Hi everyone, we had ourselves a fantastic Week 10. One of the main reasons why we love the NFL is the utmost unpredictability of the league. This was on complete display again in Week 10. Let’s delve into the Rankings and see where we have everyone in our rankings. Remember this one thing, when you think you know something you realize that you know nothing!
32. Lions 0-8-1 (Drew Rating: -18.99 Projected Record 1-8) LW: 32
I was tempted to put Macho Man Danny Campbell’s band of cardiac cats out of the cellar but the fact of the matter is they still haven’t won a game. But the Lions play their butts off and that was in full display on Sunday afternoon on a wet rainy day in Pittsburgh. Jared Goff was absolutely brutal again on Sunday and I think he will have the Browns and Bears game to try to get their first W. If the Cats sit at 0-10-1 after turkey day David Blough is likely to get a look over the final six games of the regular season. Goff is now 0-15-1 in non McVay coached starts. Hard to say a QB who made a Super Bowl is a bust but oi vey.
31. Texans 1-8 (Drew Rating: -21.20 Projected Record 1-8) LW: 31
The Texans were on their bye week and two things great happened during the week for team Texas. They did not lose, and the players got to spend quality time with their families. The big question for the Texans will be for the rest of the year is do they want to tank for the number one overall pick when there isn’t a sure fire QB prospect worth taking number 1. The Texans are so devoid of top level talent at this point that they almost certainly will not be winning too many more games no matter what the front office does at this point. The under for 4 wins looks pretty safe to me.
30. Jets 2-7 (Drew Rating: -23.94 Projected Record 0-9) LW: 28
With a YPP disparity of more than a full yard and the turnover differential being a ghastly minus 15 I think we are all wondering how the J E T S Jets Jets Jets have even won two games this season. The defense has been historically bad over the past four weeks giving up 45 plus in three of them (and 31 in the other game which is still really bad point prevention). The league usually favors the defense more as we get deeper into the fall but not in Jets land. In more crap news the White Lotus turned into the Orange Pumpkin as Mike White threw four picks without a touchdown before getting benched for the former Ravens and Jets (yup he was there last year if you forgot) Joe Flacco came in for garbage time awesomeness. Zach Wilson the job is still yours rook.
29. Jaguars 2-7 (Drew Rating: -18.16 Projected Record 1-8) LW: 29
Unlike these other teams on this list the Jags with the young talent they have (particularly on defense) is worth watching down the stretch. In Indy last Sunday, even with Jonathan Taylor looking to unleash an historically awesome game on the ground and a blocked punt early in the game the Jags were able to claw (cat jokes) back into the game to give themselves a chance late. In their last gasp effort to steal one Trevor Lawrence would get stripped sacked in a 23-17 defeat. The offensive line is the biggest area of improvement in the offseason but the arrow is pointing up for the first time in a while in Duvall County.
28. WFT 3-6 (Drew Rating: -14.85 Projected Record 2-7) LW: 27
People are going to give me a hard time for dropping a team that just beat Tom Brady by 10 points but I was that impressed with Miami this week and over the past month and a half and Washington’s body of work does not trump any other team above them. The biggest indictment to Washington is they are giving up more than 55 percent on third down which means they do not get off the field on defense. These rankings have always been what have you done and not what you are expected to do. Washington so far this season has looked brutally awful for eight weeks and had a potentially season changing win over the potentially overrated Bucs (outside of this past Sunday not a great body of work). If the football’s want to do the unthinkable and make two straight playoff appearances after starting 2-6 they will have to win a pivotal game against Ron Rivera’s old QB Cam Newton and the Panthers on Sunday.
27. Bears 3-6 (Drew Rating: -14.75 Projected Record 2-7) LW: 26
Justin Fields and company has gained some confidence coming out of their bye week. The Bears are somehow not out of the NFC Playoff picture as well but the postseason is a long shot to be kind for the furry beast from the midwest. The Bears schedule the rest of the way features an angry Ravens team followed by the the Cardinals, Packers and Vikings to follow after the play the Lions in what may be the lowest rated Thanksgiving game ever. The Bears fans have to understand that this year is all about Justin Fields development and that they are not going to repeat their playoff appearance from last year. Matt Nagy is likely to get the axe at season’s end, just the nature of the beast.
26. Dolphins 3-7 (Drew Rating: -12.98 Projected Record 3-7) LW: 30
That was the most impressive defensive performance I have seen all season (and the Packers just shut out Russell Wilson and forced Russ into arguably his worst performance in his entire career). The Dolphins kept bringing zero blitz on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens could never adjust. The Phins defense tackled as well as I’ve seen any team tackle this season and it looked like they were playing with 14 guys on d all night. Tua Tagovailoa came in relief for Jacoby Brissett after Brissett had a minor knee injury in the third Quarter of what was an ugly 6-3 game. Brian Flores Quarterback usage has been curious over the past couple of seasons but what is not curious is his ability to coach up a defense, that was impressive.
