4th place- Jets (2020 Record 2-14)
Key Additions- QB Zach Wilson (drafted), WR Corey Davis, TE Tyler Kroft
Key losses- QB Sam Darnold, RB Frank Gore, SS Bradley McDougald
2020 Offense (Points 243 32nd in NFL, 279.9 yards per game 32nd in NFL)
2020 Defense (Points Allowed 457 25th in NFL, 387.6 yards allowed per game, 24th in NFL)
Drew Rating: -18.52 (Expected Record 2-14)
Offensive Synopsis: The Jets were an abomination starting the 2020 Season at 0-13 before pulling off huge late season upsets of playoff bound teams in the Rams and Browns. Out is Sam Darnold and Adam Gase and in is Zach Wilson and Robert Saleh. The Jets offense under Adam Gase were abominable last year putting up by far the worst offense in football in every imaginable metric you can look at. The Jets have improved their skill position talent immensely in bringing in Running back Tevin Coleman, Wide Receiver Corey Davis and Tight End Tyler Kroft. The offensive line also got a boost with the first round drafting Alijah Vera-Tucker and a second season of last years first round pick, tackle Mekhi Becton. With these additions the Jets offense will not be the worst in football. But they still will be a bottom 10 unit in 2021 with the main Question being the continued progress of Zach Wilson
Prediction (Bottom 10 Unit)
Defensive Synopsis: The defense did show strides especially down the stretch led by Super defensive lineman Quinnen Williams. With Quinnen Williams and newly acquired Sheldon Rankins the Jets defensive front will have of the best defensive fronts in football. The secondary is still very suspect however with the top two corners being young late round picks in Bless Austin and Bryce Hall. It would behoove Saleh to have creative sub packages on third and long to help a young unproven secondary otherwise the Jets may get carved up in the passing game throughout the season. With linebacker C.J Mosley finally back and healthy, the Jets will be stout in the front seven and like the offense, the defense will be slightly improved over their 2020 Rankings
Prediction (Around League Average)
Conclusion: The Jets are still a team in a rebuild but with a new coach and new philosophy with an improved roster the Jets will not be the laughing stock of football in 2020. The Rest of the division is too good for the Jets to be anywhere near a playoff contender. But the Jets in 2021 will take a small step in the right direction.
Record Prediction: 5-12
3rd Place- Dolphins (2020 Record 10-6)
Key Additions- WR Jaylen Waddle, WR Will Fuller, FS Jason McCourty
Key Losses- QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, LB Kyle Van Noy, DT Davon Godchaux
2020 Offense (404 points 15th in NFL, 339 yards per game, 22nd in NFL)
2020 Defense (338 points allowed 6th in NFL, 367.9 yards allowed per game, 20th in NFL)
Drew Rating: 4.31 (Expected Record 9-7)
Offensive Synopsis: The 2020 Dolphins were about a league average offensive football team. They were in the middle of the pack in about every offensive metric you could look at. The Dolphins made the change at Quarterback (even after two straight wins) to Tua Tagovailoa after the Week 7 bye and Tua was mostly underwhelming but the Dolphins were still in the playoff hunt until the end of the Season. To diffuse a Quarterback controversy the Dolphins let incumbent starter Ryan Fitzpatrick walk in the offseason and have given the key of the car to Tua. The Dolphins drafted more speed on the outside acquiring free agent receiver Will Fuller and Drafting sixth overall pick (and former college passing target of Tua’s) Jaylen Waddle. With this new added speed and the growth of the offensive line led by 2nd year left tackle Austin Jackson. You would think that the Dolphins offense would improve. But with Fuller’s durability issues, lack of running back depth behind starter Myles Gaskin, and the uncertainty of Tua I’m going to project the Dolphins offense being about a league average unit in 2021.
Prediction (Around League Average)
Defensive Synopsis: The Dolphins were 20th in yards per game allowed in 2020 but 6th in points allowed. Why such the great points prevention but not yards prevention? Turnovers I tell you. The Dolphins forced a league best 29 turnovers in 2020 led by 1st team all pro cornerback Xavien Howard and his 10 interceptions and 20 passes defended (both first in the NFL), to put it lightly the 2020 Dolphins was a ball hawking unit. The Dolphins have one of the best secondary’s in all of football led by Howard, fellow corner Byron Jones and free agent pickup Jason McCourty. The Dolphins should again in 2021 be a team hard to throw on with the Dolphins using their aggressive press coverage to frustrate wide receivers across the league. What concerns me about the Dolphins defense is not having an elite pass rusher or a true leader in the middle (after cutting Linebacker Kyle Van Noy in the offseason). Their best chance of a breakout up front would be defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah who had 9 sacks and three forced fumbles in 2020. However, with a largely unknown unit in the front seven even with the great secondary I am going to say the Dolphins will be maybe a smidge above league average defensively but not enough to put them in the Top 10.
Prediction (Around League Average)
Conclusion: I do not mean to be cynical to Dolphins fans but I could see that last game of the season against the Patriots being a do or die game. It would be tough to pick against Bill Belichick even in a pseudo road playoff game. The Dolphins are too well coached to be a bad football team but there is a saying the team goes as their Quarterback does. I am not 100 percent sold on Tua Tagovailoa leading the Dolphins on a deep playoff run. As such, the Dolphins will be in the mix in 2021 but just like 2020 the Dolphins will fall just short of the postseason.
