a calf injury after his previous 18 surgeries to repair a broken fibula and tibia to lead the Washington professional football team to the 2020 NFL playoffs is something of legend. It’s a sports movie come to life. It’s one of the many reasons why we watch sports. Sports is a reflection of real life. In sports there’s struggle, controversy, hardships, pain, laughter, joy, community, and most importantly sports brings us together. I will be releasing a column on Monday on the mystifying world of sports in 2020 and aspects of a sports world without fans. My friends know I love fairy tale endings (Tiger hugging his son after winning the 2019 Masters, Lamar Jackson throwing the winning touchdown in Cleveland after having cramps (lol meme), so why would I pick the Eagles +3.5? Because 2020 sucked and Jalen Hurts is the bogey man that’s why. Just kidding on Jalen Hurts being the bogey man, but his mobility and ability to make some plays offscript win the Eagles a low scoring bruiser in the land of cheesesteaks and inexplicably the once 3-9 Dallas Cowboys make the playoffs.

Eagles win 19-16