4th place- Texans (2020 Record 4-12)
Key Additions: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Phillip Lindsay, LB Jordan Jenkins
Key Departures: DT J.J Watt, WR Will Fuller, TE Darren Fells
2020 Offense: (384 points 19th in NFL, 375.3 yards per game 13th in NFL)
2020 Defense: (464 points allowed 27th in NFL, 416.8 yards allowed per game 30th in NFL)
Drew Rating: -6.37 (Projected Record 6-10)
Offensive Synopsis: The most shocking stat of the 2020 Texans was that the Texans were first in yards per play averaging just under 6.5 yards per play. It showed their explosive nature and their ability to make big plays. What this is mainly attributed to is the leap from QB Deshaun Watson into the elite NFL Signal Callers (Watson’s 112.4 passer rating was second in football behind only Aaron Rodgers). Even with a so so offensive line and decent (but not great) receivers Deshaun Watson would make stew out of poo. But with a legal case against Watson and us not even knowing if Deshaun Watson is going to play we will rank the Texans in the bottom ten in football with a chance to hover to the middle if Watson can play close to a full 17 games this year.
Prediction (Bottom 10 Unit)
Defensive Synopsis: The Texans defense is where the struggles will really occur this season (as it did last season). The Texans were in the bottom 10 in every noticeable stat on defense last season and there is no reason to believe they will be any better at stopping opponents in 2021. They lost their leader in J.J Watt (who had a nice bounce back season last year) and replaced Watt with unproven Vincent Taylor. The Secondary will also be hurting to start the year as the Texans best corner (Bradley Roby) is suspended for the first 6 games of 2021. You chalk up no pass rush, okay secondary missing their best player for the start of year, and mediocre linebacker play and you have the worst unit in the NFL. The Texans will have to win a lot of shootouts this year to get some W’s.
Prediction (Worst Unit in League)
Conclusion: Most experts are predicting the Texans to be the worst in football. I think there are some worse teams (at least record wise) over in the NFC. But no doubt, the Texans will be a very bad football team in 2021. I am going to predict that Deshaun Watson plays some (before either getting traded or suspended) which will give the Texans a few wins over the course of the year. But with an unproven head coach in David Culley, and a mess in ownership and upper management. The Texans are a long way away from being a contender again even with a franchise Quarterback. Crazy to think this team had a 24-0 lead in a divisional playoff game just 19 months ago. Life happens fast in the NFL.
Record Prediction: 4-13
3rd place- Titans (2020 Record 11-5)
Key Additions: WR Julio Jones, LB Bud Dupree, DE Denico Autry
Key Departures: DE Jadevon Clowney, CB Malcolm Butler, CB Adoree’ Jackson
2020 Offense: (491 points 4th in NFL, yards per game 396.4 3rd in NFL)
2020 Defense: (439 points allowed 24th in NFL, 398.3 yards allowed per game 28th in NFL)
Drew Rating: 4.73 (Projected Record 9-7)
Offensive Synopsis: The Titans offense was electric in 2020. Led by all pro running back Derrick Henry who had 2,027 yards and 17 touchdowns last season all while averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Derrick Henry is a beast and doubt him at your own peril but Derrick Henry will not even sniff 2,000 yards this season in my humble opinion. Here is my data to back up this fact, all of the other previous seven running backs who ran for 2,000 yards not a single one of those backs even eclipsed 1,400 yards rushing to following season. I think Derrick Henry is a special cat so let’s say he’s at 1,400 yards this year to set the water mark for a back coming off a 2 k year. Ryan Tannehill got exposed against some of the better defenses last year (Colts Week 10, Packers Week 16, Ravens playoff game). They Titans are playing in a division with no great defenses outside of Indy (However, playing the AFC East with decent to good defenses for four games and the NFC West outside of the Seahawks a lot of good defenses especially the pass rush), Tannehill will almost certainly regress some, let’s say he’ll still be above average in 2021, but I don’t foresee a top ten season out of him. The Offensive line is still solid which should help especially with the return of left tackle Taylor Lewan. The biggest question is can Juilo Jones return to the elite receiver he was for his first 8 seasons or the injury plagued receiver of the last two? They will need Jones to contribute with the losses of Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith. Many pundits may think I am being harsh here but I think Arizona, Minnesota, Baltimore and Dallas (spoilers for offenses I really like this year) jumps the Titans which knocks the Titans offense to the decent but not great category, in the Browns and Raiders range of offense in 2021.
