4th Place- Panthers (2020 Record 5-11)
Key Additions: QB Sam Darnold, CB Jaycee Horn (Drafted), LB Hasson Reddick
Key Departures: QB Teddy Bridgewater, CB Rasul Douglas, T Michael Schofield
2020 Offense: (350 Points 24th in NFL, 349.5 yards per game 21st in NFL)
2020 Defense: (402 points allowed 19th in NFL, 360.1 yards per game 18th in NFL)
Offensive Synopsis: The Panthers in 2020 had a competent but not great unit. Superstar back Christian McCaffrey playing in game was a major reason why the offense was not great last season. I will give the Panthers the benefit of the doubt and say with a healthy McCaffrey the offense will get a boost and be fun to watch. The offensive line is very average and had a little bit of turnover in the offseason but nothing significant. The biggest Question mark is new Quarterback Sam Darnold, who was exiled from the Jets this offseason. I believe that Darnold will be better but not among the elite in football. Overall let’s put this Panthers offense in the middle of the pack.
Prediction (Around League Average)
Defensive Synopsis: The Panthers defensively in 2020 were around the middle of the pack in most statistics. Namely yards allowed and points allowed. Where my concern with the Panthers defense lies is in the lack of a pass rush. The Panthers were in the bottom 10 in pressures, hits and sacks last season. I do not see much improvement in terms of their ability to get to the Quarterback this season. Hasson Reddick had one historic game against Daniel Jones otherwise has been underwhelming in his career, I do have my doubts that he can duplicate last season. The main hope is that last years first round pick Derrick Brown takes a leap forward in 2021. There is no doubt that safety Jeremy Chinn is an up and coming star. I think the Panthers defense is probably about the 23rd best unit in football which puts them in the bottom 10.
Prediction (Bottom 10 Unit)
Conclusion: I hope that new owner David Tepper has the patience to give head coach Matt Ruhle some time as this team is about one year away from being a force. I believe that Ruhle does have the Panthers heading in the right direction. However with that being said I do not believe the Panthers are going to be there in 2021. I still have questions about Sam Darnold’s ability to read defenses and limit mistakes. If Darnold could make a leap to league average the Panthers could finish second in what will be a very close division in terms of the bottom three teams. With the lack of pass rush and Questions around Darnold the Panthers to finish at the bottom of the South in 2021
Record Prediction: 5-12
3rd Place- Falcons (2020 Record 4-12)
Key Additions: TE Kyle Pitts (drafted), S Erik Harris, RB Mike Davis
Key Departures: WR Julio Jones, RB Todd Gurley, C Alex Mack
2020 Offense: (396 Points 16th in NFL, 368.4 Yards per game 18th in NFL)
2020 Defense: (414 Points Allowed 19th in NFL, 398.4 yards allowed per game 29th in NFL)
Offensive Synopsis: The Falcons were an average offense across the board in 2020. QB Matt Ryan had another solid season (26 touchdowns 93.3 passer rating). Out is Julio Jones after two injury riddled seasons. But the Falcons have depth at wide receiver to withstand Jones departure and will be fine there. Kyle Pitts is the one non Quarterback draft choice who is ready to contribute from day one. But the offensive line lost Center Alex Mack in the offseason and the running back room is quite barren with journeymen Mike Davis being the main back at least at seasons begin. However, with Ryan and the excellent passing attack the Falcons offense will still be good but not outstanding in 2021.
Prediction (Around League Average)
Defensive Synopsis: The Falcons defense was bad last season. They didn’t pressure the Quarterback, the secondary was thin and lost Demontae Kazee and Keanu Neal in the offseason to make a thin unit even more thin. The Falcons do have potential to pressure the Quarterback with Dante Fowler Jr. and Grady Jarrett up front but they did not get much pressure on the Quarterbacks in 2020. The sub package defense could be interesting in 2021 but I have to see it to believe it. With the lack of depth and experience in the back end this pass defense could be the worst in football.
Prediction (Bottom 5 Unit)
Conclusion: The Falcons were a 7-9 team trapped in a 4-12 teams body in 2020. The Falcons lost in some of the most ridiculous ways last season. All you have to do is watch the replays of their Week 14-16 losses when they outplayed the Chargers and both of the Super Bowl participants in the Chiefs and Bucs and lost all three games in inexplicable ways. With New head coach Arthur Smith and a new infusion of confidence the Falcons will be about where they should have been last season. Around .500 but not quite good enough to participate in the postseason.
