4th place- Raiders (2020 Record 8-8)
Key Additions: RT Alex Leatherwood (drafted), DE Yannick Ngakoue, CB Casey Heyward
Key Departures: S Lamarcus Joyner, C Rodney Hudson, T Trent Brown
2020 Offensive Stats: (434 points scored 10th in NFL, 383.3 yards per game 8th in NFL)
2020 Defensive Stats: (478 points allowed 30th in NFL, 389.1 yards allowed per game 25th in NFL)
Drew Rating: -6.01 (Projected Record 6-10)
Offensive Synopsis: I am going to defend Derek Carr very aggressively in this piece. Derek Carr is the best thing going a very overrated overall roster. The Raiders were a really good offensive football team last season as they had an outstanding offensive line and one of the best running in football. However, the Raiders let a lot go in the offseason up front trading line stalwarts Rodney Hudson and Trent Brown. They also did not retain productive wide receiver Nelson Agholor. The Raiders are hoping that Henry Ruggs III will become more than an occasional home run hitter and become more a Mike Trout type then a Russell Branyan type (to correlate I’m talking about a complete player over a low average boom or bust player). With the losses upfront I have to downgrade the Raiders from good to average in 2021.
Prediction (Around League Average)
Defensive Synopsis: The Raiders defense in 2020 was flat out bad. There is no sugarcoating around a unit that was in the bottom ten in any stat that mattered in 2020. The Raiders overhauled their defense in the offseason in adding Yannick Ngakoue and Casey Heyward. My concern with the Raiders is I do not see a unit that will generate a pass rush and has absolutely no depth at the corner and safety positions. Having to play the most athletic assortment of receivers any secondary has to deal with in division makes me terrified for new coordinator Gus Bradley this season. This unit could easily give up over 30 points a game this season.
Prediction (Bottom 3 Unit)
Conclusion: The days may be dark in Vegas first season with fans attending their home games (not just because it gets dark at 4:30 in the winter here). Jon Gruden has far too much money left on his contract to be on the hot seat this season but it may get a little warm beginning next year. Derek Carr will be solid again as he was last year (a 101.8 passer rating). But with a downgraded offensive line and the lack of playmakers on defense the Raiders will fall back into last place in the AFC West in 2021.
Predicted Record: 7-10
3rd Place- Broncos (Last Season 5-11)
Key Additions: CB Patrick Surtain II (drafted), QB Teddy Bridgewater, CB Kyle Fuller
Key Departures: T Juwan James, RB Philip Lindsay, SS Will Parks
2020 Offense: (323 Points 28th in NFL, 335.6 yards per game 23rd in NFL)
2020 Defense: (446 points allowed 25th in league, 367.9 yards per game 21st in NFL)
Drew Rating: -12.96 (Projected Record 4-12)
Offensive Synopsis: The Broncos were a mess offensively last season. The issues were turnovers. The Trio of Drew Lock/Jeff Driskel/Brett Rypien threw 23 interceptions last season which was by far the worst in football. The offensive line improved primarily behind vastly improved play from left tackle Garrett Bowles. The running back room is solid behind Melvin Gordon and rookie Javonte Williams (who has popped in preseason). The receiving core is also dynamic with the young quartet of Cortland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick and K.J Hamler. The only thing that is holding this team back is the Quarterback. The Broncos chose to go with veteran pickup Teddy Bridgewater over third year gunslinger Drew Lock. We shall see how this works, for now I’ll graduate the Broncos to the middle of the pack. Just too much talent for this unit to be bad.
Prediction (Around League Average)
Defensive Synopsis: The Broncos had a significant amount of injuries on defense last season. Von Miller of course being the biggest loss missing the entire season. The biggest issue for the 2020 Broncos was having maybe the worst cornerback room in the league as their number one corner was a third round rookie (Michael Ojemudia) who did not perform poorly under the circumstances but was put in a difficult situation. You could argue that the Broncos have the deepest cornerback room in football this year with the additions of Ronald Darby, Kyle Fuller and first round pick Patrick Surtain II (Ojemudia is by far the best 5th corner in football). But the defensive line is a concern of mine and the linebacking core is solid but no elite athletes there. I think the Broncos will be fine defensively but they are not quite at the level as mid 2010’s no fly zone.
Prediction (Around League Average)
Conclusion: Because the Broncos are not the TV draw they were for many years they have been largely ignored over the past five years. But this roster is all of a sudden (don’t laugh) one of the ten best in all of football. There have been some underrated drafts in recent years and this team would be a surefire playoff team if there was even a decent Quarterback option. I will make a bold statement and say this would have been a fringe Super Bowl contender with Aaron Rodgers. Now let’s get back to our regularly scheduled program. With all of the ridiculous receiver and corner talent I bet Broncos first team practice is quite fun to watch on the outside. However, both areas of the trenches are average to mediocre. The Quarterback situation is dicey. I initially thought with all of this talent that the higher upside Drew Lock would have been the better choice. But when your job is on the line as Head Coach Vic Fangio’s it makes sense going to the safer option in Teddy Bridgewater. I think the Broncos are going to be everyone’s Sunday ticket team as they will be a very fun team to watch in 2021 and I have no clue if Bridgewater retains the job all season but somehow this very fascinating weird Broncos team makes it into the playoffs with a better common opponents record over the Browns and Dolphins this year.