Prediction (Around League Average)
Defensive Synopsis: The Titans defense was to put it lightly awful in 2020. They lost their two best corners (Butler, Jackson) and one of their best defensive lineman (Clowney even though he did have a very disappointing season to begin with). So how can I gauge this unit but to continue to state that the Titans defense is going to be bad again this year. I think Bud Dupree was one of the most underrated pickups in all of football and will help a pass rush that was abysmal last year (19 sacks total, 30th in league). But without an elite secondary to help if the Titans don’t get home the Titans are going to get shredded by air attacks all season. I’ll say the Titans improve a tad of defense but not enough to get out of the bottom 10.
Prediction (Bottom 10 Unit)
Conclusion: I know I’m being hard on the Titans (a team that won 11 games last season) but as I’ve said to all of you many times Drew keeps it real. This is a team that lost it’s offensive coordinator. Their second and third pass catchers at an area they don’t have much depth (did get a high risk high reward pickup to counter that possibly). Retooled the defense (maybe for the better remains to be seen), and has an absolutely brutal out of division schedule (at least they get the Bills and Chiefs at home I guess??). I want to pick better results for the Titans but for a team that outperformed their metrics last season all those factors has me predicting the Titans to have not have a Steelers like drop off. But nonetheless, a drop out of the playoffs. I suppose Drew is not allowed to go to the Nashville bar scene anytime soon.
Record Prediction: 8-9
2nd Place- Jaguars (2020 Record 1-15)
Key Additions: QB Trevor Lawrence (drafted), CB Shaquill Griffin, FS Rayshawn Jenkins,
Key Departures: CB Rashaan Melvin, DE Adam Gotsis, CB D.J Hayden
2020 Offense: (306 points 30th in NFL, 326.1 yards per game 28th in NFL)
2020 Defense: (492 points allowed 31st in NFL, 417.7 yards per game 31st in NFL)
Drew Rating: -15.80 (Projected Record 3-13)
Offensive Synopsis: The Jags offense was bad in every way in 2020. Coach Doug Marrone unwisely benched a decent (but not great) Gardner Minshew for overwhelmed rookie Jake Luton. It was almost like Marrone had thrown in the white towel. With that change a Jags team that was competitively losing early in the season started getting blown out of games in the second half. Out went Marrone after 15 consecutive losses and in comes college football legend Urban Meyer. Urban Meyer had been coveted by the NFL for years and he’s as smart as they come. There is a reason why Urban Meyer chose Jacksonville. They have a ton of young talent and not high expectations, and they had Trevor Lawrence sitting there for them (since they had the first overall pick). Trevor Lawrence has all of the skills to be an elite player in the NFL. I think Trevor Lawrence is the odds on favorite for rookie of the year but realistically I do not think the Jags offense will be great even with my high praise of the Clemson Tiger. Let’s say they are at the edge of the bottom 10 in the league. The biggest concern for this unit is the offensive line that hasn’t been good for several years and is still very unproven. I think the Jags will have some games where the offense will be a fun unit to watch and other games where they are a work in progress to be kind.
