Hi everyone, it’s officially here, the NFL Season has returned. I am excited for this season. A ton of variables as always. We must not waste any time my friends and get this show on the road!!! I went 54-42-3 in the last six weeks of last Season and 8-5 in the playoffs. I feel very confident we are going to be right around 58-60 percent this year. Let’s go 10-6 this week shall we??
10 AM VEGAS TIME SLOT
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
BILLS -6.5 over steelers
The 2021 Buffalo Bills come into the season with the highest expectations they have had in over a quarter of a century. Josh Allen just got paid a boat load of cash to be the Bills signal caller for most likely the entire decade. Big Ben Roethlisberger is coming into maybe his last season. He is at this point a not so big Ben has he has trimmed down some in the offseason trying to sport his best beach body. However, the Steelers lost a ton on their offensive line in the offseason. This is not as much of a concern as is their defensive backfield in this game. I can see Allen exposing a back end that is good, but has lost some depth in the offseason. A close game at the half turns into a Bills laugher in the second half as Highmark Stadium is singing Eisley Brothers and chucking lawn furniture all over the yard.
Bills win 28-16
jets +4 over PANTHERS
This spread has dropped a bit since being released as there is some late action love on the propellers. The NFL loves storylines and having Sam Darnold playing against the team that jettisoned him for rookie Zach Wilson right away was either cruel, serendipitous or a mixture of both. The big advantage for the Jets is up front against an offensive line that is still learning to play together and the Jets pass rush in the strength of their team. Plus the Panthers pass rush is okay but not great. If the Jets can give Zach Wilson some time he could have a big debut against a secondary that can be thrown on. I’m feeling some Jets fever as exiled former Head Coach Adam Gase is sent further into the depths of coaching hell, at least for one Week.
Jets win 23-20
jags -3 over TEXANS
It appears that Desean Watson is going to be an healthy scratch for the duration of this season. What that means is Watson’s days as the Texans starting signal caller is over and he will certainly get traded at some point. When Watson is sent out of town depends on two factors. 1. The obvious is when the civil lawsuits of the 22 massage therapists is resolved. The Texans are being smart for once and waiting for this case to be resolved because Watson’s value is about half of what it would be if he didn’t have a legal scandal hanging above his head. 2. Is a team desperate enough to pay what the initial asking price is around the deadline (due to desperation). Look for a team like the Dolphins to possibly be in this category if they are out on Tua Tagovailoa immediately after a potential so so start. For the Texans Jags game I like Trevor Lawrence to have a, “holy crap this guy is going to incredible” debut against a team that has the pass rush parallel to the Little Giants n the first half against the Little Cowboys (love 90’s kids sports films, they were the best!!).
jags win 27-17
cards +3 over TITANS
This is going to be a game that almost certainly sees the over. It’s two outstanding offenses going head to head. The Bigger Question is which Quarterback is more dynamic. I am going to go with Kyler Murray over Ryan Tannehill. The Titans defense was ranked 29th in football last season and I do not believe that they addressed the defense enough in the offseason to give me much confidence in their overall improvement. The Cards defensive weakness is in the secondary not up front as Derrick Henry has a good game but not a transcendent game. Kyler Murray has a potential career game, Cards take it.
cards win 38-31
WFT -1 over chargers
I love the Chargers this season overall. But this is a tough spot for the Bolts with a completely revamped offensive line against a dominant from four from Washington. I could see this being a game like the beginning of last season (A WFT-Eagles matchup) in which the Football’s defense just dominates the line of scrimmage and wears down the offensive line by the second half. I think if these teams met late in the season the lighting bolts would roll but in Week 1 I like the WFT defense to dominate the game and Fitzmagic does happen sometimes.
WFT wins 27-17
FALCONS -3.5 OVER eagles
Tony Romo loves Jalen Hurts and the Eagles this year stating they could be the surprise team in all of football. A porous offensive line, an unproven Quarterback, an overrated defense, I could go on and on on why I disagree with the great CBS broadcaster. The cheesesteak city has already blocked me from Twitter and visiting their city for the rest of the year so why not just keep it real at this point. The Falcons are going to play a lot of fun games this season, the defense is bad and they have as many viable running backs as the University of Phoenix. But the dirty birds can chuck it, and on this Sunday Matt Ryan will chuck it around the yard to the tune of 350 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Falcons Win 31-20
COLTS +3 OVER seahawks
The wise man always said take home dogs early in the season. We have no clue what to expect around football but one of things that I’m sure about in 2021 is the Colts are going to be able to run the football, they will run it often and well. I am not sure if the Seahawks will be able to stop the run. The did a decent job against the run last season but when they faced a solid offensive line in the Playoffs against the Rams, Cam Akers ran the ball down their throats. Expect Jonathan Taylor to have a big game and the Seahawks to do something they don’t do very often, lose a close game.
Colts win 27-22
vikings -3 over BENGALS
Remember how we said we love home dogs. Well this is a road team I like in a big way. First off the Vikings weapons against the Bengals linebackers and secondary is a mismatch on paper and will be even more on the field. Second off the Vikings are just a better football team plain and simple. Third off if we want to keep going, Joe Burrow is still working his way back after tearing his ACL and MCL. This is DREW’S PICK OF THE WEEK. Take the Vikings and run with it. It’s an early Sunday window, you trust Captain Kirk Cousins, it’s okay.
Vikings win 34-17
LIONS +8 OVER 49ers
This is the way too many points football game for me. The 49ers will be a competitive team in 2021. But I need to see Jimmy Garoppolo play with some confidence before I start laying over a touchdown with him on the road. The 49ers could blow the Lions out there is an obvious talent discrepancy here. But I do believe that Jared Goff got a little bit of a bad wrap in L.A and believe he will be very competent this season. However, Goff just doesn’t have much talent around him. Easy to argue that since the Lions have the most talent deficient team in the league. But for this week I will say that the Lions will show up and give San Francisco a game but in the end the 49ers will prevail.
