This season has been an interesting one. Playoffs begin on Saturday and this will be my first and only Power Rankings for this season. Some of you ask what the Drew Rating is? I created a net ranking for NFL teams on the key stats that matter for NFL teams. It is heavily weighted on point differential (scoring more points than the other team should always be the biggest metric measuring teams), but other factors also come into play outside of scoring differential that factors into this rating. Third down percentage differential (can you continue drives and make stops on the critical down of drives). Yards per play differential (is your offense explosive does your defense prevent explosive plays). Turnover differential (weights heavily into point differential usually turnovers puts points on and off the board often more than anything in football) and a very small (less than 1 percent) on average kickoff field position and net punt ratings. Lots of numbers at play here but this metric is not exact but a good metric because I think it does measure a team well from the eye test but will not be the final decision on these rankings. I will have the drew ranking in parenthesis, please send me your responses, thanks everyone!
#1 CHIEFS 14-2 (D.R 6TH 13, PROJ RECORD 12-4)
The Chiefs are my example on why the metrics don’t say the whole story. I’m sure other advance metrics certainly don’t have K.C at #1 in the league this year either. Sometimes they have looked sloppy and haven’t had a convincing win since they beat the Jets 35-9 over two months ago. But these are the reasons why Chiefs in any power ranking cannot be less than one overall. They are 14-1 in games they played their starters. They are 5-0 (5-0!!!) on the road this season against the following teams (both #2 seeds in AFC and NFC (Bills, Saints), both #5 seeds in AFC and NFC (Bucs, Ravens) and the 10-6 dolphins who would be the #6 seed in NFC but unfortunately for them AFC is so top heavy this year and missed the playoffs altogether). That is the most impressive road performance in NFL history.
#2 PACKERS 13-3 (D.R 2ND 15.56, PROJ RECORD 13-3)
Packers are appropriately rated in power rankings and advanced metrics. They are arguably the scariest team to face in football because Aaron Rodgers is in a zone we haven’t seen him in since his 2010-2011 demolition when it appeared he may be the best quarterback in the history of mankind and win 10 super bowls. At the very least this season is his best chance to get back to play for the big one as the NFC playoffs will go through the land of cheese.
#3 BILLS 13-3 (D.R 4TH 13.79, PROJ RECORD 12-4)
The last six games of the season has been an absolute assault of football by the Bills after a so so midseason stretch before their bye week. Bills have won every game by double digits and are the hottest team in the game going into the postseason. Many are pegging the Bills to dethrone the Chiefs this season and often the hottest team down the stretch (2019 Chiefs, 2005 Steelers, 2010 Packers are prime examples) and not the highest seed or maybe best team over the entire season. This is the first time in 25 years that the folks in western New York have real aspirations at getting that elusive championship trophy!
#4 SAINTS 12-4 (D.R 3RD 14.82, PROJ RECORD 12-4)
The Saints are again for the 5th straight season towards the top of football in what may be Drew Brees last season. The Saints also are the most balanced team in the field. The best unit on the Saints is the defense not the offense. They get the most favorable matchup in the first round in getting the Bears in the dome and could get a Russ-Brees or Brady-Brees battle in the second round.
#5 STEELERS 12-4 (D.R 8TH 8.80 PROJ RECORD 10-6)
The Steelers haven’t looked impressive in about two months but still a team to reckon with. They have decades of experience at head coach and quarterback and that cannot go unnoticed. Plus Big Ben found his rhythm in the second half of the Week 16 game against the Colts which could carry over to the postseason. This should be a fun first round rivalry game against the Browns.
#6 SEAHAWKS 12-4 (D.R 10TH 5.10, PROJ RECORD 10-6)
Seahawks always outperform their metrics. Russell Wilson is the best bandaid a team can ever have and yesterday in the desert against the 49ers validates that he is the most terrifying player to root against in the fourth quarter (Patrick Mahomes might say hold my beer). The defensive metrics were awful early in the year but they rallied late in the year but still giving up over 47 percent on third down in concerning for a playoff team. The Hawks could easily lose on Saturday to the Rams or win the whole thing, they are the toughest team to gauge in the whole playoff field.
#7 RAVENS 11-5 (D.R 1ST 16.83, PROJ RECORD 13-3)
The Ravens are 1st in Drew rating because of one factor. They annihilate bad teams, they beat the Bengals by 24 and 35. They beat the Jags by 26, the Cowboys by 17, the Giants by 14, Washington by 14, Texans by 12. This is why the metrics sometimes don’t tell the whole story and they struggled this year against better competition. The Ravens are the toughest team in the league to play from behind because of the their excellent ball control run oriented offense behind the leagues best dual threat Lamar Jackson. The lone exception for this rule is the Titans who came back from an 11 point deficit in Baltimore earlier this year, guess who Ravens play in round 1? That right their kryptonite the Titans!
#8 BUCCANEERS 11-5 (D.R 5TH 13.58, PROJ RECORD 12-4)
Tom Brady threw 40 touchdowns this year. Amazing fact is that is the first time in Tom’s career he threw total Td’s in the 40’s (He threw 50 in 2007, the Randy Moss year). There was a lot of beating bad teams for the Bucs and there is a concern they may be the good bad team this year. There is evidence of a darkhorse here in the playoffs with a battle against the Washington football team in the first round in a game the Bucs should win (but that’s why the play the games right?).