Prediction (Bottom 10 Unit)
Defensive Synopsis: This is where I have the Jags making a leap to respectability in 2020. The Jags were one of the worst defensive units in football but I think this will be one of the most improved units in all of football in 2020. Biggest reason being they added solid vets in Shaquill Griffin and Rayshawn Jenkins to help implement an aggressive pressing style of defense. The Jags secondary will improve from bad to average (maybe even slightly better than average) with their offseason moves. If the talented 2019 first round pick C.J Henderson can get his confidence back this unit could be among the best in football. With the other Josh Allen, Myles Jack and who I think could also be defensive rookie of the year K’Lavon Chaisson they lead an hyper athletic front seven. I do not think the Jags will be an elite unit on defense by any means but I have enough confidence with the infusion of talent on this unit and actually having a good coaching staff (former Ravens defensive line coach now Jags D coordinator Joe Cullen is a star in the making), the Jags will be competent on the defensive side.
Prediction (Around League Average)
Conclusion: As you can see from my raving reviews I think the Jags will be the most improved team in the league over last season. I love the Meyer hiring, the Jags draft was also fantastic and they had a great offseason. Do I think the Jags will go from 1-15 to the playoffs (ala the 08 Dolphins or the 2012 Colts who were 2-14 the previous year). I will not go that far but what I do see if a very competitive football team that will take advantage of a weak division. A favorable early schedule (a last place schedule) and a franchise Quarterback ready to take on the league. There are surprises in football every year, how can there not be with only a 17 game sample size. Here is my big surprise right here. Jags finish in 2nd place and remain in fringe playoff contention throughout the season.
Record Prediction: 8-9
1st Place- Colts (2020 Record 11-5)
Key Additions: QB Carson Wentz, DE Twity Paye (drafted), G Chris Reed
Key Departures: QB Philip Rivers, QB Jacoby Brissett, TE Trey Burton
2020 Offense: (451 points 9th in NFL, 378.1 yards per game 10th in NFL)
2020 Defense: (362 points allowed 10th in NFL, 332.1 yards allowed per game 8th in NFL)
Drew Rating: 8.04 (Projected Record 11-5)
Offensive Synopsis: The 2020 Indianapolis Colts had an aging Phillip Rivers under center. With Rivers retiring the Colts will turn to exiled from Philadelphia Carson Wentz. Wentz was one of the best Quarterbacks in all of football down the stretch in 2019 but got very sloppy with his play in 2020 trying to make too much happen far too often. Going from one of the worst offensive lines to one of the best will help Wentz stay upright in 2021. There is rightfully so a concern with Wentz health after having foot surgery. From the stories I’ve been reading Carson Wentz should be good to go by Week 1 of the regular season which will help immensely with backup Jacob Eason not being ready to play in games. Jonathan Taylor is my pick for the rushing yards champ this year. The Colts have a physically imposing offensive line. Look for Taylor to get around 300 carries for 1,500 yards as the Colts will ice many games away on the ground this year. Overall however, I can’t put the Colts in the top 10, too many good offenses, place them in the middle of the pack.
Prediction (Around league average)
Defensive Synopsis: The Colts defense had some COVID and injury concerns late in the season that dropped them from the Top 3 early to near the bottom of the top 10 in most statistics for the season. However, with play makers across the board, including two of the best at their positions in all of football in defensive tackle Deforest Buckner and outside linebacker Darius Leonard it’s hard for me not to see the Colts defense being an elite unit in 2020. It does not hurt that the Colts will not be playing many offensive juggernauts either (I know that they play the Hawks, Bucs and Bills that’s 3 out of 17 games). I will put this fast physical unit in the Top 3 of football in 2021.
Prediction (Top 3 Unit)
Conclusion: This is the weakest division in the AFC and second weakest (outside of the NFC East) in all of football. I do not think the Colts are going to be a juggernaut by any means this season. Carson Wentz coming off foot surgery and a psychologically damaging season concerns me greatly. But the Colts roster is by far the best in this division (without any other roster even close overall). The defense is going to be awesome and the offense as long as Wentz can protect the football should be solid. This is more of a default pick with me being completely out on the Titans, as I do have the Colts winning this division comfortably and returning the postseason for the second year in a row.
Record Prediction: 11-6 4th Seed in the AFC