Hi everyone, what a wonderful week we had last Week as we had an 11-3 record to get to 16 over .500 for the year. This week started off with an L as Lamar Jackson just had a nightmare about a zero blitz coming at him We will get it back though with these picks below, believe in Drew as I believe in you!
MORNING WINDOW
jaguars +10.5 over COLTS
I want to take the Colts here as they are clearly the better football team but there is one problem here, the Colts cannot stop anyone as giving up big leads as been the trend here. The blew a 19 point lead to the Ravens, blew a 14 point lead to the Titans and last week was up 42-10 to Josh Johnson yet almost didn’t cover as they needed a red zone tipped interception to hold on for the 45-30 win and cover. The Jags have been playing well defensively the past few weeks and do I think they could exploit the weakness of the Colts (The secondary) to get a backdoor cover at worst, I do. Take the points, the Jags are playing with confidence right now, wait did I say confidence and Jags in the same sentence??
Colts Win 30-22 (Jags Cover)
PATRIOTS -2 OVER browns
This game is a coin flip stay away but you know my rules with the picks. We do not shy away from any game but I recommend a small coin on the Pats if you do decide to wager here and here’s why. Bill Belichick always makes the opposing offensive coordinator play with his opposite hand. He will stack the box and make Baker Mayfield beat them. Can Baker Mayfield beat the greatest coach of all time? Maybe, without Odell there I actually think Kliff Kingsbury’s old QB is a little dangerous (Baker jokes!!) but I’ll take my chances with Billy boy and his defense. Plus Mac Jones is playing with more confidence by the week, Pats take it!
Patriots Win 23-20
falcons +9.5 over COWBOYS
Maybe my only regret pick of the season thus far was not taking the points in the Falcons Saints game last week. Don’t I know how football works, Matt Ryan is scary as a home favorite but when getting a lot of points on the road you have to go with the former Golden Eagle as he usually will come through for you. The Falcons can sling it, Kyle Pitts is becoming the matchup nightmare we all thought he would be coming out of Gainesville. Plus no Randy Gregory or DeMarcus Lawrence for the Lone Stars, who’s making Matty Football’s uncomfortable in the pocket? I think the Cowboys will win this game, I do not see the Falcons defense slowing down a pissed off Cowboys offense but I love lots of points and this game is giving me lots lots of them.
Cowboys Win 35-30 (Falcons Cover)
JETS +12 OVER bills
Mike White getting 12 at home yes maam. The White Lotus night was cut short on Thursday night after he injured his wrist but he’s back for this matchup against the suddenly morally wounded Bills. One thing is true about the White Lotus you cannot stop the White Lotus you can only hope to contain him!!!!!!! Should the Bills win, yes they should. Will the Bills win, yes they likely will. But can the legendary Mike White scare the crap out of them and make Bills fans ponder selling their super bowl tickets prematurely, yes yes I do think this can and will happen. The Bills are still the best team in the muddled AFC, so as long as they survive the Mike White experience all will be okay.
Bills Win 27-21 (Jets Cover)
saints +3 over TITANS
This is the biggest trap bet everyone and you all know. Everyone I’ve talked to is telling that Tennessee plus three is one of the best bets on the board this week. You know how Drew feels about things that are a sure thing in gambling, run run run so fast the other way that all people see is sneaker prints in the mud (or dirt if your in Nevada or Arizona). You cannot run on the Saints but can throw on them. There is no Derrick Henry so I’m sure the Titans are comfortable throwing the ball. The Titans defensive front has been awesome recently and could pose a problem for Trevor Siemian/Taysom Hill/Bobby Hebert or whoever the Saints have behind center. I think this is an either or game from two teams that have their flaws and are very well coached so give me the points and let’s actually go the distance (Field of Dreams!!) and take the upset.
Saints Win 19-18
bucs -9.5 OVER WFT
Been hard to call blowouts recently as the big favorites are getting killed ATS and even in parlays last few weeks. However, when it’s Tom Brady coming off a bye. When it’s Tom Brady coming off a loss and throwing a pick six to decide it. When it’s Tom Brady coming off a bye week and having his 44 year old body rested (still don’t believe it need to see his birth certificate!!). When it’s Tom Brady going against the worst pass defense in football. When it’s Tom Brady against Taylor Heinicke and Heinicke almost outdueling Brady on the biggest stage in their previous meeting. All of these factors make me look at it this way. Tom Brady and the Bucs are going to kick their tookuses on Sunday. Brady is more competitive than any person who’s ever played organized sports, just trust me it’s Drew’s pick of the week.