#9 COLTS 11-5 (D.R 9TH 8.04, PROJ RECORD 10-6)
The Colts are getting a tough draw in the red hot Bills in the first round. Ironic thing about this game is that the Colts are only here thanks to the Bills beating the Dolphins like a drum yesterday. The key to a Colts upset in what the Colts do very well controlling the clock and shortening the possessions to more of a 6-8 possession game. Saturday could be the last game in what is a underrated brilliant career by Phillip Rivers.
#10 TITANS 11-5 (D.R 11TH 4.72, PROJ RECORD 9-7)
The Titans are the ultimate great offense bad defense team we have in the NFL. They can’t rush the passer which translates to not being able to defend the pass. They luckily for them are playing the Ravens in the first round who aren’t know for an explosive passing game. Derrick Henry continued his assault on NFL defenses in 2020 becoming the 8th back in league history to run for over 2,000 yards.
#11 BROWNS 11-5 (D.R 14TH 1.59 PROJ RECORD 8-8)
The Browns are the kings of winning close games in 2020 in winning 7 games by one score and no games by more than 2 scores. This included a 24-22 victory of the semi-Steelers yesterday to clinch their first playoff berth since 2002. The Browns did have a negative point differential this year but should still be a forced to be reckon with in the postseason due to a great playoff formula. A strong running game and great offensive line.
#12 RAMS 10-6 (D.R 7TH 9.35, PROJ RECORD 11-5)
John Wolford or Jared Goff behind center this Rams team could be a force in this years playoffs because of one key factor, defense. The Rams defense is the only team in football to allow under 5 yards per play and with the best defensive player in football (Aaron Donald) and another top five defensive player (Jalen Ramsey) the Rams could win multiple playoff games if their offense protects the ball and doesn’t have multiple three and outs to wear the defense down in second halves of games.
#13 DOLPHINS 10-6 (D.R 12TH 4.31, PROJ RECORD 9-7)
The Dolphins are ranked ahead of two NFC playoff teams but will not be joining the playoff party because of the top heavy AFC in 2020. This is a team trending in the right direction due to a ball hawking defense that forced 29 turnovers and allowed a league best 31 percent on third down. The big offseason question is to whether the Phins go the Cards 2019 draft route and go QB for second straight year in first round or give Tua Tagovailoa the keys to the boat in south beach for 2021.
#14 WASHINGTON 7-9 (D.R 16TH -0.25 PROJ RECORD 8-8)
Ron Rivera is my choice for coach of the year. After a 2-7 start and the Dwayne Haskins debacle it is a minor miracle that he was able to get the Washington Football team to 7 wins and at least close to respectability for the division winner of the NFC East. Alex Smith is the best story in football for coming back from 17 surgeries to replace a broken tibia and fibula in what is the best feel good story of the 2020 Season.
#15 BEARS 8-8 (D.R 21ST -3.62, PROJ RECORD 7-9)
The Bears made the playoffs which is incredible in it’s own right after a 6 game losing streak midseason. They were not a good football team as the metrics showed but the Bears did find some rhythm late in the season when they made a switch back to Mitch Trubsiky as a signal caller. The Bears are a big under dog in New Orleans in round one but even making it to the party is a great accomplishment for the team from the Windy City.
#16 CARDINALS 8-8 (D.R 13TH 3.20. PROJ RECORD 9-7)
The Cardinals have a very disappointing end to the Season in losing must win games against C.J Beathard and John Wolford let teams in 49ers and Rams. The Cardinals were 5-2 at their bye week but went 3-6 down the stretch and metrics show that the Cardinals were an underachieving team in 2020. The one positive is Kyler Murray’s pro bowl selection validated that he is the Cardinals franchise Quarterback for years to come.
#17 RAIDERS 8-8 (D.R 23RD -6.01, PROJ RECORD 6-10)
The Raiders looked to be a playoff team after a 6-3 start but fell apart in the second half of the season which began with a 43-6 drubbing at the Falcons. The Raiders have great offensive personnel behind a strong offensive line and great skill position talent but need improvements on all three levels on defense. Only factors that kept Raiders from an 0-7 finish was miracle wins at the Jets and Broncos, but they also lost games the should have won against the Chargers and Dolphins so maybe my point is moot, everything is crazy in Vegas!
#18 VIKINGS 7-9 (D.R 17TH -1.24, PROJ RECORD 8-8)
The Vikings underachieved compared to projections but only slightly due to their metrics. The Vikings were a poor mans Titans with an explosive offense and a bad defense. The Vikings can bounce back in 2021 but need to improve on the offensive line and secondary to get back to the playoffs.
#19 PATRIOTS 7-9 (D.R 18TH -2.01, PROJ RECORD 7-9)
The Patriots of 2020 were more of an school football team with a strong running game and no vertical passing game. The Patriots will always be as well prepared as any team with Bill Belicheck at the helm and could bounce back with some key players likely returning from opting out of the 2020 season. The Patriots will almost certainly either be drafting QB or WR in the first round of 2021 draft.
