It’s another Week of NFL Picks. Week 1 was a rough one for me as the AM Slate in Particular buried me and even though I rallied some in the afternoon and night games I still finished with a losing record. Even the great ones have down Weeks and I expect to get it back in Week 2. So Let’s help you win some dough huh?
The Bloody Mary Window
saints -3 over PANTHERS
When this line was bigger early in the Week I was considering the Panthers but at three points I have to take the Saints and here is why. The Saints have one of the best defensive fronts in all of football. The Panthers weakness is their offensive line. They do not have a terrible offensive line but it is weaker than Green Bay’s Unit and the Saints dominated the Packers and almost will certainly make Sam Darnold see Casper in the secondary (Just joking Sam!). Do I think the Saints are going to dominate in all phases like last week, I do not. But I do believe the Saints can dictate the terms most of this game and win a hard fought football game. The Saints do something they usually do not do and start the Season 2-0. Jameis Winston bandwagon is starting to pile up!!
Saints Win 24-17
texans +12.5 over BROWNS
This is a game that there is just too many points to give. The Browns are the biggest favorite they have been since reentering the NFL in 1999. Vegas is respecting the Browns like they have before. The Browns are favored to win the AFC North for the first time ever this season and even in defeat last Week they looked like one of the best teams in football. So I’m giving all this Browns love so why take the Texans? The Texans are one of the oldest teams in the NFL and even though they aren’t going to be very good they have a veteran presence to their team that will allow them to muddy up a game and not beat themselves. In other words take the points here and be happy I told you to. Browns win but not in the words of a man that has the hair a bird, “bigly”.
Browns Win 27-20, Texans Cover
BEARS -2.5 OVER bengals
The Bears are not a good football team. The Bears will have Justin Fields starting behind center before you know it. The back end of the Bears defense is not even close to what it used to be. The Bears have a lame duck coach and a lame duck General Manager. But the Bears do have one thing that makes me like them in this game, a pass rush. It certainly did not appear that the Bengals have solved the protection issue that plagued them last season. Joe Burrow was sacked five times last Week and pressured many other times. I believe Burrow is just going to get better as he gets more comfortable throughout this season but for this particular game I like the Bears to bounce back and Andy Dalton keeps his job for now.
Bears Win 24-20
raiders +6 over STEELERS
This line does scare me a bit because the Raiders are traveling out East on a short Week but I am still going to take the Raiders and here’s why. Momentum is a big deal in the NFL and many will say that it usually just last in short bursts but if that is true then tell that to the 2020 Buccaneers or the 2019 Chiefs. The momentum is not going to last the entire season but for a Week I love the Raiders to either pull an upset or get close to it. Derek Carr who notoriously struggled against the Blitz was awesome against it last Week which is a great sign for a Vegas team that could surprise soon (including yours truly). The biggest surprise of all was a 54 percent pressure rate by the Raiders defense last Week. Possibly not having Yannick Ngakoue is a huge killer as he has already shown that he will pay dividends this season when on the field. Regardless, the Raiders underrated front gives Big Ben issues and this game comes down to the last minute.
Raiders win 24-23
bills -3 over DOLPHINS
Love the Bills in this spot. Loved them before and love them even more now that Will Fuller the fifth is out for personal reasons. How are the Dolphins going to move the ball in this game? Josh Allen has shredded the Dolphins over the past two seasons like deli meat. In other words what is the reason I can be persuaded to the take the Dolphins? Because Brian Flores is an awesome coach? Because their secondary is awesome and can keep Stefon Diggs and company in check? I do not see it friends. I think the right side is the Bills in a game they must win. Plus good teams more often then not bounce back after a poor performance and the 2021 Bills are a good football team. Take the Bills here and thank me later.
Bills win 30-17
COLTS +3.5 OVER rams
Look at Matthew Stafford throwing the football further than most people can throw a nerf ball. Look at Sean McVay’s bearded cheeks blushing over his new found Quarterback. Love at the Rams defense stifling the Bears whenever the big furry beast appeared they could pose a threat. This one is too easy right.. NOT!!! This is another game I love. The Colts have a sound defense, the Colts still have a good offensive line that was humiliated last Week. This also goes under the well coached team who underperformed last Week umbrella to bounce back. Carson Wentz also has a chip on his shoulder. The World is telling him he can’t play and he’s going against one of the best defenses in football. The public is zigging so I’m going to zag, give me the points. Give me the upset!!
Colts Win 23-20
EAGLES +3 OVER 49ers
I will gladly eat my piece of humble pie when it comes to the Eagles and I must say the pie taste like hot coals. I still do not think they are the favorites to win the NFC East but I do think they could quadruple the 2 wins I was giving them before the season. There is always a team that I think is going to be really bad and they actually aren’t that bad. The Eagles are that team for me in 2021. They are also catching the 49ers in a good spot. The 49ers are already dealing with serious injury issues in their running back and cornerback rooms. There is a chance the 49ers could win this game and hold off those questions for now. However, it’s going to hurt them in the long run in a loaded NFC West. This game is the ultimate stay away for me but I am going to take the Eagles and the points if I have a choice.
Eagles Win 27-24
JAGS +6 OVER broncos
So many home dogs in the AM Slate which always equals madness. This is the ultimate madness game to me as the Broncos on paper look so much better than the overwhelmed/overmatched Jags. The Jags were down 27-7 at the half to a team that some thought wouldn’t win a single game this season just last week. Now the pundits are stating that the Jags can not win a single game this year, overreactions are the best aren’t they? However, I am going to take the Jags to scare the living crap out of the Broncos, who are good but not as good as they showed last week. Trevor Lawrence showed last week that he can play some. He made some next level throws, he proved he’s not afraid of the pass rush. He proved he’s not afraid to challenge the secondary and throw the ball down the field. The Broncos should win this game by two scores, but even Broncos fans will agree that they cannot overlook anyone. I’m not going to take the Jags outright, but the Jags are the side to take here, too many points to be giving an unproven team on the road.