Bucs Win 33-17
STEELERS -8.5 OVER lions
Taking the Steelers as a big favorite is a scary proposition. Even their defense has been overrated thus far. They cannot blow any team out and when it looks like that are going to they will all of a sudden start giving up big garbage time plays to give the other team hope (Broncos game) or fumble a punt that the other team takes back for a touchdown (Bears game). This is not a good Steelers team and this either proves that Mike Tomlin is legend (probably true) or football is weird and dumb (probably more true) that the Burgh is likely to be 6-3 after Sunday’s game. But the Lions have been so bad recently. Macho Man Danny Campbell and company have less confidence in Jared Goff then I have that I will not eat that cookie sitting in front of me. Have to go Pittsburgh here, maybe Goff gives the Steelers some points, he’s been prone to do that.
Steelers Win 26-13
LATE WINDOW
panthers +10 over CARDINALS
This is the sandwich game (between two big division tilts) that the banged up Cards will inevitably come out flat in. The Panthers have a very good defense and the Cards who will be either play with a banged up Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins or without them all together. Either way the Cards will struggle to move the ball in this game against an excellent front seven. Sam Darnold is to injured reserve with a shoulder injury and at least for this week it’s former XFL Legend P.J Walkers team. Cam Newton is back after a brief exodus from Carolina so this is P.J Walker’s big chance to try to keep the gig and I think he plays well. I think this is the game that everyone freaks out about (what is wrong with Arizona) but the Cards find a way to win late.
Cardinals Win 21-19 (Panthers Cover)
CHARGERS -3 OVER vikings
I waffled about 84 times on this game and anyone who dares to gamble on this game is a true degenerate. Myself or nobody for that matter can predict what will happen in this game but these are things I would be surprised to not see in this bout in Inglewood. A blocked punt, a missed extra point, an interception that is then fumbled and recovered by the offense, a failed challenge on a play that was so dumb to challenge to begin with, a drunken fan running on the field in a Raiders jersey because it’s L.A why not. I think that about sums it up. I guess I will take the Chargers to cover because Herbert is the better QB, logic right??
Chargers Win 31-27
seahawks +3.5 over PACKERS
This is a straight up logic pick here. Russell Wilson is practicing this week and Aaron Rodgers is not practicing. The Seahawks desperately need to win this game to stay in the hunt as they have the Cards next week and 3-7 would all but doom them. Plus are the Packers really that good? They had that very impressive Thursday night win over the Cards but if that game was played 9 more times how many of those games do you think the Cheesehelmets win? I’ll go with maybe 2 max with how limited they were that night. I expect Rodgers to be a little rusty and the Hawks come out and steal one. Russell Wilson has never had a losing season and I don’t he wants to start that trend now.
Seahawks Win 30-24
BRONCOS -2.5 OVER eagles
I stared at this line for a while and kept saying to myself why is this line so low?? The truth is that the Broncos outside of last week has looked like a mediocre football team for a month and a half. They do not have much dynamic on offense and the defense struggles to stop the run. The Eagles can run the ball and Jalen Hurts can make things happen outside of the pocket so this could be a bad matchup for Denver. But I am going to trust Vic Fangio (gulp stop me someone!!) and his defensive staff to take advantage of the Birds offensive limitations. The concern here is how does a team that hasn’t had any success handle it. It’s a concern but the Broncos are the better team and at home (even though home field doesn’t matter anymore thanks vivid seats and stubhub!).
Broncos Win 24-17
SUNDAY NIGHT IN VEGAS!!!!!
chiefs -2.5 over RAIDERS
Patrick Mahomes wife, mom brother and even his pets are taking advantage of his fame and glory. It’s effecting his play and he can’t get out of his own head blah blah blah. How about this for why Patrick Mahomes is struggling, defensive coordinators and defensive players get paid too to exploit any weakness you have and they eventually will find it and exploit it. So now it’s about Patty Football’s making a counter adjustment and simply just playing smart football again. I think this is the game where the Chiefs get back to the basics and start moving the football again. My concern with the Raiders is all of the off field turmoil. I keep hearing they are professionals and can go out and do their jobs and not worry about the nonsense. The truth is in any company whether it’s a football team, a restaurant or a department store if the culture is toxic the performance is going to be compromised. I still think the Chiefs are winning this division. Just not with 12-14 wins like we thought at the beginning of the season.
Chiefs Win 31-24
rams -4 over 49ERS
This is a bounce back game for someone right? I’ll go with the Rams bouncing back. To give Vegas credit they finally have a fair line for a 49ers game and I don’t feel like I’m getting the extra three points I’ve been getting to wager (mostly successfully mind you) against them all season. For how overrated Kyle Shanahan has been as a coach he has done very very well against Sean McVay (5-3 and 5-1 in all years that the Rams didn’t play in the Super Bowl), these two offensive gurus have been mired as rivals and contemporaries in the industry. So if you think McVay doesn’t take losing to his rival personal you must be mistaken. Plus the Rams are going for it and a team that goes for it have to take care of business in spots like this right??
Rams Win 34-17
This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 11-3
Season: 75-60-2