#20 CHARGERS 7-9 (D.R 19TH -2.22, PROJ RECORD 7-9)
The Chargers will be looking for a new coach after relieving Anthony Lynn of his duties earlier today. The Chargers job may be the most attractive job in all of football with a promising defense and a rising star behind center in the former Oregon Duck Justin Herbert.
#21 49ERS 6-10 (D.R 15TH 1.14, PROJ RECORD 8-8)
No team got hit more with more adversity in 2020 than the 49ers. From playing last six weeks in Arizona to almost any significant player on their roster missing time throughout the season. Crazy fact is if Nick Mullens actually didn’t fumble a couple of games away the Niners still may have made the playoffs, here’s a toast to you Kyle Shanahan for still keeping your team respectable, almost a certain bounce back candidate in 2021.
#22 COWBOYS 6-10 (D.R 25TH -8.52, PROJ RECORD 6-10)
The Cowboys were what some would consider a disappointment this year but the numbers don’t lie. The 2020 Cowboys were a mediocre football team through and through. I would expect a lot of turnover on this roster in the offseason as Dallas tries to repair their defensive/offensive lines.
#23 GIANTS 6-10 (D.R 26TH -8.53, PROJ RECORD 6-10)
We almost had the 26th rated team make the playoffs which shows why the NFC East was such a train wreck in 2020. The Giants have a great young front seven but need to improve on the outside on offense and see if Daniel Jones is the guy moving forward, a team trending in the right direction.
#24 PANTHERS 5-11 (D.R 22ND -5.55, PROJ RECORD 6-10)
The Panthers were the ultimate take the points team in 2020. They covered and lost to the Saints, Packers, Chiefs, and Vikings. The Panthers have a young fast defense which could take a leap forward in 2021. The question will be is Teddy Bridgewater the long term solution at QB, at least for 2021 the answer likely is yes.
#25 BRONCOS 5-11 (D.R 28TH -12.96, PROJ RECORD 4-12)
The Broncos had a 4-0 turnover differential and still lost the game yesterday. The Broncos finished with a 4-0 turnover differential yesterday and still finished -16 for the year. Drew Lock has great potential but needs to work on his mechanics in the offseason and well see if Jon Elway is patient enough to give Lock another year.
#26 LIONS 5-11 (D.R 29TH -13.56, PROJ RECORD 4-12)
This may be it for Matt Stafford in the city of automobiles. If so he had a great statistical career (45,109 yards, 282 Td’s 90 passer rating) but went 0-3 in the playoffs. The Lions may have the most work to do of any roster in football (sans Jags) so expect a complete overhaul of this roster in the offseason.
#27 FALCONS 4-12 (D.R 20TH -2.65. PROJ RECORD 7-9)
Now we get to the only team in football which is off by more than 2 wins from their Drew rating the Falcons. The Falcons are an attractive job for a new coach have a lot of talent of both sides of the ball but need to change a culture that is still stuck in the mud from a super bowl meltdown five years ago. If Matt Ryan is on the market will be the hot commodity of the offseason, maybe only rivaled by Carson Wentz (mostly due to Carson’s age and upside).
#28 TEXANS 4-12 (D.R 24TH -6.37, PROJ RECORD 6-10)
The Texans are in complete need of a roster/regime overhaul like in Lions land. The difference between the two is the Texans have an elite QB in Deshaun Watson and are just one year removed from a 4 out of 5 year hold on this division. Under the right stewardship it is not inconceivable to see the Texans turn things around and end back on top of the South in 2021.
#29 EAGLES 4-11 (D.R 27TH -8.82, PROJ RECORD 6-10)
Doug Pedersen had a head scratching end to an head scratching year in the land of the Lincoln bell. This is a roster that is good enough to go from worst to first in 2021 but the biggest question is what do they do with Carson Wentz and is Jalen Hurts the future at Quarterback?
#30 BENGALS 4-11 (D.R 30TH -14.39, PROJ RECORD 4-12)
If Joe Burrow can come back healthy from his ACL and MCL tears the Bengals are one of the few teams near the bottom with true optimism and hope going into the 2021 season. The main priority for the Bengals in the draft will be improving up front to protect their prized asset moving forward.
#31 JETS 2-14 (D.R 32ND -18.51, PROJ RECORD 2-14)
The Jets were really bad in 2020 and will likely be bad again in 2021 with not much talent overall on the roster. The Jets could be a force in 2022 with a great draft (4 picks in the first two rounds) and the right man on the sidelines and behind center. Is that signal caller Sam Darnold or Justin Fields? Well find out in the spring!
#32 JAGUARS 1-15 (D.R 32ST -15.80, PROJ RECORD 3-13)
The Jags took us off the scent on their tanking Philosophy with a week 1 win but then proceeded to lose 15 straight to finish the season. The Jags with over 100 million in cap space, not high immediate expectations and likely Trevor Lawrence will be arguably (with the Chargers and Texans) the most attractive job for a new coach/gm in the offseason.