4th Place- Lions (2020 Record 5-11)
Key Additions: T Penei Sewell (drafted), QB Jared Goff, RB Jamaal Williams
Key Departures: QB Matthew Stafford, WR Kenny Golliday, DE Everson Griffin
2020 Offense: (377 Points 20th in NFL, 350.2 yards per game 20th in NFL)
2020 Defense: (519 points allowed 32nd in NFL, 419.8 yards per game 32nd in NFL)
Offensive Synopsis: The Lions offense last year was competent, especially when Matthew Stafford lined up behind center. The Lions were able to win some thrilling games early in the season but faded late with Stafford suffering from various injuries. The Lions lost their top three wideouts in Danny Amendola, Kenny Golliday and Marvin Jones Jr. and replaced them with the oft injured Tyrell Williams and young unproven players. The offensive line should be improved with Penei Sewell, but outside of tight end T.J Hockenson the Lions pass catching targets are the worst in all of football. Going to be a long first year in Detroit for new Quarterback Jared Goff.
Prediction (Worst in League)
Defensive Synopsis: The Lions were last in the NFL in yards allowed, yards per play allowed and points allowed in 2020. With improved health and the improvement of potential shutdown corner Jeff Okudah the Lions defense will not be the worst in football this season. The big question is how much improved will they be. It will depend on the health and production of veterans Jamie Collins, Michael Brockers and Trey Flowers. The Lions defense will still be bad, but not quite as bad as last season.
Prediction (Bottom 5 Unit)
Conclusion: Bad offense, bad defense, new coach stating he’s going to bite knee caps off in his opening press conference. What could go right for the Lions this season at this point? Well on one positive they have a last place schedule (which means they get to play Philadelphia and Atlanta who the rest of their division does not get to play) and they have the Bears (who I’ll get to in a moment) also in their division. The Lions are starting over and it will take time for them to be even a competitive team as they were for many years with Matthew Stafford. In more good news I’m not picking them to be the worst team in football this year, that distinction goes to you Philly.
Record Prediction: 3-14
3rd place- Bears (2020 Record 8-8)
Key Additions: QB Justin Fields (drafted), QB Andy Dalton, T Elijah Wilkinson
Key Departures: QB Mitch Trubisky, T Bobby Massie, CB Kyle Fuller
2020 Offense: (372 points scored T-22 in NFL, 331.4 yards per game 26th in NFL)
2020 Defense: (370 points allowed 14th in NFL, 344.9 yards allowed per game 11th in NFL)
Offensive Synopsis: The Bears offense was among the bottom of the league in every meaningful statistic. Mitch Trubisky was not great but also not as bad as the pundits were making him out to be. Trubisky went 6-3 as a starter last season and 25-13 as a starter under Matt Nagy. Even though I’ve criticized Trubisky over the years he is not the JaMarcus Russell, Jake Locker type level of bust either and should at least be applauded for having some success in Chi Town. Trubisky will have a long career as a backup/bridge starter. Speaking of a bridge starter, Andy Dalton is the definition of such and I think he will give way to rookie Justin Fields before you know it. Fields in preseason showed his athleticism and arm strength, but is also very raw. He has the tools to be great but there isn’t much to work with here talent wise, will be a grind of a first season for the Ohio State product.
Prediction (Bottom 5 Unit)
Defensive Synopsis: The Bears defense has historically has some great units and gets a lot of publicity for the hard nosed town Chicago is. However, in 2020 the Bears defense was middle of the pack in most defensive stats. They still have Khalil Mack and Akeim Hicks up front, but they lost their best corner in Kyle Fuller who was a cap casualty and didn’t get a viable replacement. The Bears defense will still be competent in 2021 but I do not see them as a Top 10 Unit at this point. It will take a herculean effort from Hicks and Mack up front to put this unit in the elite category.
Prediction (Around League Average)
Conclusion: The Bears were somehow a playoff team last season (even with a midseason 6 game losing streak). It is hard for many including myself to think this Bears team will be anywhere near the postseason in 2021. They have a new young quarterback, an average to below average offensive line, Allen Robinson and a whole lot of questions marks at the skill positions, a slightly regressing defense, and a lame duck head coach and GM. It all adds up to Justin Fields having a whole new leadership team in the Windy City in 2022.