Record Prediction: 9-8
2nd place- Patriots (2020 Record 9-7)
Key Additions: QB Mac Jones (Drafted), OT Trent Brown, TE Jonnu Smith
Key Losses: CB Jason McCourty, OG Joe Thuney, WR Julian Edelman
2020 Offense: (326 Points 27th in NFL, 327.3 yards per game 27th in NFL)
2020 Defense: (353 points allowed 7th in NFL, 353.8 yards allowed per game 15th in NFL)
Drew Rating: -2.02 (Projected Record 7-9)
Offensive Synopsis: The Pats were a mediocre at best offensive unit in 2020. They could flat out not throw the ball with Cam Newton recovering from offseason shoulder surgery and the lack of targets for Cam the throw the ball to. In comes a slew of targets in tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, plus wide receiver’s Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. The receiving unit is still one of the worst in football but with now two top 15 tight ends and a great offensive line and a solid running back tandem of Damien Harris and the ageless James White. The Pats should revert to competency in 2020 behind a ball control style offense. The Pats with the talent they have on the roster almost have to start Cam Newton from day one in order to contend this season. Even with the recent developments of Cam missing practice this week due to COVID protocols it is hard for me to see rookie Mac Jones winning the job and still think Cam will have to play poorly early in the season to get assigned to the bench.
Prediction (Around league Average)
Defensive Synopsis: The Pats had eight opt outs in 2020 (most of them on defense) and was playing with a stacked deck all year. Even with all of this being said the Pats defense was still a competent unit (especially against the pass) and was great situationally. Being in the Top 10 again in points allowed. So with the returns of former middle of the defense stalwarts Dont’a Hightower and Kyle Van Noy and with the addition of Davon Godchaux up front the Pats with an already outstanding secondary led by Stephon Gilmore and Devin McCourty will remain a top 10 Unit in 2021.
Prediction (Top 10 Unit)
Conclusion: The Pats will look completely different than the 7-9 team we saw in 2020. With the departure of Tom Brady and all of the opt outs the 2020 Pats were doomed from the get go. But in 2021 with a few lucky bounces they could even be a division champion again. I will not go that far but I do have the Patriots returning to the Playoffs as a Wild Card and a team with their ball control offense and stingy defense as a team no one will be looking forward to meeting in January.
Record Prediction: 10-7, 6th Seed in AFC
1st Place- Bills (2020 Record 13-3)
Key Additions: WR Emmanuel Sanders, OG John Feliciano, QB Mitch Trubisky
Key Departures: TE Tyler Kroft, WR John Brown, OG Brian Winters
2020 Offense: (501 points 2nd in NFL, 396.4 yards per game, 2nd in NFL)
2020 Defense: (375 points allowed 16th in NFL, 352.5 yards allowed per game, 14th in NFL)
Drew Rating: 13.79 (Projected Record 12-4)
Offensive Synopsis: The 2020 Bills set all sorts of Team Records (namely most points and tied for most wins in team history). Josh Allen took off into a new stratosphere and was compensated as such (getting the largest signing bonus in league history). Josh Allen and the Bills offense will still be a top unit in 2020 with the addition of receiver Emmanuel Sanders and the return of Running back Zack Moss. The one area that the Bills would like to improve on in 2021 is their running game. In their two losses to the Chiefs last season it was the Chiefs running game and not their passing game that wore down the Bills (who in many games did not even try to run the football, look at the tape in the Bills signature Week 9 win over the Seahawks). Look for the Bills to try to implement more of a balanced offense in 2021 to keep their offense on the field more and the defense on the field less.
Prediction (Top 5 Unit)
Defensive Synopsis: The Bills were around league average across the board last season. With a top two offense in the league it was not necessary for the Bills to have a suffocating defense. The Bills still does have one of the best secondary’s in all of football led by super corner Tre’Davious White and the dynamic safety duo of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. But the Bills will need more out of a pass rush that disappeared far too often. The Bills were right in the middle of the pack at 16th in the league in 38 Sacks yet playing often with big leads. The Bills did not address the pass rush situation much in the offseason. So the Bills will mostly lean on scheme and coverage from their excellent secondary to get pressure on opposing Quarterbacks in 2021. I’ll say the Bills defense will again be right around league average in total defense.
Prediction (Around League Average)
Conclusion: The Bills in 2020 was the Best team in the AFC down the stretch (strong stance from me since the Chiefs did beat three 10 plus win teams on the road during the last six weeks of the regular season). 2021 is supposed to be the year the Bills go all the way in many minds (plus come on Drew you just wrote over the summer a story on the history of the Buffalo Bills). I will lose some popularity from Bills fans and may not be welcome to Bills Mafia tailgating parties, but I also keep it real and honest when I’m making my projections and am not about fluff. Josh Allen is still going to be great (but not as great as last season). The Bills will again score a lot of points and be one of the most well coached and exciting teams to watch in all of football. But the lack of addressing the issues in the front seven and the massive improvement of the rest of the division has me having the Bills scale back a skootch from their 2020 Win total. A first place schedule and let’s say a 4-2 divisional record (compared to the 6-0 last year) takes the Bills out of the running for the AFC top seed. However, the Bills will repeat as division champs, but will have to like last season start the playoffs on Wild Card Weekend, but this time with a packed loud and raucous New Era Field. Let’s just prep for the Wildcard Weekend Sunday night game between the Pats and Bills right now, that will be fun!
Record Prediction: 11-6, 3rd Seed in AFC