4th place- Bengals (2020 Record 4-11-1)
Key Additions: WR Ja’Marr Chase (drafted), DE Trey Hendrickson, CB Chidobe Awuzie
Key Departures: DE Carl Lawson, WR A.J Green, DT Geno Atkins
2020 Offensive Stats: (311 Points 29th in NFL, 319.8 yards per game, 29th in NFL)
2020 Defensive Stats: (424 points allowed, 22nd in NFL, 389.2 yards allowed per game, 26th in NFL)
Drew Rating: -14.39 (Projected Record 4-12)
Offensive Synopsis: The Bengals were more of a middle of the pack offensive team before Joe Burrow tore his ACL and MCL during a Week 11 loss at Washington. Burrow is back this season and even though there is word that Burrow has a little hesitation towards trusting his knee. Burrow will be a huge upgrade over the Ryan Finley/Brandon Allen tandem that was behind center in the second half of last season. Even with Bengal great A.J Green out of town the Bengals young wide receiver trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins provides great talent at the pass catching positions. The Question will be can a mediocre Bengals offensive line keep Burrow upright. I will say led by left Tackle Jonah Williams the Bengals are competent upfront and the Bengals offense is a very watchable unit in 2021.
Prediction (Around League Average)
Defensive Synopsis: The Bengals let some long time veterans in Carl Lawson and Geno Atkins walk in the offseason (Atkins was cut). D.J Reader is a solid nose tackle and there is talent in the secondary led by free agent pickup cornerback Chidobe Awuzie and safety Jessie Bates III. The linebackers are unproven and we still aren’t sure about the Bengals being able to form a consistent pass rush. I think the Bengals will not be among the worst in football but until I see a little more consistency at stopping opposing teams air attacks I cannot put Cincy’s defensive unit above the bottom ten in football.
Prediction (Bottom 10 Unit)
Conclusion: The Bengals are an up and coming team. Most of their talent sits on the offensive side of the football. Expect the next Bengals draft to address their defensive issues that will continue to be exposed this season. The biggest Questions heading into 2021 is Joe Burrow’s health and confidence and if Zac Taylor is the right coach of this football team. I think the Bengals will improve from 2020 and be a thorn on some good teams sides this year. My bold predictions is they beat the Steelers and Browns once a piece this year to prove they aren’t the laughing stock of this division anymore.
Record Prediction: 6-11
3rd place- Steelers (2020 Record 12-4)
Key Additions: RB Najee Harris (drafted), G Trai Turner, DE Melvin Ingram III
Key Departures: T Alejandro Villanueva, LB Bud Dupree, C Maurkice Pouncey
2020 Offense: (416 points 12th in NFL, 334.6 yards per game 25th in NFL)
2020 Defense: (312 points allowed 3rd in NFL, 305.8 yards per game 3rd in NFL)
Drew Rating: 8.80 (Projected Record 11-5)
Offensive Synopsis: The 2020 Steelers were a pass heavy team. Ben Roethlisberger in their playoff game alone threw 68 times (he also threw 46 times in a 36-7 Week 10 win which shows the serious unbalance of the 2020 Steelers offense. The Steelers for the most part in 2020 just disregarded the running game. In 2021 the Steelers are discussing going back to running the ball led by first round pick Najee Harris. Harris is more an old school style back, a physical back that is a beast between the tackles. My concern with this is the Steelers offensive line, a unit that has been one of the best in the league in recent years has completely been retooled in the offseason. Their two best lineman in Alejandro Villanueva and Maurkice Pouncey of past several seasons are gone. In their place is Chukuwama Okorafor and J.C Hassenauer. Both are very unproven players and both may work out but at this time is a big question mark. The receivers are still great with Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson and Juju Smith-Schuster. But with a shaky offensive line, unproven running game and an aging (yet underrated at this point) Ben Roethlisberger. We have to put the Steelers in the bottom 10 of the league, too many explosive offenses in football today.