25. Giants 3-6 (Drew Rating: -2.56 Projected Record 4-5) LW: 24
The Giants come off their bye week with a brutally tough test heading to Tampa to play a Bucs team that has lost two in a row and will be almost a month at this game’s kickoff since Tom Brady and company’s last win. The Giants do have an outside chance at the last playoff spot in the NFC if they can go 5-2 or 6-1 over their last seven games but let’s ask ourselves a question. Does anyone really see Daniel Jones, Joe Judge and this gang going 5-2 or 6-1 over the last seven games? Not likely but as the Swamie once said that’s why they play the games.
24. Seahawks 3-6 (Drew Rating: 1.12 Projected Record 5-4) LW: 21
That was brutal. The Hawks played the Packers tough through three Quarters but a red zone interception by Russell Wilson (which is the early season award for worst interception thrown) killed the little momentum the Hawks had in what at the time was an unwatchable 3-0 football game. Watching the game and how it went and turned out you would have thought it was Geno Smith Vs Jordan Love but nope it was what we perceived as two of the five best QB’s in the game trading incompletions with rookie like interceptions before A.J Dillon bulldozed over the Hawks defense down the stretch to help the Pack pull away for a 17-0 win. The Hawks season is now on life support and the remedy to try to save it is an angry Arizona Cardinals team which will likely have Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins back, good luck Seattle.
23. Falcons 4-5 (Drew Rating: -15.10 Projected Record 2-7) LW: 20
The Falcons were the most unlucky team last season by the Drew Rating metric (a 7-9 team masked in a 4-12 body). This season the dirty birds are one of the more lucky teams as Younghoe Koo has had three walk off field goals to win hard fought road games over the Giants, Dolphins and Saints. They could not keep up the walk off away win train as the Cowboys embarrassed the Falcons to the tune of a 43-3 butt whipping that seemed even worse that what even the final score indicated. Next up is the Pats coming to Atlanta in what will be an emotional game on Thursday night (if anyone remembers Super Bowl 51 you catch my drift).
22. 49ers 4-5 (Drew Rating: -0.31 Projected Record 4-5) LW: 25
Monday night’s demolition of what was an equally hungry Rams team showed why the 49ers have been overvalued some by Vegas all season thus far. The defensive line is nasty led by Nick Bosa. The offensive line is competent enough to control a game and Jimmy Garoppolo is a good enough game manager that he can win games when he is healthy and has good protection in the pocket. The two players that will make teams cringe having to play the Niners if they can make it to the postseason is George Kittle (just a beast in run blocking and in the open field) and star wide out Deebo Samuel. Deebo Samuel might be the most underrated receiver in all of football. He is an absolute demon after the catch (maybe the best YAC receiver in all of football not named Tyreek Hill and that could even be argued) and is becoming a polished route runner. That game sealing 41 yard TD on Monday night was an exhibit on how to run an in route against a zone defense. The 49ers are not dead quite yet.
21. Vikings 4-5 (Drew Rating: 3.98 Projected Record 5-4) LW: 22
The Vikings are an enigma and deserve to be higher on this list based on ability but I cannot get over two games that keep them down here. The lost to Cooper Rush on a stand alone game after Rush had looked like a practice squad Quarterback at best in most of his career preseason action. Then they should have lost to the Lions after holding a 16-6 lead with 3 minutes to play. The Vikes had maybe their most impressive performance of the year to date in a 27-20 win in a pseudo home game against the Chargers on Sunday. The Vikings don’t have one of the biggest fan bases in football but travel as well as anyone because would you want to be in Minneapolis in November/December if you could escape for a weekend? Yeah I thought so.
20. Eagles 4-6 (Drew Rating: 4.20 Projected Record 5-5) LW: 23
I keep saying it every week the Eagles are way better than I expected. They also have a head to head win over the Panthers which will do them well in the world of tie breakers. In their final seven games they have a head to head matchup with the Saints and four combined games against the Giants and Washington which gives the Birds a legit shot at getting one of the final two playoff spots in the NFC (especially if they also beat the Saints). Jalen Hurts is limited and anyone not named Darius Slay just begs QB’s to pick on them but they have a good front on both sides of the ball and can run the snot of the football. This is not a team I would want to face in the postseason if they were able to sneak in.
