4th Place- 49ers (2020 Record 6-10)
Key Additions: QB Trey Lance (Drafted), C Alex Mack, WR Mohamed Sanu
Key Departures: DE Solomon Thomas, CB Richard Sherman, WR Kendrick Bourne
2020 Offense: (376 points scored 21st in NFL, 370.1 yards per game 15th in NFL)
2020 Defense: (390 Points Scored 17th in NFL, 314.4 yards allowed per game 5th in NFL)
2020 Drew Rating: 1.15 (Projected Record 8-8)
Offensive Synopsis: The 2020 49ers were not an awful offensive team. New Addition Trent Williams proved to still be one of the best left tackles in all of football. Receiver Deebo Samuel when healthy is an absolute menace for opposing defensive coordinators. The issue was turnovers, just watch the tape of former 49ers second string Quarterback Nick Mullins from Weeks 13-15 last season and that will tell you of the 2020 49ers offense and the 2020 49ers as a team. Due to successful when healthy (but rarely healthy) Jimmy Garoppolo being hurt (again) for most of last season the 49ers traded up to get North Dakota State QB Trey Lance 3rd overall to become the new future of the franchise. I believe Lance could be a great one, but with only playing one competitive college game his last two seasons he is not quite ready to play yet. Jimmy G will start the year behind center but looked shaky in preseason. With a decent running back room, competent offensive line and Coach Kyle Shanahan’s ability to draw up creative play calls in the running and passing game, expect the 49ers offense to be solid but not quite among the elite.
Prediction (Around League Average)
Defensive Synopsis: The 49ers defense was very good overall in 2020, even with all of the injuries (namely super star defensive end Nick Bosa missing most the season). The 49ers have Bosa back this season and he should head a solid front four with Javon Kinlaw and Erik Armstead. The difference between this defensive line and the line from two seasons ago that wreaked havoc on the league is the depth (no more Solomon Thomas or Deforest Buckner). They are one injury away from being in trouble up front as they were last season down the stretch. The linebacking core and secondary is solid with middle linebacker Fred Warner, corner Emmanuel Mosley and safety Jimmie Ward. But losing star defensive coordinator Robert Saleh is going to hurt this unit more than anything. Another challenge for this unit statistically is playing six games against three awesome offenses in division and playing the Vikings and Packers outside the division. Do not expect the 49ers defense to be bad, they have too much talent and will overwhelm bad offenses, but will struggle against good ones.
Prediction (Around League Average)
Conclusion: The 49ers are getting applauded around football for being very talent rich and being a bounce back team with a favorable schedule (especially early). Here are my reasons why I think the 49ers will be a Super Bowl contender in 2022 but finish at the bottom of the most competitive division in football for a second straight season in 2021. 1. The Quarterback room. Jimmy Garoppolo looks like he has lost his confidence in his body and ability. He will probably lose his job early in the season for Trey Lance. But Lance is raw and although I believe will be the best in this draft (Trevor Lawrence may so hold my beer) will have a limited play book in 2021 which will limit his ability to make plays consistently (especially on third and longs). 2. The defense is good but not great. I think they will be solid across the board but if you contain their pass rush can throw the ball all over the yard on them. 3. The division is too good. I think the 49ers could take over this division for a while starting next season (unless Arizona gets the right coach for Kyler Murray). But with the Rams and Seahawks still in this division, I do not see a team with more questions that those two teams have finishing above them this season, plain and simple.