Prediction (Bottom 10 Unit)
Defensive Synopsis: The Steelers defense was elite as it’s been for most seasons in the last five decades in 2020. The Steelers led the league is sacks (56), was tied for the league lead in interceptions with 18, and was third in the league in points and yards allowed. But the Steelers lost a lot of their talent and depth. Losing pass rusher Bud Dupree (still recovering for a torn ACL), as well as corners Mike Hilton and Steven Nelson. Led by sack Machine T.J Watt and ball hawking safety Minkah Fitzpatrick the Steelers will still be one of the top units in football. But it’s hard for me to envision the Steelers being a three defense. With the losses in depth and lack of depth on the back end I will lower the Steelers defense in 2020 to good but not great.
Prediction (Top 10 Unit)
Conclusion: I will not be allowed to buy Ketchup or hang out with Steelers fans anytime soon with this prediction but I lay out facts here. There are regression teams every season and the Steelers are the ideal candidate in 2021. They will struggle to run the ball, protect the Quarterback and this will wear on a good defense as the season goes on. The Steelers are one of the best brands in the NFL but they are going to be one of the most boring teams to watch this season. Mike Tomlin’s most impressive feat has been never finishing with a losing season, but as the wise man once said all great things in life eventually come to an end. I predict the Steelers will have their darkest season in a very long time which will create a lot of Questions about Ben Roethlisberger’s future. If I’m wrong and the Steelers are Super Bowl champs I’m sure I will be the reason why. But I think I’m good at this and sadly Steelers Nation you can hate me for being right.
Record Prediction: 6-11
2nd place- Browns (2020 Record 11-5)
2020 Offense: (408 points 14th in NFL, 369.6 yards per game 16th in NFL)
2020 Defense: (419 points allowed 21st in NFL, 358.4 yards allowed per game 17th in NFL)
Drew Rating: 1.59 (Projected Record 9-7)
Key Additions: CB Troy Hill, DE Jadevon Clowney, FS John Johnson
Key Departures: DE Olivier Vernon, SS Andrew Sendejo, FS Karl Joseph
Offensive Synopsis: The Browns have more hype then maybe any team in the entire league going into the 2021 Season. The Browns strength is in the middle led by Guards Joel Bitonio, Wyatt Teller and center JC Tretter. Plus the dynamic running back duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Even with all this talent in the middle and a decent receiving core the Browns were in the middle of the pack in almost every offensive stat last season (yards, yards per play, 3rd down conversion %, and points scored). I was tempted to put a group that is bringing almost their entire unit back from last season in the top 10 in the league but I cannot in my right mind do so. There is just far too many good offenses in the league. Let’s say the 2021 Browns are 11th or 12th in the offensive hierarchy in football, they are a good but not great unit.
Prediction (League Average or slightly above League average)
Defensive Synopsis: The Browns on offense brings almost all of their significant parts of last season back. The defense also right around league average last season is completely retooled. They still have elite talents in Denzel Ward and Myles Garrett and brought in former Rams stalwarts John Johnson and Troy Hill to bolster up the secondary. My concern with the Browns defense is an unproven and linebacker core that the Browns will be depending on in run stopping and pass coverage playing a 4-3 defense. The Browns defense is star driven enough that Myles Garrett alone is going to be a game changer on certain Sunday’s (as long as he’s not getting into fist fights with the Paul Brothers!). But overall the Browns are about where they were last year and should be a decent but not elite unit.
Prediction (Around League Average)
Conclusion: The Browns are a team with a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. But if we go by last season’s results (vastly outperformed their metrics) and what has transpired in the offseason I think the Browns come back down a bit in 2021. Many Browns fans like Steelers fans are going to ban me from their twitter account and it’s okay because I speak the truth and display the facts. The Browns will be slightly improved from their 2020 team in terms of the eye test but will fall back a bit in the win column. We will cite this to not getting the pleasure of playing the AFC South and NFC East like 2020, with 8 games this season being against the much more challenging AFC East and somewhat more challenging NFC North. This is one of the more difficult calls and I was leaning towards putting the Browns in the postseason but will put them as the first team out in the AFC at seasons end.