19. Steelers 5-3-1 (Drew Rating: -4.61 Projected Record 4-5) LW: 17
I know the three losses the Steelers have is fewer than or equal to the next 13 teams I will have above them on this list but have you seen this team play football? They just got lucky to go undefeated (should have probably lost both games to be honest with you and any Steelers fan would agree with this statement) against the sad sack Bears and winless Lions, in back to back home games mind you. I am not the first or last person to say this can we please not see Mason Rudolph play football anymore, there has to be someone out there who can beat him out one of these years for the backup QB job in Pittsburgh. That game on Sunday made my head hurt.
18. Broncos 5-5 (Drew Rating: -2.56 Projected Record 5-5) LW: 14
Sorry J Bone I’m still putting the Broncos ahead of your Steelers. That Cowboys win will give the Donkeys some equity for at least one more week. What is not going to give the Burros equity is Teddy Bridgewater’s lack of trying to make a play on Darius Slay’s scoop and score in what was a 20-13 game at the end of the third Quarter of an eventual 30-13 loss to the Eagles. I always say in life to my team at my day job to use situational awareness. If the game is 20-3 Eagles let him go Teddy don’t risk getting hurt ala Baker Mayfield. However, In a 20-13 game in which a tackle or even slowing Slay down would keep your team in a game while your teams is in the heart of division and playoff race for the first time in five years and would fire up your team and the home fans because the FREAKING QUARTERBACK MADE A GAME SAVING TACKLE you try to make a play there because Football is a team game (you make business decisions in other sports but not football)! That play is probably the turning point in what appeared to be a promising season in the Mile High City.
17. Panthers 5-5 (Drew Rating: -1.05 Projected Record 5-5) LW: 17
He’s back!!!!!!!!!!! He’s back!!!!!!! He’s back!!!!!!!!!!!!! Football is an emotional sport more than any other sport. Football teams can be carried by emotion more than any other team in any other sport (example Tim Tebow won seven games in a row in 2011, not a joke look it up!!). Cam Newton’s two yard touchdown run early in a surprising 34-10 blowout of the Cards on Sunday was one of those moments in which the emotion that a single player can bring to a team could rally an entire team for a game, possibly even several games. Cam Newton was on the Panthers roster less than two years ago. Many of these players (D.J Moore and Christian McCaffrey to name a couple) were Cam Newton’s teammates not long ago. They loved playing with Cam and would sacrifice their body and livelihood for Cam. Cam Newton in a Panthers uniform again just fits and it makes the rest of this season down in Charlotte infinity times more interesting than it was last Wednesday.
16. Browns 5-5 (Drew Rating: -0.81 Projected Record 5-5) LW: 10
What was that Cleveland? The Browns had a fantastic first drive capped off by a Baker Mayfield to Austin Hooper touchdown then proceeded to get run off the field in a 45-7 thumping at the hand of the New England Patriots on Sunday. Baker Mayfield suffered a knee contusion in the third Quarter as he now has more knicks and bruises than a beat up pick up truck. There is just far too much talent on this roster to be a .500 team. However, thankfully for the Brownies nobody is running away with this division as their goals for this season can still be achieved. For Baker Mayfield these last seven games will likely decide if he is the future Quarterback of this team after the 2022 season (maybe even 2021 if he collapses down the stretch).
15. Chargers 5-4 (Drew Rating: -.11 Projected Record 4-5) LW: 15
Justin Herbert has regressed some over these past four games as the Chargers have come back down to the pack in a crowded AFC West. There is no need to panic as recent slumps by Patrick Mahomes and even the great Tom Brady proves that it is quite hard to play Quarterback in the NFL. Great work by NBC as the Steelers Chargers Week 11 Sunday night game is going to be one of the more entertaining and pivotal games of the week. Too bad Justin Herbert will be having to use yet again a silent count on third and longs at a home game (poor guy, should just call him the trucker since he’s always on the road).
14. Raiders 5-4 (Drew Rating: 1.43 Projected Record 5-4) LW: 11
That game hurt didn’t it Vegas? The Chiefs who have looked like the 2014 so so Alex Smith version of the Chiefs all year came into your building and thrashed you to prove to the World on a national stage that the AFC West for sure (and maybe the AFC in general still goes through K.C). The Raiders have had a couple of weeks now to digest all of the off field drama as they have a pivotal game on Sunday against the Bengals in which the loser feels like they are on the verge of having a late season fade into the abyss. Just remember Desean Jackson that the end zone is that way!
