Drew’s Divisional Round Picks

Hello friends, I have been on a roll as I went 4-2 last week. I’m here to make everyone some money so let’s keep this train rolling. Remember that HOME TEAMS are in CAPS.

rams +6.5 over PACKERS

This is purely a value pick as and my favorite pick of this weekend. The Rams continued their defensive dominance holding Russell Wilson and the Seahawks to their least efficient game of the season with only 278 yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play. I see why many of you will ride the Pack here. Aaron Rodgers is in a zone that isn’t human right now, like a cyborg from a future time. The Rams don’t know if it’s Johnny Wolford with a busted neck or Jared Goff with a busted thumb. West coast team in cold Green Bay, etc etc. Let me persuade you with three reasons to take the Rams +6.5. #1, Defense wins in the playoffs and the Rams don’t give up chunk plays which the Packers thrive on. #2 The Rams can run the football and keep Aaron Rodgers watching on the sidelines. #3 and my biggest reason Jalen Ramsey is a wide receiver shutting down machine (see DeAndre Hopkins and D.K Metcalf’s game logs against L.A). For how en fuego Devante Adams as been down the stretch I would be surprised to see Adams top 75 yards receiving in this game with Ramsey attached to his hip for three hours. I don’t know who’s going to win but let’s make it fun and take L.A to win outright.

Rams win 22-20

BILLS -2.5 over ravens

Snow is in the forecast on a night game in Buffalo between the two hottest teams not named the Packers right now. If it was more than a 40 percent chance and a full blown blizzard I may side with the more run centric Ravens here but I am going with the home team and here’s why. The Bills are a very good situational football team. I can see the Ravens moving the ball with their vaunted rushing attack but having drives stalled in the red zone setting for field goals as the Bills defense has been very feisty over last two months (19 per game in points allowed since Week 12). The Bills have been an awesome themselves in the red zone since Week 13 (over 90 percent td efficiency). Expect Stefon Diggs to make the always opportunistic yet overaggressive Marcus Peters bite on a double move to get a big touchdown sometime in the second quarter to give the Bills the lead for good, let’s say from 50 yards out. Josh Allen has had a passer rating of 104 or higher in 10 of 17 games. 5 of his last six Allen’s had a passer rating of at least 114. The Ravens defense is loaded with talent and experience on every level but the last two times the Ravens played a hot offense they gave up 42 (Browns) and 34 (Chiefs and could have been way more in that game) and I just don’t see the Ravens making enough stops in this game. Bills pull away in the third quarter and hold on late.

Bills win 30-22

browns +9.5 over CHIEFS

This pick is my least confident of the four and I think the Browns have only a slim chance of winning outright but I’m taking the number here not the moneyline. My rationale is I feel confident the Browns will take an early lead against a rusty Chiefs team who hasn’t played in three weeks. Expect the Chiefs to wake up out of their early slumber and dominate the second and third quarters when Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the Iron Chefs light up an overmatch Brownies secondary. The Browns rushing attack will keep this game close for at least a half. The Chiefs have been susceptible to the run between the tackles for eons and 2020 hasn’t been any different and the Browns get guard Joel Bitonio back this week (an elite run blocker). These are the reasons to take the points and hold your breath in a game that the Browns shorten the amount of total possessions. A backdoor cover is highly probable here. the backdoor cover has been a ritual against the Chiefs in the second half who haven’t covered since Week 8 (yet being 8-1 outright with the only loss coming in a meaningless Week 17 game where all of the star players sat). The over and Browns to score first parlayed with Chiefs moneyline is a good play here.

Chiefs win 34-26 but Browns cover the spread

buccaneers +3 over SAINTS

You are all going to think I’m crazy. The Saints have outscored the Bucs 72-26 in two meetings this year and absolutely pulverized the Bucs in the house with the pirate boat last time these teams met. Why am I taking Tampa. Let’s not even go with stats here and I’ll emphasize this in caps. IS TOM BRADY LOSING TO THE SAME TEAM THREE TIMES IN BLOWOUT FASHION??? Tom Brady is playing as well as any quarterback in football proving that avocado shakes and lunges goes a long way to contributing to still being awesome at football at 43 years young. The issue I have with the Saints is that Drew Brees does not throw the ball over the top. Sean Peyton is a wizard at dialing up confusing looks from basic formations to get Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas open on short passing routes but this the third time these teams are playing and there isn’t going to be much to confuse Todd Bowles unit much here. The way I see the Saints winning is the Saints defensive line dominating up front which they are capable of. What furthers my argument for the Bucs is I thought Washington did a fantastic job last week hitting Brady repeatedly hitting the goat while sacking him three times yet Brady still threw for 381 and two touchdowns (over last four Brady has averaged 380 with 3 touchdowns a game with only 1 total pick). I’ll take the Bucs to get their revenge they so desire in what sadly will be Drew Brees final game.

Bucs win 33-24

Records

Wildcard Round 4-2

Weeks 12-17 51-38-5