Hi everyone, happy Friday to all. What a great Week for me last Week going 11-5 and nailing Jacksonville on Thursday I’m not at 57 percent for the year. My goal is 60 percent (expert handicappers sit at 58) so another good Week and I am there. I feel very strong about many games this Week and have a good feeling we are going to clean up again this week. Are you ready because I sure am? I can’t help having all this joy. The weather is getting so nice in Vegas now #blessed.
I’M HUNGOVER WINDOW
wft -1.5 over FALCONS
Why is Washington favored here? Is this a trick? The Game is at Megatron’s Butthole, not in Southern Maryland, I don’t understand. Just trust Vegas and take the Football’s here. We all in life would succeed better at our job being comfortable more than when uncomfortable. I’ll take the football’s in this spot because I think Taylor Heinicke will be very comfortable dropping back. Meanwhile Saving Matt Ryan will be uncomfortable dropping back. I have also specified how Matty Light is under duress in past weeks. Our nation’s capital’s defense has been getting shredded by the press all Week for how they have underachieved thus far. Expect them to be very motivated this week and it pays off in a road win.
Wft wins 26-17
BEARS -3 OVER lions
Most would say this game is between two teams that are just there to pick up a paycheck and should go home and cry in their lovers arms because of how bad they are at playing football. Many would say when there are two bad teams you should always take the points. Well I scoff at what the many and most would say and I am going to accept the three and take the adult Bears in this one. The Bears at least can rush the passer. Jared Goff under pressure, not so bueno.
BEARS WIN 23-16
JETS +7 OVER titans
The sharps love the Jets, but I am done loving team propellers as they have burned me a couple of times thus far. If you take away the Arkansas Razorbacks (who I’ve been wagering against) and the Jets (when I wager for them) I’m 0-4 in my best bets (11-2 otherwise). But I have to take the points in this game. The Titans do not have A.J Brown this week and Julio Jones may also be out. Which means that the Jets are going to stack the box and do everything they can to stop Derrick Henry. Plus Tennessee’s defense that isn’t great, maybe Zach Wilson (or Owen Wilson or whatever his name is) actually doesn’t look overmatched for a Week. Give me the points, don’t let me down Jets!!
Titans Win 23-20 (Jets Cover)
VIKINGS +2 OVER browns
Um yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes. THIS IS DREW’S LOCK OF THE YEAR!! Sorry to my friend Rob and all of the Browns fans out there. This is the best team the new Browns have ever had but even with that being said why are you favored ON THE ROAD IN THE LAND OF SKOL??? I don’t get it to be honest. The Browns are banged up at receiver and corner. The Vikings have Dalvin Cook coming back. Captain Kirk Cousins has actually be playing some damn good football for a while now. The Vikings have a good enough defensive front to slow down the running game enough to make Baker Mayfield have to beat them. This isn’t even a debate here. I think the Vikings may actually be better or just about as good and THEY ARE GETTING POINTS AT HOME. Dumbest line I’ve seen all year, normally when Vegas Zigs I zag, not here. Give me team Minny Mouse at home.
Vikings win 31-24
DOLPHINS -2 OVER colts
Sometimes in life you have to throw your arms up and be life I don’t know. This is that game for me, this game feels like a complete stay away. But as I’ve noted in the past Drew does not stay away from any game so let’s make the case for why the aquatic mammals are the play here. They have an awesome secondary and overall an opportunistic defense and they are playing against the Oprah Winfrey of turnovers (Carson Wentz). The Quenton Nelson injury is also just a killer to a team that all of a sudden can’t block. Colts are in trouble make it double, 0-4 is a hole that may be a little too deep.
Dolphins Win 24-17
panthers +4.5 over COWBOYS
I am going to make my case for why the Cats of Carolina are for real. 1. Their defense is awesome, they are so fast and physical. They fly to the football like a panther catching enter small animal here (apologies about the visualization there). 2. Chuba Hubbard is the real deal. Chuba Hubbard is not Christian McCaffrey, I do not think we need a genetics test to come to that conclusion. However, could Chuba Hubbard be 75-80 percent of Christian McCaffrey? Yes I do believe he can. 3. The Panthers coach actually has concepts of what a clock is. Give me the Panthers to improve to 4-0. Sam Darnold 4-0? What is this world coming to.