13. Bengals 5-4 (Drew Rating: 3.71 Projected Record 5-4) LW: 13
The Bengals come off their bye week well rested and prepping for a monster game in Vegas against the Raiders on Sunday. Thanks to some surprising help from the Dolphins the Bengals have a chance to keep themselves right in the thick of the AFC North and Wildcard race with a win over the Vaders. I keep saying to myself that this team feels like a year away but if they can win over a team that is in a deeper tailspin than they are I could be proven very very wrong.
12. Saints 5-4 (Drew Rating: 5.68 Projected Record 5-4) LW: 12
The Saints are such an inconsistent football team that they almost feel like a lock to end the season with a 9-8 record. If the Saints finish 9-8 there is a legitimate chance they will make the postseason and everyone will have a chance to wager against Trevor Siemian or Taysom Hill in the first round of the playoffs. Not much has changed here. Their offensive/defensive line combos may be the best in the game. If you protect your QB you can throw on them. While the Saints can block they have no over the top ability which means they have to grind out drives to score. I will delve deeper into the worst call of the season when I get to the Titans higher in these rankings but man the refs have it out for Sean Peyton and crew don’t they (I’m kidding of course, or am I?).
11. Colts 5-5 (Drew Rating: 6.38 Projected Record 6-4) LW: 18
The Colts are getting one of the biggest jumps in the Rankings because we cannot deny that the Colts are a good football team or at least a decent one. They have two of the dumbest losses of the season (see Ravens and 2nd Titans game) and all five of their wins were games they controlled. The Colts schedule down the stretch is not as favorable as we were saying before as they have four really tough games left (at Buffalo, Vs Tampa Bay, Vs New England, at Arizona) if they can win 2 of those four games and win their other 3 games (highly likely) the Colts would likely make the playoffs at 10-7. Regardless, the Colts have played their way back into the hunt with their recent 4-1 stretch and is a dangerous team to play right now.
10. Ravens 6-3 (Drew Rating: -1.16 Projected Record 4-5) LW: 7
The Ravens do not look like a good football team do they. They suffered their second beatdown loss of the season in a 22-10 loss to the Dolphins in a game that the Birds were punked at the line of scrimmage all night long. The Ravens with their physical run attack is supposed to be the team doing the punishing not the other way around. Lamar Jackson is in his 4th season and should be used to be being blitzed but on Thursday night but Lamar looked like he had never seen a zero blitz before in his career. Expect opponents to use the same hyper aggressive defensive approach especially in obvious passing situations until Lamar and company can adjust on their end. In good news the defense played better on Thursday but how much of that has to do with playing one of the worst offensive units in the game, we shall find out.
9. Chiefs 6-4 (Drew Rating: 1.73 Projected Record 5-5) LW: 16
They’re bacccckkkkkkkk!! The Chiefs for first time in six weeks looked like the offensive juggernaut we have seen for the previous three seasons in a 41-14 rout of the Raiders on Sunday night in Vegas. Patrick Mahomes became the first Quarterback in NFL History to have multiple 400 yard and 5 touchdown 0 interception games in his career (fascinating that has never happened before playing Quarterback in hard in the NFL). We need to see this more consistently from K.C before we declare them 100 percent back but if they beat the Cowboys on Sunday we will have to say to the rest of the league to look out down the stretch. The Chiefs are the horror movie villain and they aren’t dead yet. Especially in the wide open AFC
8. Rams 7-3 (Drew Rating: 8.13 Projected Record 6-4) LW: 4
After two straight blowout losses the Rams have lost some equity to remain among the league’s elite. An issue over the past two weeks is what was an explosive offense (still averaging 6.4 yards per play) has become stale in the last two weeks. However, the bigger issue is Matthew Stafford making big errors with ball security (which was an issue during his in Detroit as well). The first of two interceptions in Monday’s game and even worse since it was on the opening drive (even without any confusion with new addition Odell Beckham Jr.) was an errant throw unnecessarily thrown into double coverage. The second interception was a bad break as Tyler Higbee (who had a brutal game catching the football) simply dropped a screen pass right into the hands of Jimmie Ward who took it the other way for a back breaking pick six. Also, what in the hell was that fake field goal before the half Sean McVay? What is the upside of faking a 37 yard field goal with 20 seconds left in half. Even smart people make dumb decisions sometimes.
7. Bucs 6-3 (Drew Rating: 14.04 Projected Record 6-3) LW: 2
The Bucs also get a huge drop in the rankings as they have also lost some equity after a second straight dumbfounding loss. The difference between the Bucs and Rams loss is the Bucs did not lose to an (if you believe the narrative) underachieving team who found their groove in a game against a team they have had a lot of recent success against. Tampa lost to a team with a career backup who lost their best defensive player early to a torn ACL in the game. I want to give the 49ers and Football team credit for taking advantage of two early interceptions to take command of the game for good right away. The Bucs recent slump is less concerning than the Rams because they have Tom Brady and are the defending Super Bowl champs. A possible get right game against the Giants on Monday looming, stay tuned.