49ers win 23-17 (Lions Cover)
4 PM NEW YORK STANDARD TIME
browns +5.5 over CHIEFS
The Chiefs are going to win a lot of games in 2021. They have the most dynamic offense, best quarterback, big play receiver, best receiving tight end, a revamped offensive line, an underrated defense. Wide receiver depth is one of the only weaknesses I see on this roster. The other weakness? Run defense, the Chiefs have over the past several seasons been a team you can run the football on. This is what I can see happening in this football game, the Browns control the clock with an outstanding offensive line and Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt both have big days. This game is an either or game believe it or not. So why not take the points and let’s see who wins the game, the Chiefs will be fine either way.
Browns win 28-27
PATRIOTS -3 OVER dolphins
Tough spot for Tua Tagovailoa here. The Patriots have one of the most complex defenses in all of football. Bill Belichick has owned young Quarterbacks throughout his time as head coach. This is a game that feels like the Patriots defense is going to force a ton of three and outs and their offense does just enough to pull away in the second half. Expect Rookie Mac Jones to not do too much in this game, this is a Damien Harris, James White, Tight End game. Jones will get a lot of easy reads and the Pats defense wins the game. Pats won opening day last year 21-11, let’s have some fun and pick a similar score in this one.
Patriots win 20-11
broncos -3 over GIANTS
How embarrassing is this for the Giants. They are a home dog in Week 1 to a team that won only five games last season. The offseason buzz that was created around the Giants have subsided some with the questionable health of running back Saquon Barkley and the serious concerns around this offensive line. The Broncos are for good reason a dark horse playoff pick in 2021. They have a ton of perimeter talent on both sides of the ball. The Broncos offensive line wasn’t as bad as many pegged last season and should be even better with more continuity. Plus for the first time since Week 4 2019 the Broncos have Bradley Chubb and Von Miller both on the edges coming after the opposing passer. This is a terrible matchup for the Giants front, Daniel Jones gets sacked 5 times in a game that Denver wins ugly.
Broncos Win 23-15
SAINTS +3.5 OVER packers (game in Jacksonville)
We all overreact to Week 1 games, it’s in our nature and thank sports columnists, twitter, FS1 and ESPN for that. The Browns-Chiefs game could be the biggest overreaction but I am going to go with this game and it’s not going to be even close. I absolutely love the Saints in this spot, here is why… 1. The Packers defense up the middle is soft and the Saints offensive line is really good. I can see Alvin Kamara being rode as the big money back he is. The Saints will be able to pick up 5 yards running the football whenever they like. 2. The defense is fast and physical. I love the Saints defense this year, Marshawn Lattimore isn’t going to completely stop DeVante Adams, but can he neutralize him to having a decent but not great game, you bet. Plus the front four can get pressure up the middle on Aaron Rodgers and make him uncomfortable. Watch out rookie Center Josh Myers, tough spot for a first career start. 3. Is the emotional aspect of this game and football. How many times have we seen a team play above their heads for a city or a fallen teammate. Football has this innate ability to almost transcend a team to supernatural heights, not for a full year. But absolutely for a day. This Sunday the Saints are going to play maybe the most inspired game of the Season for their city who got demolished by Hurricane Ida forcing this game to North Florida. Get well soon New Orleans, my heart goes out to everyone in that city right now.
Saints Win 27-24
Waiting All day for Sunday…
RAMS +7.5 over bears
Here is your blowout game of the Week. I would like you to tell me one thing that the Bears are better at than the Rams. Throwing, come on Andy Dalton Vs Matt Stafford, your dumb. How about Receiving corps, Bears may have the best receiver in this game but Rams 2-4 got you. Blocking, nope, front four, it’s close but Aaron Donald so come on. How about the secondary? Um yeah no way, Bears lost their best corner in the offseason. Bears have a good punter.. Well the Rams have the best punter in football. So where in my right mind can I even consider the Bears keeping this game close. Any line in the single digits has me taking the Rams and running with it. NFL did awesome with the opening slate but the Rams first home game with fans should have been the 49ers or Seahawks (fun rivalry games). Like taking candy from a baby, blowout of the week.
Rams Win 31-13
Monday Night Foozball
ravens -4 over RAIDERS
When I was a kid I played a game on Nintendo called Tecmo Super Bowl (the most awesome football video game ever!!). When a player gets injured you have the depressing video game hospital music and they show in the 16-bit graphics the player getting taken off the field by the paramedics with the player sort of limping (it’s outdated graphics, stop hating). Well it seems like before the season even started that the Ravens are having the music dubbed (dum dum dum dum dum dum dum dum dum… you know it if you had ever played that legendary game) at every turn. Their running back room is decimated, now infuriatingly talented but inconsistent corner Marcus Peters is out for the year. So the Ravens are screwed right? Well Latavious Murray is a solid running back and great fit that I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Ravens sign. Plus there are other teams with tons of running back depth that the Ravens can acquire in a trade. They are not in as dire straits as you think. Plus the Ravens defense and front seven is still awesome and the secondary has enough depth to withstand the Peters injury. The Raiders strength of past seasons (blocking) is now a huge question mark. Derek Carr is a demon (and highly underrated) with a clean pocket. But he is one of the worst qualified Quarterbacks in all of football under pressure (sing the lyrics Freddie, under pressure!!!). Want to know who would be awesome to play with in Tecmo Super Bowl? You guessed it Lamar freaking Jackson!!!!
Ravens win 27-20
This Week: 1-0
Season: 1-0
Love the Washington and Denver picks