Panthers Win 24-22
SAINTS -7 OVER giants
This is a lot of points for an inconsistent Saints team who doesn’t get many chunk plays but here is why I am taking team Who Dat. 1. Their defense is awesome, like end of the Avengers awesome, like a desert Sunset awesome. Giants Offense is not very good, we don’t need a Joe Judge (got jokes!!) to figure that one out. So can I see the Giants failing to score more than 14 points, yes I would consider it likely they don’t even reach 14 points. 2. This is the first game back in New Orleans since they got decimated by a massive hurricane that put their city in peril and brought a community together like few have ever had to in recent years. This also happened 16 years ago to this same city. The following year the Saints had an emotional return home. Ask Michael Vick how that night went. Football is a game based on emotion and momentum. I have my own rating system and I am a huge numbers geek as many of my readers know. However, human nature and intangibles still matter especially in the game of football. In life we can’t touch or measure intangibles. It’s the same as the concept of religion, love, grief, it’s something you feel but cannot touch, this can become confusing or frustrating to many. This is an emotional intangible pick to me. I’ve had success over the years in gauging these types of games. Well see if I’m right.
Saints Win 24-10
chiefs -7 over EAGLES
This is your stereotypical teaser game. This Chiefs team is too well coached, too talented, too special of a Quarterback to lose three in a row and fall to 1-3. Truth is Patrick Mahomes has not had a ton of adversity since he’s been the Quarterback of the Chiefs. I know they have fallen down by 24 in a playoff game, and by 10 in the 4th Quarter of the Super Bowl only for the Iron Chefs to come back to win. But as many doubted him? Answer is no! Right now people are doubting Patrick Mahomes. He’s too casual with the football. He’s not as refined as the new big man on campus Justin Herbert. He can’t rescue this bad defense. Adversity is what we need to make us stronger, some fold under adversity and hide. Some become stronger, they learn from what went wrong, with struggle comes triumph. This 1-2 start is a great thing for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs who needed a wake up call. This game is the turning point in what is still going to be a special season in the land of barbeque, Chiefs bigly.
Chiefs Win 38-17
texans +17.5 over BILLS
Holy Davis Mills!!! 17.5, 17.5?? So the Bills could be down 34-10 with two minutes left and the Texans score a garbage time TD and kick the extra point because the game is over and the Texans would still cover? Yeah I guess I’m going to take the points here. New Tejas Coach David Culley is more conservative than the Republican National Convention but the Texans are not completely incompetent friends. They have a veteran roster and Davis Mills actually has played better than all of the rookies so far (not kidding watch the tape!!). Josh Allen and the Bills will not be on upset alert, calm down there and wipe the wing sauce off your face. But 17.5 points is way too many points to lay.
Bills Win 28-17 (Texans Cover)
FINALLY OUT OF BED WINDOW
RAMS -4 OVER cards
This line has shifted since the beginning of the Week. The public is getting romantic about Kyler Murray right now. He’s small and feisty, and there is nothing he cannot do on the football field. There is one problem here and I’m going to not be romantic and be a numbers nerd here. Sean McVay is 8-0 against Arizona and the only competitive game in that time was where the Rams still won by 7 and that was the only game in McVay’s coaching career where the Rams were eliminated from playoff contention. Not to mention in 4 of the 8 games the Cards (two with Kyler Murray) scored the following points, 0, 0, 7 and 7. I actually do think this is Arizona’s best shot to steal one but I cannot go there until I see Kliff Kingsbury sleigh that McVay dragon.
Rams Win 34-24
hawks -3 over 49ERS
Desperate times in the land of grunge and bubble gum walls. The Hawks have never finished under .500 with Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll at the helm. They have never even finished worse than 2nd place in the division. Now all of a sudden if they lose in Santa Clara on Sunday they are 2 games behind San Fran and the loser of the Cards/Rams for 2nd/3rd place. I just trust a desperate Russell Wilson more than I do a not quite as desperate 49ers team that still doesn’t have cornerbacks or running backs. Come on Russ and Pete, rah rah go Hawks, rah rah go Hawks.