Record Prediction: 8-9
2nd Place- Saints (2020 Record 12-4)
Key Additions: DE Payton Turner (Drafted), TE Nick Vannett, LB Tonah Kpassagnon
Key Departures: QB Drew Brees, WR Emmanuel Sanders, CB Janoris Jenkins
2020 Offense: (482 Points Scored 5th in NFL, 376.4 yards per game 12th in NFL)
2020 Defense: (337 Points allowed 5th in NFL, 310.9 yards allowed per game 4th in NFL)
Offensive Synopsis: No team lost more in the offseason than the Saints did, this goes two fold on offense. They lost Future Hall of Fame Quarterback Drew Brees to retirement. They lost Tight End Jared Cook and Wide Receiver Emmanuel Sanders. Receiver Michael Thomas is still out with an ankle injury and his return date is up in the air. Michael Thomas as also had a public feud with management and some even question his long term future in the big easy. We haven’t even got to new starter Jameis Winston and if he can exorcise his turnover demons of years past. The Saints still have a solid offensive line and Alvin Kamara is still pretty darn good himself at just about everything. I think the Saints flip to the bottom tier but this isn’t the worst offense is football.
Prediction (Bottom 10 Unit)
Defensive Synopsis: GM Mickey Loomis with the Salary Cap hell the Saints were in did a good job of keeping this unit mostly intact going into 2021. They did cut Corner Janoris Jenkins. But the stalwarts of this defense namely Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis and Marshown Lattimore are still in their prime and among the elite at their positions. Even with a struggle early in the season the Saints defense was awesome overall in 2020. Being in the Top 10 in every meaningful stat, yards per play, yards allowed, points allowed, sacks, pressures, you name it. The Saints offense will regress dramatically in 2021, but the defense will not.
Prediction (Top 10 Unit)
Conclusion: The Saints in 2021 will look dramatically different then they did in 2020. Three big things are working against the Saints in their Quest to win their fifth straight division title. First is Drew Brees retiring, not just his play but his leadership was an intangible that cannot be duplicated and will be felt immediately from the gate this season. 2nd in the situation the team is in from the unfortunate destruction left by Hurricane Ida. The Saints will not be in their home city for a minimum four weeks (likely longer if not the whole season). Third and most notable is the Bucs play in this division. The Saints are an obvious regression candidate (as many pundits are pegging). However, the great coaching staff and defense will keep the Saints in the hunt but will still fall short of the postseason at seasons end.
Record Prediction: 8-9
1st Place- Buccaneers (2020 Record 11-5)
Key Additions: RB Giovanni Bernard, LB Joe Tyson (drafted), QB Kyle Trask (drafted)
Key Departures: G Joe Haeg, RB T.J Logan, C A.Q Shipley
2020 Offense (492 points 3rd in NFL, 384.1 yards per game 7th in NFL)
2020 Defense (355 points allowed 8th in NFL, 327.1 yards allowed per game 6th in NFL)
Offensive Synopsis: The 2020 Bucs offense was great especially late in the season as they scored 122 points in their last 10 quarters of regular season football (2 of those was a game in Detroit that the starters didn’t play to further emphasize their dominance). As you can see by my key additions and departures this Bucs team had as little of turnover as an NFL had has in recent memory. I am only pegging the Bucs offense down a touch because I think the Seahawks and Cowboys offenses are better this year. Also, Tom Brady is 44 and can’t keep this up forever. Lastly, the running game will be decent but not great.
Prediction (Top 10 Unit)
Defensive Synopsis: This is where I think the Bucs are going to be elite. They bring everyone back in defense. The back seven is the most athletic back seven in football. If you watched the Super Bowl you know that the speedy Chiefs looked slow trying to run side to side against this defense. Todd Bowles if he doesn’t eventually take over for a retired Bruce Arians will almost certainly get a second head coaching opportunity (maybe after this season) as his defense looks to be the best in the game in 2021.
Prediction (Top Unit in League)
Conclusion: The Bucs do not have a weakness on their entire roster. Many would wonder why I am not picking them to go 17-0 but here are a few reasons why. 1. They have a sneaky tough schedule playing the difficult AFC East, as well as the Rams and Colts. They will lose a couple of those games. 2. Complacency, Tom Brady is the best ever at keeping his team focused but I can certainly see some sloppy performances throughout the season due to complacency. 3. Is Tom Brady himself, he’s 44 years old and even though he looks like a wax statue/alien he has already shown serious decline when under pressure over recent seasons and that will keep getting worse not better. I can see a solid Brady but would be shocked if he approaches 40 touchdown passes again. Still with all of these complaints the Bucs are easily the best team in the NFC this season and the road to Inglewood California will go through Tampa.
Record Prediction: 13-4 1st Seed in NFC