Record Prediction: 7-10
3rd Place- Cardinals (2020 Record 8-8)
Key Additions: LB Zavon Collins (Drafted), DT J.J Watt, WR A.J Green
Key Departures: WR Larry Fitzgerald, CB Patrick Peterson, LB Hasson Reddick
2020 Offense: (410 points scored 13th in NFL, 384.6 yards per game 6th in NFL)
2020 Defense: (367 points allowed 12th in NFL, 351.9 yards allowed per game 13th in NFL)
2020 Drew Rating: 3.20 (Projected Record 9-7)
Offensive Synopsis: The 2020 Arizona Cardinals offense was a great unit early and faded late. This likely is attributed to an apparent leg injury that Kyler Murray suffered in a Week 11 loss at Seattle. The Cards offense went from elite to mediocre down the stretch. The one key component of this offense is Murray’s ability to make plays not just with his arms, but with his legs. With running back Chase Edmonds, and an excellent receiving core of DeAndre Hopkins, newly acquired (and apparently looking like the fountain of youth how cometh upon him in camp) A.J Green, and Christian Kirk and very underrated offensive line. This offense should be among the tops in the NFL in 2021 throughout the season. This all of course predicated on Kyler Murray’s health.
Prediction (Top 10 Unit)
Defensive Synopsis: The Cardinals defense was among the middle of the pack in every meaningful defensive stat except sacks (48 were 4th in the NFL). The 2021 Cardinals could be even better than last season at getting to the QB with the return of Chandler Jones and the acquisition of J.J Watt. The corner back room is where the concern lies with this unit. Free agent pickup Malcolm Butler retired after the preseason and they are depending on rookies Marco Wilson and Tay Gowan to cover the slack at covering opposing receivers. That is a recipe for disaster in a division with great receiving cores in Los Angeles and Seattle. With the elite pass rush and athletic linebacker core I will say the Cards defense will be okay in 2021 but could get burned in early down passing situations.
Prediction (Around League Average)
Conclusion: The Cardinals are one of the toughest teams to gauge in 2021. They could easily win 12 games and the division or 6 games and contemplating a rebuild. There is enough talent to win now and if they do not win now the GM and head coach are almost certainly out. The cornerback room is as dire as any unit in the NFL and is a unit that will get exposed until addressed. But with the excellent pass rush, dynamic offense and favorable schedule. I believe the Cardinals will edge out the Saints and WFT for the last playoff spot in the NFC. Kyler Murray ascends into stardom and saves everyone’s job for now.
Record Prediction: 9-8 7th Seed in NFC
2nd Place- Rams (2020 Record 10-6)
Key Additions: QB Matthew Stafford, WR Desean Jackson, LB Chris Garrett (drafted)
Key Departures: QB Jared Goff, S John Johnson, CB Troy Hill
2020 Offense: (372 points scored 23rd in NFL, 377 yards per game 11th in NFL)
2020 Defense: (296 points allowed 1st in NFL, 281.9 yards allowed per game 1st in NFL)
2020 Drew Rating: 9.35 (Projected Record 11-5)
Offensive Synopsis: The Rams have primarily the same unit as they did in 2020 coming into 2021. The entire offensive line returned, all of the top receivers returned, Tyler Higbee is still the main tight end, except… Oh yeah the Rams traded exiled Quarterback Jared Goff and two first round picks to get the ever underrated but overrated at the same time Matthew Stafford. How was Matthew Stafford overrated? He would put up great stats for always middling football teams. He never even elevated the Lions to even a single playoff win in 12 years. Why is he underrated? Matthew Stafford is 16th all time in passing yards with 45,109 total. He went 74-90-1 which is not great but the Lions in the previous 8 years before Stafford arrived were 31-97. Stafford never had a running game and only occasionally had a competent defense yet he led the Lions to three playoff appearances and four winning seasons. I’ll say the Rams offense gets a boost from Stafford but losing running back Cam Akers is a killer, let’s meet in the middle and say the offense is decent but not elite.