Record Prediction: 9-8 7th Seed in AFC
2nd place- Chargers (2020 Record 7-9)
Key Additions: T Rashawn Slater (drafted), G Matt Feiler, C Corey Linsley
Key Departures: CB Casey Heyward, DE Melvin Ingram, TE Hunter Henry
2020 Offense: (384 points 18th in NFL, 382.1 yards per game 9th in NFL)
2020 Defense: (426 points allowed 23rd in NFL, 343. yards allowed per game 10th in NFL)
Drew Rating: -2.22 (Projected Record 7-9)
Offensive Synopsis: For how much Browns fans, Bills fans, Steelers fans and Titans fans hate me right now, I’m going to become everyone’s best friend in Southern California with the high praise I have for Justin Herbert. Herbert set NFL Rookie Records for the most passing touchdowns and completions. He made some of the most awesome throws any QB made last season. He wasn’t even supposed to start and had 5 minutes to prepare for his first ever start against the defending Super Bowl Champions and took them to overtime before losing. Herbert did this with the worst rated offensive line in football. The Chargers if you see my key additions completely revamped their offensive line in the offseason. If the unit up front could even be average what could Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams do? I’ll tell you what they can do, become one of the top ten offensive units in all of football.
Prediction (Top 10 Unit)
Defensive Synopsis: The Chargers defense was about league average last year. The Chargers might need to change their medical staff as they have key injures every season on that side of the football. Safety Derwin James and pass rusher Joey Bosa are back in the mix in 2021 and if healthy will single handily reek havoc on opposing offensive coordinators. But with the departure of corners Casey Heyward and Kevin King being traded at the deadline last season the Chargers will be depending on rookie Asante Samuel Jr. and five year veteran Michael Davis to pick up the slack. I think this defense will be solid but I’m not ready to put them into the elite of football quite yet.
Prediction (League Average Unit)
Conclusion: The Chargers lost a ton of close games last season, some to the point of comedy. The one positive that came out of last season was Justin Herbert exploding onto the scene. He put up probably the best rookie Quarterback season in the history of football without much help up front. I think the Chargers will be a little bit more balanced with a solid running back room and a vastly improved offensive line. If Derwin James and Joey Bosa can stay healthy the defense will be solid as well. You could argue the Broncos have more athletes but with the more stable Quarterback situation I’m picking the Chargers to finish ahead of their divisional rivals from the rocky mountains. The Bolts will not be near the Chiefs in terms of fighting for the division but I think Justin Herbert will be playing in his first career playoff game in 2021 (or 2022 if you go by the calendar).
Record Prediction: 10-7 5th seed in AFC
1st place-Chiefs (2020 Record 14-2)
Key Additions: G Joe Thuney, G Kyle Long, T Orlando Brown Jr.
Key Departures: T Eric Fisher, WR Sammy Watkins, C Austin Rieter
2020 Offense: (473 points 6th in NFL, 415.8 yards per game 1st in NFL)
2020 Defense: (362 Points allowed 11th in NFL, 358.3 yards allowed per game 16th in NFL)
Drew Rating: 12.98 (Projected Record 12-4)
Offensive Synopsis: The Chiefs were the number 1 offense in football in 2020 in yards. 3rd in 3rd down percentage and 6th in points scored. The main issues with the 2020 Chiefs was their inability to hold big leads giving up sizeable leads to have to narrowly hold on for wins throughout the year. Many people would say that it’s complacency, which if that is the case then look out. A lot of teams when they lose the Super Bowl would have a hangover but not a team that won the previous Super Bowl, still has a ton of confidence in it’s potential and addressed and potentially fixed it’s one main issue (the offensive line). With Patrick Mahomes big contract kicking in soon the Chiefs are going for it this season and don’t be surprised if this Chiefs unit isn’t just the best in the league this year, but it is one of the best offenses of all time.
Prediction (Best Unit in League)
Defensive Synopsis: The Chiefs defense was in the middle of the pack last season in every stat you can think of, including turnovers forced. This is a shocking stat because usually teams that win 14 games have a sizeable difference in turnover differential because when opposing teams are trailing they often have to force the issue which results in turnovers. The Chiefs defense is bringing almost everybody back from last season and what this tells me is Chiefs GM Brett Veach expects this unit to naturally improve from last season. I tend to agree with this logic especially since the Chiefs are athletic on the outside but susceptible to the run. But I think playing with big leads helps this unit be one of the best in football this year and will masks their one weakness. Expect Chris Jones to have a monster season, he has been unblockable in the preseason.
Prediction (Top 10 Unit)
Conclusion: This is probably going to be the best Chiefs team of all time. Last Season the Chiefs were destroying teams but in the second half would struggle to put teams away and eventually hold on late. I do not see that issue this season. This team is built to win now and win big now. The Playoffs should be interesting as the Bills and Ravens are both itching to knock the Chiefs off the top perch in the AFC and will be worthy challengers. I think the Chiefs will have a challenging run in the playoffs, but as for the Regular Season I do not think the Chiefs will go 17-0. But I think they will have a point diffential of around plus 250, a turnover differential of at least better than the plus 6 they had last season, and Patrick Mahomes will rival his 2018 Season for his best season of his career thus far. Real season starts for the Chiefs in Week 20
Projected Record: 15-2 1st seed in AFC