Broncos Win 20-19, Jags Cover
pats -6 over JETS
This is the let’s not think too hard about this and lay the Pats giving less than a touchdown. Jets Left Tackle Mekhi Becton is out for the next 1-2 months. The Jets offensive line was bad to begin with before they lost their best lineman. Bill Belichick eats alive young Quarterbacks. This is an impossible ask for rookie Quarterback Zach Wilson in a game he will need make multiple big plays to even keep the Jets competitive in. Expect Josh McDaniels to open up the playbook more for rookie QB Mac Jones and the Pats to control this game from start to finish. As I stated before do not think twice about it, lay the 6.
Pats win 27-10
Switch to Beer Window
vikings +3.5 over CARDS
The Vikings defense is banged up, the Vikings lost to the Bengals last Week, Chandler Jones was laying waste to a good left tackle. What could he do against an average one. Kyler Murray was awesome last week as he looks healthy and ready for a monster year. There is no reason for Minnesota to even be competitive in this game from the data so why do I take the Vikings plus 3.5 in this game? The ultimate NFL rule that is coming into play here, when an average to decent team plays out of their mind the previous week they almost always come back down to Earth the following Sunday. The Cards are a decent team, but a great team? I need a lot more data before I come to that conclusion. Rookie fourth round pick Marco Wilson is going to have to cover Justin Jefferson all game, um that is a problem and if I was a Justin Jefferson fantasy owner I would be salivating like a hungry puppy at that matchup. This game is a coin flip to me, I’ll take Minnesota in a mini upset. There are reasons why this line is only 3.5 people, I side with Vegas here.
Vikings Win 30-24
falcons +12.5 over BUCS
Why isn’t this line higher? The Falcons lost 32-6 to the Eagles last Week. What do you think Tampa is going to do to them?? This line should be more than two touchdowns right? Well the Bucs were proven last Thursday that you can throw the ball on them. It’s an almost certainty that Matt Ryan is going to throw the ball for over 50 attempts and over 300 yards (take all Matt Ryan overs this Week). With the Bucs all of a sudden being thin in the secondary I do think the Falcons are going to be able to throw the ball in this game and they might not ever try to run it much like the Cowboys last Week. Do not get things twisted, Tom Brady is going to have a big game and the Bucs are going to win this football game but a team that can throw the ball against a banged up secondary, you have to take the points here.
Bucs Win 34-24, Falcons Cover
HAWKS -6 OVER titans
This is the team who looked too damn good against the team that looked too damn bad last Week. Why is the Hawks are only favored by 6? My theory’s state that the Titans are going to show up in a big way as a team that went to the postseason in back to back years should. Although the Remember the Titans aren’t going to lose by 25 again I cannot pick a team with an awful defense to even compete with Russell Wilson right now. Russ is in a zone and he is going to have another monster day, look for D.K Metcalf to have 150 yards receiving and two touchdowns. The Titans offense will play better but I think this game is over by the end of the 3rd as the 12th man assists in giving their blue and green birds a warm welcome back.
Hawks Win 38-27
cowboys +3.5 over CHARGERS
The Cowboys being the visiting team is a very loose statement here. I have some Cowboy fan friends (I’m sure we all do sadly) and I have been joking with them that this is their true home opener. It’s a sad moment for an organization when they are having to do a silent count in their first ever HOME game with fans. I was thoroughly shocked when this line jumped above three but Vegas is giving the Chargers a lot of respect, Justin Herbert is good at football what can you say. This has the potential to be the game of the day and that’s what I’m predicting to happen. I loved what Dak Prescott did in his first start and I this is going to be another matchup of two gunslingers that will go down to the wire. I love getting the extra half point and this is a field goal game either way, I’ll say Dallas this time is able to run the clock down to kick the winning kick as time expires.
Cowboys Win 34-31
Sunday night Football!!!!
chiefs -3.5 over RAVENS
Now here is a Sunday night game we can all get behind. Unfortunately, what was slated by yours truly as the AFC game of the year is no longer that because the Ravens have had so many injuries that it’s turning into the season from hell for them. The 49ers and Broncos last season were prime examples that in today’s football teams do not have the depth to withstand an abundance of injuries, especially to multiple position groups as is the case with the purple birds. This is a game that will test that theory as one thing is certain the Ravens will not come out flat and don’t be surprised if they score first. But fact of the matter is that Mahomes and company will just wear out their defense in the second half as the Chiefs prove to a national audience that they are still the best team in football.
Chiefs Win 37-20
Monday Night Football
PACKERS -11.5 OVER lions
Man Bun’s commence!! There is a reason why this line is 11.5 even though the team favored by double digits lost 38-3 in Week 1. The Packers struggle against physical football teams and even though Macho Man Dan Campbell is trying to create a culture of toughness and discipline the Lions are not there yet. If you ever learned anything about Aaron Rodgers in his career is he does struggle from behind sometimes and can be tight in the clutch. That is a criticism that is fair and just. But Aaron Rodgers might as well be Tiger freaking Woods when a front runner. When Aaron Rodgers has a lead and is in a rhythm he is a freaking terminator. This is a game where the Packers are up 21-3 with still ten minutes to play in the first half and everyone is like oh yeah that’s why the Packers are still going 12-5 or 13-4 this year. DREW’S PICK OF THE WEEK. Anything under two touchdowns in this game is easy money, take the Pack and thank me later.
Packers Win 40-17
This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 6-9-1
Season: 6-10-1