Prediction (Around League Average)
Defensive Synopsis: The Rams defense led the world in everything last season, yards allowed per game, yards allowed per play, passing yards allowed per game, points allowed, 2nd in sacks (damn you Steelers!). They have the best cover corner in football (Jalen Ramsey), the best overall defensive player (Aaron Donald). So why couldn’t they be the best overall defense again in 2021.? 1. is the division they play, Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury have to solve the Sean McVay, Aaron Donald riddle some year right? 2. They have to play the Bucs and Ravens who no one else in their division have the not so privilege of playing. 3. They lost two of Ramsey’s best secondary mates (both to Cleveland) in John Johnson and Troy Hill. Let’s say the defense is still excellent but not quite the best in football in 2021 (think 2016 Broncos from 2015 Broncos drop off)
Prediction (Top 5 Unit)
Conclusion: The Rams are going to be a good football team in 2020. But man they did not have the schedule makers do them any favors this season. They have to play road games at Green Bay, Minnesota, Baltimore and Indianapolis outside of division. They have six tough games in division. They have had the Seahawks and Cardinals number as of late but I can see the great Quarterbacks in Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray making some adjustments to at least make the Rams 2-2 in those games this year. But the tiebreaker has to go to the fact that the Rams are playing two of the best three teams in football in the Bucs and Ravens (whom the Seahawks get to play the declining Steelers and Saints instead), so much for getting an advantage of your biggest competitor who playing a first place schedule.
Record Prediction: 11-6 5th Seed in NFC
1st Place- Seahawks (2020 Record 12-4)
Key Additions: TE Gerald Everett, DT Poona Ford, T Stone Forsythe (drafted)
Key Depatures: CB Shaquil Griffin, LB K.J Wright, CB Quentin Dunbar
2020 Offense: (459 Points Scored 8th in NFL, 369.5 yards per game 17th in NFL)
2020 Defense: (371 points allowed 15th in NFL, 380.6 yards allowed per game 22nd in NFL)
2020 Drew Rating: 5.09 (Projected Record 10-6)
Offensive Synopsis: The Seahawks were one of the most dynamic offenses in football in the first half. But in the second half the offense declined some. What happened was defensive coordinators adjusted to the Hawks vaunted passing attack. Plus the pressure rate was higher on Russell Wilson and he sometimes would bail on a play too early. For one of the smartest Quarterbacks in football I am not worried one bit about the late season struggles from Russell Wilson. Look for Wilson to have his best season of his career this season. The addition of tight end Gerald Everett from division rival Rams could be a division changer. Wilson has always loved to throw the to tight ends on third and medium and look for Everett to be a big time chains mover. The offensive line might be the best Wilson has had since early in career and running backs Chris Carson and Rashad Penny are back and healthy. In other words I’m extremely bullish on the Hawks offense in 2021.
Prediction (Top 5 Unit)
Defensive Synopsis: What is taking the Seahawks down from a Super Bowl contender to a team that will be in a dog fight with the Cardinals and Rams for the NFC West this season is the Seahawks defense. They were outside of getting to the Quarterback not very good in 2020 (and historically bad before acquiring Carlos Dunlap from the Bengals and Safety Jamal Adams returning from an early season injury). The Cardinals secondary is bad but the Seahawks might be just as bad on the back end with absolutely no corner depth behind D.J Reed and Tre Flowers. The front seven is okay but we have to see if young linebacker Jordyn Brooks can replace longtime Seahawks mainstay K.J Wright. I have my doubts there and I think the 2020 Seahawks will end up in a lot of shootouts this season.
Prediction (Bottom 10 Unit)
Conclusion: The 2020 Seahawks are going to be a fun team to watch. If you like fantasy football and high scoring football games this is your team. The offense looks to be the best it has ever been since Russell Wilson came into the NFL. D.K Metcalf could have a Randy Moss/Julio Jones peak season if he can cure his drops. The defense will be able to get to the passer but to say it’s dire in the back end would be kind. What has me picking the Hawks to win this division is the belief in Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll to use their voodoo magic to win close games, because they have done it so much over the years that there must be a science behind it at this point. I’ll put money on the Rams being better metrically which they were last season (yet still finished two games back). However, I am picking the Seahawks to win the most competitive division in football due to a conference tie breaker because the Hawks beat the Saints and the Rams lose to the Bucs, a cruel world out there.
Record Prediction: 11-6 3rd Seed in NFC