Hi everyone, I know I have been in a mini slump recently but I’m still at 54 percent and I usually get hot late in the season so believe in me. This week I feel as confident as I did in Week 9 and for whatever reason I do well in odd weeks and so so in the even weeks. But as they say let’s even this out shall we? I wanted to thank everyone for following and reading this blog. I am almost at a full year and I couldn’t be more excited. We have some fun material we will be pulling out for the rest of 2021 and for the playoffs and NFL offseason. Shall we get to the picks? I am excited for this slate!!
BROWNS -11.5 OVER lions
Tim Boyle is likely getting the nod in this game for the Lions. We know O’Doyle rules but does Tim Boyle rule? Who is Tim Boyle? Tim Boyle went to the university of Eastern Kentucky (not confused with Western Kentucky where five minute celebrity Mike White went) but not until he transfer from the University of Connecticut before his senior year since he wasn’t getting enough playing time at UConn. So the Browns off an embarrassing loss is playing against a banged up Jared Goff who is still yet to win without Sean McVay in the NFL or the guy who wasn’t good enough to start at UConn. Yeah I’ll take the Brownies to bounce back in a big way.
Browns Win 30-10
JAGUARS +6.5 OVER 49ers
The Jags the last two weeks upset the Bills and give the Colts a run for their money before eventually losing by six. What we expected to happen in Jacksonville this season is indeed happening and that is progress. The 49ers for the first time all season lived up to their preseason expectations thumping the Rams 31-10 in a game that felt even more dominant than the three touchdown final indicated. The 49ers could run the football and control the game here but they have struggled against the run themselves and a big factor to me was hearing the news this morning that James Robinson is likely a go for this game. I think the Jags with a young defense playing well and Quarterback Trevor Lawrence improving every week can keep this game close and possibly steal it. The biggest factor is the 49ers playing on a short week and traveling cross country for an early window game. Data over years shows that is not a good recipe for success for the team from out west.
Jaguars win 21-20
colts +7 over BILLS
Another game where the touchdown underdog has a legitimate shot of pulling the upset. Vegas has to yank this line to a touchdown because the Bills have been laying teams to waste in the games they have won. But could I see DeForest Buckner and company making Josh Allen uncomfortable and turning him into the wild pony Josh Allen over the dart throwing linebacker leaping demon? Yes I can. The biggest factor hear is Jonathan Taylor has been able to run on any and every defense since Week 4 (has run for over 100 yards in all five wins). Let’s use this fact to wager this game. If Taylor reaches 100 yards Colts win (5-0) and if he doesn’t Colts lose (0-5). I say he does and the Bills fans start to panic a little bit as we will call them officially and underachieving team at this point of the season.
Colts Win 24-20
JETS +3 OVER dolphins
FLACCO BOMBS!!!!! I got a fun story for everyone, take a seat and I’ll take you back to the winter of 2013 (sorry Bronco fans but it’s a fun story). I was a bartender at Uno’s Chicago Grill (a deep dish pizza restaurant but they had more than just pies there, great pizza), I would go to this Mexican Restaurant by work often after my shift for a cold brew before heading home for the evening. The bartender there (his name was Dustin to bring more context) was a huge football fan and we would always shoot the business about the NFL. The evening in discussion came after Broncos just lost a heartbreaker (I was there and it was cold, -3 degrees cold) to the Ravens in a double overtime divisional playoff game. You could argue this was the best Broncos team of this century thus far (I think it was) and that loss was a killer to a team that otherwise likely wins it all that season. How they lost the game was even more criminal. With the clock running and under 40 seconds left at their own 27 down a touchdown, Joe Flacco threw a pseudo hailmary (or a bomb) to wide out Jacoby Jones over Broncos Safety Rahim Moore to force overtime. Dustin and I are cynical and were bartenders. So we decided we had to make up a drink or shot to piss off all of the Broncos fans and honor Mr. Joey Flacco. So we came up with the Flacco Bomb (Equal parts Chambord, Tequila and Red Bull, it’s quite delicious as a matter of fact). To wrap around back to November 2021 can I pick the once Ravens and now Jets legend to get one more W as the autumn leaves turn? Hell why not!!!!!