Record Prediction: 5-12
2nd Place- Vikings (2020 Record 7-9)
Key Additions: CB Patrick Peterson, CB Bashaud Breeland, DE Dalvin Tomlinson
Key Departures: DE Ifeadi Odenigbo, G Dakota Dozier, LB Todd Davis
2020 Offense: (430 Points 11th in NFL, 393.3 yards per game 4th in NFL)
2020 Defense: (475 points allowed 29th in NFL, 393.3 yards allowed per game 27th in NFL)
Offensive Synopsis: For all of the criticism that Kirk Cousins gets I must say the Vikings offense was pretty dynamic in 2020. The offense was centered around superstar running back Dalvin Cook (1,557 yards rushing, 16 touchdowns) and rookie superstar receiver Justin Jefferson (88 receptions, 1,400 yards, 7 touchdowns). With Adam Thielen still being in his prime and a very underrated offensive line the Vikings offense who isn’t discussed much will remain one of the best and efficient units in 2021.
Prediction (Top 10 Unit)
Defensive Synopsis: A unit that had been one of the best in football the previous six seasons took a nose dive down to the bottom tier of the league last season. The Vikings issue was they could not cover the pass. So the Vikings went out and addressed the corner position in the offseason signing veteran corners Patrick Peterson and Bashaud Breeland. The Vikings also brought in Defensive Tackle Dalvin Tomlinson to help all pro defensive end Danielle Hunter get to opposing Quarterbacks and clog up running lanes. Do I believe the Vikings will be one of the best defenses in football again. I do not, but I do think their defense will be massively improved from last season.
Prediction (Around League Average)
Conclusion: The Vikings were an obvious regression candidate from 2019 to 2020 with all of the cap casualties they had that offseason. But the Vikings were in a better cap position this offseason and vastly improved their defense in the offseason. With the superstar status of Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen (along with the vastly underrated Kirk Cousins, yet not elite) the offense will be great again. The Vikings will certainly return to the postseason, the only question is can they challenge the Packers for the division. I think so, but in the end they will fall short in that quest.
Record Prediction: 11-6 6th Seed in NFC
1st Place- Packers (2020 Record 13-3)
Key Additions: CB Eric Stokes (Drafted), WR Randall Cobb, QB Blake Bortles
Key Departures: C Corey Linsley, CB Traumon Williams, CB Will Redmond
2020 Offense: (509 points 1st in NFL, 389 yards per game 5th in NFL)
2020 Defense: (369 points allowed 13th in NFL, 334 yards allowed per game 9th in NFL)
Offensive Synopsis: Aaron Rodgers had the second best year of his Hall of Fame career in 2020 at age 37, throwing for 48 touchdowns and winning league MVP. Rodgers frustration with the organization has been well documented the Packers offseason. However, on a good note the Packers had almost no major roster turnover this offseason (outside of losing Center Corey Linsley which is a big loss). DeVante Adams is in a contract season, so expect maybe his best season yet. Aaron Jones and A.J Dillon are a great 1-2 Running back combo. The only question mark is 2nd Round pick Josh Myers at Center. Regardless, this should still be one of the most dynamic offenses in all of football.
Prediction (Top 3 Unit)
Defensive Synopsis: The Packers just like on offense bring the majority of their defense back in 2021. They still have Kenny Clark clogging up the middle. The Smith brothers terrorizing Quarterbacks on third down. And Jaire Alexander and Kevin King tag blanketing the receivers on the outside. The big question will is with second corner Kevin King, who is a solid corner but had a dreadful day in the NFC Championship game and many pundits are curious if King will bounce back. I believe King will bounce back for the most part and the Packers will again have a solid, but not great overall defense.
Prediction (Around League Average)
Conclusion: The Packers have gone 13-3 and 13-3 each of the last two seasons. Why would I not have the Packers as good as the last two seasons with primarily the same roster and no issues of any key player aging. One is the Center position, having a rookie starting there could bring some lack of communication and continuity up front early in the season. Plus the friction with Aaron Rodgers and the front office has to linger some at least early in the year. Lastly, it’s the schedule. The Packers have to play at Kansas City and against the brutal NFC West. Those challenges alone will lead to small but not dramatic fall back. Do not get swallowed into the Packers regressing off a cliff chatter you hear in the world of social media, the Packers will still be one of the best teams in the NFC in 2021.
Record Prediction: 12-5 2nd Seed in NFC