Record Prediction: 9-8
1st Place- Ravens (2020 Record 11-5)
Key Additions: WR Rashod Bateman (drafted), WR Sammy Watkins, T Alejandro Villanueva
Key Departures: G D.J Fluker, LB Matt Judon, DE Yannick Ngakoue
2020 Offense: (468 points 7th in NFL, 363.1 yards per game 19th in NFL)
2020 Defense: (303 points allowed 2nd in NFL, 329.8 points allowed 7th in NFL)
Drew Rating: 16.83 (Projected Record 13-3)
Offensive Synopsis: The Ravens were not quite the historic juggernaut running the football in 2020 as they were in 2019 but they still were one of the best rushing teams in NFL history running for 191.3 yards per game. The Ravens well say are about as good as last year up front, acquiring Alejandro Villanueva after trading right tackle Orlando Brown to the Chiefs. What has me putting the Ravens offense above the Browns to enter into the top ten in the league is three things. 1. The Ravens are elite at running the football. They beat the hell out of their opponents on the ground and even though teams know it’s coming no one has been able to consistently stop them. 2. The Ravens will be better at wide receiver. No offense to Dez Bryant and Willie Snead but they aren’t the players they were a few years ago. With the drafting of Rashod Bateman and addition of an injury plagued (but still productive) Sammy Watkins the Ravens will be improved at pass catching. 3. The biggest reason is Lamar Jackson is just better than Baker Mayfield and it’s not even close. What I’ve always loved about Lamar Jackson is that he is the most competitive guy on the field every Sunday. He cares so much and he works harder to be great than just about anyone in the game. I expect Lamar Jackson to be great and for the Ravens offense to be excellent as well in 2021.
Prediction (Top 10 Unit)
Defensive Synopsis: If you thought the Ravens offense was good now we get to talk about the unit that was among the best in football in 2020 and is bringing most of their unit back in 2021. The Ravens did lose Matt Judon but Patrick Queen was on one of the best young linebackers in football last season and there is no reason to believe that he won’t become a borderline All Pro in 2021. Also with Marcus Peters, Marlon Humphrey, and Jimmy Smith you have the best trio of corners in the game. You also sprinkle in a still great Calais Campell, Brandon Williams and Derek Wolfe and you also have one of the best defensive fronts in all of football. In other words the Ravens defense is going to be awesome in 2021. Especially with a ball control offense that will keep them on the sideline much of games.
Predictions (Top 3 Unit)
Conclusion: The Ravens did not do too much to overhaul their roster last season with not having a ton of cap space to make a ton of offseason moves. To be quite frank they didn’t have to. Many of you are wondering what Drew Rating is I’ll tell you right now. It’s a formula that I created that puts in all important critical metrics of a football team (point differential, yards per play/yards per play allowed, third down conversion percent, and third down conversion allowed, turnover differential, and net punt/kickoff yards, with a small field goal accuracy sprinkled in). The story behind this metric is what the amount of points you score/allow (the whole pythagorean theorem in a nut shell), are you explosive and do you prevent explosive plays (yards per play) do you stay on the field and get off the field on critical plays (3rd down conversion percent), do you protect the ball and take away the ball (turnover differential), and special teams metric nonsense (which matters a little bit but not a significant amount, but having Justin Tucker doesn’t hurt). The Ravens at 16.83 were the best in football, yet the fifth seed in the AFC Last Season. We can talk about the why’s but in a short 16 game season sometimes random things can happen which is why I love team metrics to tell a different side to the story that isn’t always indicated in the final score (look up the stat sheet of the Dolphins 28-17 win over the Rams in Week 8 of last season as your prime example numero uno). The Ravens were awesome last year and lost a bunch of close games and won a bunch of blowouts and had bad luck missing their Quarterback due to health circumstances in their biggest game of the regular season. The Ravens are a team that struggles from behind but absolutely crushes souls when they have the lead in the second half. With a great defense and a great running game the Ravens will not be behind too often in 2021 and should win their division rather easily. The true season for the 2021 Ravens begins in January.
Record Prediction: 13-4 2nd Seed in AFC