Jets Win 27-23
wft +3.5 over PANTHERS
Hmmm who would know how to beat Cam Newton in his first game back as a starter? Let’s see, how about his former coach for nine season’s who’s also a great defensive head coach. I would consider a good matchup for the football’s. With Chase Young now out for the season the way teams will beat the Football’s down the stretch is throwing the ball off an overrated or underachieving secondary (call it what you will). The Panthers with a QB we still aren’t sure can sling it more than 15 yards down the field is certainly not going to exploit this weakness. When you have two teams galvanizing their season’s the previous week with huge upset wins as huge underdogs and your getting 3.5 on one side take the points. This will be a low scoring slug fest.
WFT wins 19-17
BEARS +5.5 OVER ravens
You get the theme right? This is an underdog Sunday and we have to keep taking the underdogs as this is another game of there is so much value with the underdog. The counterargument is the Ravens are a good team off a bad loss so you have to take the birds here. My counterargument is here are 7 of their nine games so far (taking away blowout wins from the go for it in own territory Chargers and the QB carousel Broncos). Lost to Raiders in overtime with Derek Carr throwing for 432. Beat the Chiefs thanks to Clyde Edwards-Helaire lack of ball security. Beat the winless Lions on a NFL record 66 yard field goal. Needed Lamar Jackson to put on his cape and get help from blocked and missed field goals to beat the Colts in overtime. Embarrassed by the Bengals by 24. Beat the enigma Vikings in overtime and lost to the 2-7 Dolphins in a game that it looked like Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offensive coaching staff had never seen the blitz before. No data here tells me I can trust the Ravens laying more than a field goal and Justin Fields showing more rapid improvement than any of these young Quarterback tells me to take the Bears here, Drew’s pick of the week book it!!
Bears Win 27-24
saints +2 over EAGLES
As Colin Cowherd would say like it? I love it!!! The Saints have the number one run defense in the NFL. The Eagles are a run first, second and third team. The old cliché would say we are trying to put a square peg into a round hole. Not to add the Saints are the better football team and they are coming off two brutal losses where if they can convert a two point conversion or kick an extra point the game could go differently. Jalen Hurts has to win this game against a good defense and I’m not buying it. I think the Saints not just win but win by double digits, book it.
Saints win 27-16
packers -1.5 over VIKINGS
The injury report makes me a little less bullish on the Packers here than I was earlier in the Week. Here is why I should take Green Bay here. The Packers are a great big game team and the Vikings are not. But Drew it’s the Kirk Cousins window (12 PM MST). He kills it in these windows and he’s having another awesome statistical season. You know who also has had awesome stats in sports history for teams who didn’t win much. Mike Trout, Barry Sanders, Tracy McGrady, Bradley Beal (maybe changes this year??). Know what the difference of those four players I named and Kirk Cousins. They are just a complimentary piece and never had much talent around them. The Vikings have an awesome pass rush, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and for now Dalvin Cook. I love statistics but Kirk Cousins doesn’t win enough and Aaron Rodgers usually finds a way to win games like these. I’ll put a small token on the Pack.
Packers Win 23-20
TITANS +10 OVER texans
I’ve picked the Texans many times because they have been such huge underdogs every week but at some point you have to say to yourself when a team is so bad (ala 2018 Cardinals, Josh Rosen oh boy!!) you have to fade them more often than not. The Texans didn’t cover as a 17 point dog to the Bills, a 10.5 point dog to the Colts, a 20.5 dog to the Cards and a 15.5 dog to the Rams. I think next week in New England would be a good spot to pick the Titans to slip up but they are too well prepared and well coached to even give an inferior division rival like the Texans a shot, Tennessee wins big.