BRONCOS PK OVER ravens
The Vikings were my favorite pick of the year thus far. THE DENVER BRONCOS ARE MY SECOND FAVORITE PICK OF THE YEAR THUS FAR!! The Broncos defense is the end of Usual Suspects awesome, The Broncos Defense is Pizza awesome. They are athletic and fast and I don’t see how the Ravens are going to be able to move the ball in this game without running backs and a banged up Lamar Jackson. The Ravens defense has also been decimated with COVID and injuries all year. The birds a resilient team but they haven’t seen an athletic physical team like this thus far. Justin Tucker kicks 4 55 yard plus field goals for the Ravens points as the Broncos otherwise cruise, team burros is for real mi amigos.
Broncos win 24-12
PACKERS -6.5 OVER steelers
Huge fan bases, probably the two best traveling fan bases in all of football. You cannot go to a sports bar in America on an NFL Sunday and not see an individual wearing a Packers or Steelers jersey. Jim Nantz and Tony Romo has to go do this game, Ratings, history, massive fan bases that span 51 states (Puerto Rico!!), Hall of Fame QB’s, blah blah blah. But I am going to keep it as real as I always do here. The Ravens and Broncos is 998 times more of an intriguing matchup from a football standpoint than this one. The CBS A team should be in the Rocky Mountains instead of soon to be Frozen Tundra of Northern Lake Michigan. This game is a stay away because the Steelers are desperate and getting T.J Watt back. However, if I must I will pick the Packers minus 6.5, they are just significantly better at this point and time.
Packers Win 27-17
THE OH SO BORING SUNDAY NIGHT GAME
PATRIOTS +7 OVER bucs
I love the Pats getting 7 here. Let’s get Adele montage emotional on this one. Since Tom Brady left New England. He has resurrected a franchise that hadn’t made the playoffs in 13 years. Outside of one year in 2002 when Tampa had one of the best defenses ever has been a continual laughing stock since during their entire existence to the point that they are a general punchline to the Depth of Arizona, Cleveland and gulp Detroit. Brady in his first year acquiring this mess of an organization won the freaking Super Bowl in a home game mind you! Yes, the natural response is are you freaking kidding me. Meanwhile Bill Belichick has gone 8-11. Before Brady started in New England early in Bill’s tenure he went 5-13 with a competent QB mind you in Drew Bledsoe. That is a record of 13-24, which in any walk of life is bad. He failed in Cleveland as a coach before (but we all forgave him because it’s Cleveland). Brady’s legacy is cemented, dude isn’t even on the mount Rushmore of Quarterbacks at this point. He has his own plaque on the freaking moon!! Belichick meanwhile is still regarded as a great coach but the data is suggesting that he needed Tommy to be great. If you think that Bill Belichick hasn’t had this game circled on his calendar for two years I want what your having. I am narrative guy, this game has more narratives than a soap opera. Give me the 7 and if your bold enough go NE money line.
Pats win 21-20
JUSTIN HERBERT’S MONDAY NIGHT ROAD-HOME GAME
raiders +3.5 over CHARGERS
This is a numbers pick for me. These teams are pretty much dead even and I’m getting team Darth Vader with the hook. Plus for the 2nd straight home game the Chargers will be having to use a silent count on third and longs, which human nature will say that is quite demoralizing. There are more Raiders fans then Chargers fans in L.A and that isn’t even up for debate. Plus Derek Carr is playing with so much poise and confidence right now. I am waiting for the other shoe to fall like many of you are with the fighting Gruden’s but I’m not sure this is the spot where that happens. It’s really hard to pick against Justin Herbert right now (dude is an absolute baller, shot caller, sorry about the Boy Meets World jokes). But this is a field goal game either way to me, I’ll say Daniel Carlson wins it again for the Raiders who will be 4-0 and yes the Strip has exploded, party time on a Monday!!
Raiders Win 34-31
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 11-5
Season: 27-21-1
Some good ones on the board this week! I’ll roll Minnesota and Denver with ya