6. Patriots 6-4 (Drew Rating: 14.64 Projected Record 7-3) LW: 9
They’re bacckkkkkkkkkk, yes everyone the hoodied devil and his band of minions are back to being the Evil Empire again. I hope we all enjoyed the 2020 season because it did not last long for the Pats to return to where they usually stand in the hierarchy of NFL Teams. Mac Jones looks like young Tom Brady (in his size and poise), plays like young Tom Brady (in his ability to navigate and offense and his pin point accuracy). He even sounds like Tom Brady at the podium (he says nothing ever even though he will be talking for 15 minutes, it’s like he’s reading the textbook of how to talk to the media). If you hate the Patriots (which anyone who isn’t a Pats fan almost certainly does) you cannot like the way things are looking up in Beantown right now.
5. Bills 6-3 (Drew Rating: 33.47 Projected Record 9-0) LW: 8
When the Bills beat you, they humiliate you. The point differential, yards per play differential, third down conversion differential, turnover differential is all the best in football. This team is by far the best team in football in the eye test as well, outside of the O line (which still is about league average) they are good to excellent everywhere. This all matters on paper but does not in the standings, where one loss to New England will put them in 2nd place. I was doing research on all of the best teams of the 21st Century and you could argue this Bills team is up there with the 2007 Patriots and 2011 Packers for the best team overall in terms of statistical dominance yet they are 6-3, football is innately weird.
4. Cowboys 7-2 (Drew Rating: 17.70 Projected Record 7-2) LW: 6
Sure you can find other examples but have you ever seen a stark contrast in performance from one week to the next by a team in recent memory. The Cowboys were down 30-0 in the 4th Quarter last week to an average Broncos team and then the following week was up 36-3 at the half against a very mediocre (but not the worst team in football) Falcons team. I think the Cowboys are closer to the version we saw this week but they still are prone to being able to be run on (are allowing over 6 yards a play this year), but that offense is explosive (6.5 yards per play is the best in the game). Jerry Jones finally has for the first time in 25 years a legit reason to be giving all his compadres hand shakes and high fives in the press box for a Super Bowl contender.
3. Titans 8-2 (Drew Rating: 2.99 Projected Record 5-5) LW: 3
There is so much smoke and mirrors with the Titans I can’t see out the window. But they are 8-2 and have wins over the following teams, Seahawks (before we knew they would stink), Colts (twice), Bills, Chiefs, Rams and Saints. Now that victory over the Saints should have an asterisk since the game changing play was a Marcus Williams red zone interception late in the first half in a predictably defensive struggle (6-6 game right before the half) was negated by a Kaden Ellis roughing the passer penalty where Ellis simultaneously shoved Ryan Tannehill in the back after he made the errant throw. I thought football was a contact sport. I try not to complain about officiating but when they decide games it’s hard not to.
2. Cardinals 8-2 (Drew Rating: 17.70 Projected Record 7-3) LW: 1
The Cards get a reprieve for having a bad game. They were the only team in the league to not have a stinker all year and finally they did in a game that got away from the early against the Panthers. The big Question for the Cards is when will their top two players return (Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins). You can survive for a couple of weeks without your superstars but in a loaded NFC it is going to be very difficult to stay near the top of the standings if Murray and Hopkins miss more time. Next up is a game against they hyper desperate Seahawks. If the Cards want to avoid starting a losing streak they likely need their two stars back in action.
1.Packers 8-2 (Drew Rating: 6.10 Projected Record 6-4) LW: 5
There is no other choice for number 1 right now. The Packers do only have a point differential of plus 36 (which is worse than the 5-5 Colts). They are worse on third down than their opponents (about league average on both ends). But the here is where the Packers deserve the top spot. They beat the number 2 Cards head to head with Kyler Murray (and DeAndre Hopkins early in game). Since being embarrassed by the Saints in Week 1 the Packers only loss was by six to the Chiefs in a game that Patrick Mahomes had arguably his worst game of his entire career and Jordan Love started for the Pack. In the past three weeks against Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson the Packers defense has allowed 34 total points. This defense and running game alone is good enough to get the Packers over that NFC Championship hump and back into the Super Bowl for the first time in 11 years. If the playoffs again go through Lambeau Field, it will be hard not to envision Aaron Rodgers and company representing the NFC in the big game in Englewood. Going to be a fun last 8 weeks, can’t wait!!