Titans Win 27-10
RAIDERS +1 OVER bengals
All three of the late games are stay away’s but as we always say Drew doesn’t stay away and gives his input on every game so let’s make a case for Vegas here. The Raiders just came off an embarrassing home loss and will be more prepared for this game. Derek Carr has been fantastic this season and was good last week until the game got out of hand and he literally started putting the ball up for grabs. The Bengals defense has shown some leaks (75 points over last two games to Mike White and a banged up Baker Mayfield). Last reason to take Vegas is the Bengals can’t block and the Raiders have a good pass rush. If Joe Burrow gets time to throw though forget that I said any of this, just take Vegas Baby!
Raiders Win 30-27
SEAHAWKS +2.5 OVER cardinals
This is the stay away of all stay aways. The Hawks are desperate and need a win. However, what makes me nervous about fading Az is a team with the exterior speed on offense as the Cards have against a defense that is slow is a huge advantage for Arizona and likely could be the difference in this game. Kyler Murray is likely to play (who knows right??) and is told to be moving around well in practice but well see. Russell Wilson will bounce back and play better but against a team who’s hard to throw on will but will he be great or just better than the worst performance he ever had? So many variables, let’s have fun and say the Cards win but not cover and the Seahawks desperate attempt to save their season falls just short.
Cardinals Win 27-26 (Seahawks cover)
CHIEFS -2.5 OVER cowboys
This is the ultimate let’s just take a seat and enjoy a great football game and not wager on it. The over under is 56.5 and usually I stink at picking these but is there anyone who would dare take the under here? As Jay-Z says at the beginning of “Dirt off Your Shoulder” and Travis Kelce said himself the famous phrase “I got my swagger back.” It wass a great sports talk radio topic throughout this week, are the Chiefs offense back or just a one game blip? Before Week’s 7-9 the Chiefs offense was quite awesome (60 percent third down conversion for first six weeks come on!!), sometimes even the greats have a slump and it appeared Patrick Mahomes and company had a slump before they made some big plays to close out Green Bay and carried that momentum over to last Sunday in Vegas. The Cowboys defense is giving up 6 yards a play so there maybe is a little smoke and mirrors here. Don’t get me wrong Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are going to get theirs as well. This game has shootout written all over it and I’m going to take Andy Reid over Mike McCarthy in a big game spot to be the deciding factor. Chiefs take it on a Harrison Butker walk off.
Chiefs Win 37-34
steelers +6.5 over CHARGERS
This game seems way too easy right? All of the big time sports talking heads loves the Steelers in this spot and usually that is a red flag to go the other way but I cannot take a Chargers team that outside of one Monday night game against the Raiders have looked like a mediocre to bad team all year over a well coached team after an embarrassing performance. Tying the Lions at home in a wet sloppy game (Lions are a dome team I may add) is an embarrassment. Mike Tomlin will be giving his honest stern disappointed dad speeches at practice all week about how the Burgh has embarrassed their families and the whole city of Pittsburgh. Do you want to disappoint Mike Tomlin again? Could this garbage Steelers team really be in first place at weeks end? How is Mike Tomlin not in the running for coach of the year? Can he run for president? Maybe NFL Commissioner? Could he be the king of planet Earth? All hail Mike Tomlin. Just close your eyes and pray if Mason Rudolph starts.
Steelers Win 23-18
BUCS -10.5 OVER giants
I know the Giants have had 15 days to prep for this game and their defense is playing great over the past month (39 points in last three games with good offenses in the Chiefs and Raiders being two of those opponents). But do you see Captain America losing three straight? Do you see Captain America falling into second place and allowing inferior teams in the Panthers and Saints hang around for the division. Do you see the Bucs defense allowing Daniel Jones to light them up? Well Trevor Siemian and Taylor Heinicke just did, shut up evil other Drew!!! Take the Bucs here, as Big Sean once said “last night I took and L but tonight I bounce back”!! I did do my best Usher impersonation on social media yesterday so I’m sticking with the hip hop them today. I’ll say it myself “last week I took an L but this week I bounce back”!!!!!!!!
Bucs Win 31-17
This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 5-9
Season: 80-69-2