Hi everyone, I want to be the first to wish everyone a Happy New Years. 2021 has been a crazy year for many of us and we can use a good reset. Last week many game got hit last minute by COVID and effected my picks (example Saints on Monday night). Now as we venture into Week 17 many teams are getting players back this week so I believe we have a little bit of an even playing field. But as we have said before who knows, this crazy season continues to confound me but let’s give it a crack shall we? At least enjoy my humor and hot takes!!
AM WINDOW
COLTS -7 OVER raiders
I’m taking Sam Ehlinger laying a touchdown? Well we all heard that the Colts reached out to Phillip Rivers this week. That would have been one of the most awesome things ever. Phillip Rivers after coaching high school football and being the best soccer dad ever (you need a bigger mini van Phil!!) to come in relief for a game and lead the Colts to a big win that all but secures them a playoff berth. Taking Ehlinger (assuming Carson Wentz isn’t cleared by kickoff) is a huge ask but everyone else on the Colts is returning and they a far better roster and momentum. Derek Carr and the Vaders have been the horror movie villain (they just won’t die) but I think this film has finally hit it’s climax.
Colts Win 27-17
BEARS -5.5 OVER giants
This game is so bad it’s hilarious. I feel like I’m watching an episode of the bachelorette with the Quarterback carousel both of these teams. For the Bears it may be Andy Dalton (why over Nick Foles??? Serious question) or Justin Fields. But no matter who starts for the Bears I’m still going to lay the 5.5 because Joe Judge said a bad word in the football world, Quarterback platoon!! Not even a Quarterback Platoon it’s a Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm. Joe you might as well have Will Ferrell and your truly platoon at QB for your G you not’s on Sunday. At least it would be funny, well actually it’s going to be pretty funny anyways. Hide your eyes kids, it’s cold enough in Chicago to begin with, find some other way to spend this Sunday.
Bears Win 23-13
bucs -13.5 over JETS
This is hedging Thomas Brady over a bad team. The Jets did get a very gritty win over the Jags last Sunday but the Jets (even as they have shown some upside at times this season) are a bad football team. The Bucs have been very business like this season in their work (as long as they aren’t playing the Saints) and usually crash bad teams. Tom Brady wants to prove he’s still an MVP candidate and nothing would help more then throwing five touchdowns against this sorry excuse for a Jets defense. Tis the Season for Brady to crush the Jets again, Saleh la la la la la la la la, I got jokes, Bucs big.
Bucs Win 38-17
BILLS -14.5 OVER falcons
You cannot make this line high enough. The Falcons are 7-8 but if you read my power rankings you know that 7-8 is more deceiving than a Trevor Hoffman Change up (little baseball humor for you lockouts suck!). The Falcons have lost by 13 or more against any good team they have played this season (6 such games). Meanwhile the Bills win by 12 over the Pats last week was their first win (the other 8 have been by at 15 points) by less than two touchdowns this season. In other words when the Bills win they are Ivan Drago because they break you. This is a mismatch upon mismatches, sing it shout come on now shout come on now!!!!!!
Bills Win 34-13
WFT +4.5 OVER eagles
I am a man so I speak for other men when I say this. Men are very ego centric. We care about being the most masculine, the baddest, toughest guy out there. Women listen to me when I say that we may be even more emotional and sensitive then you are on many subjects. Why is this relevant with this pick Drew? Well I will tell you why. The Washington unprofessional football team was humiliated, emasculated and embarrassed in a stand alone game last week. Defensive lineman punching each other on the sidelines, Taylor Heinicke having night terrors about Micah Parsons, and Ron Rivera wondering if retirement may be a better option at this point. What a man does when they get humiliated often will define them and not the getting humiliated part. This is a gut check game for a proud coach, quarterback and team. Plus Washington is getting many key players back for this game. Nothing would pleasure Ron Rivera’s group more after losing by 100 to the Cowboys than to spoil a division rival that is getting a little bit cocky themselves. This is an under the radar intriguing game to me. Saying Little Jon, YEAHHHHHH!
WFT wins 24-22
BENGALS +5 OVER chiefs
This is the marquee game of the week to me. The Bengals are the new toy in town. They are showing off to all the girls (smile look at me), and all of the boys are wanting to be just like them. Joe Burrow threw for 525 yards and four touchdowns in a vintage 41-21 win over the Ravens practice squad last week. So many pundits would say so the Chiefs who have been the big man on campus for four years now are going to squish the new toy like a bug right? Well not so fast there Cowboy! The Chiefs have been laying teams to waste recently but they have not during this 8 game winning streak played an offense has dynamic as the Bengals (the Cowboys and Packers had key players out in those games). Plus this game means SO much more from a playoff standpoint and a psychological standpoint to the Bengals. I see a kitchen sink game here from the Queen City Tigers. I see Joe Burrow being fantastic in this game and this game coming down to the final seconds. I’m going to say the Bengals get that signature win that officially puts them on the map. I said it before this is the new AFC rivalry. I think the AFC is going to be run by the Chiefs, Bengals, Bills and Chargers for the next five years. Going to be a ton of fun my friends.
Bengals Win 37-34
jaguars +15.5 over PATRIOTS
Why is it my inclination to take the Jags here. They are awful upon awful, the stench of Urban Meyer’s cologne is wreaking from Duvall County all the up through Charleston South Carolina. Yet with what I have seen from Mac Jones recently I just see this being an ugly football game that the Pats win but don’t dominate in. This is crazy to me that Trevor Lawrence has only thrown one touchdown in the last 8 games. Has the stench of Urban Meyer ruined the best Quarterback prospect of the last decade. I don’t want to go there but this data is making me consider going there, let’s not go all Josh Rosen though and give the Clemson Tiger another year to develop. This is just an awful game. With a win the Pats are almost certainly in the postseason so good for you Billy B for getting your crew back to the big dance.
Patriots Win 24-10 (Jaguars cover)
dolphins +3 over TITANS
In my best bets video yesterday I got the Dolphins at 3.5 but I love the Dolphins money line in this game so not getting the hook doesn’t matter to me. In the Dolphins seven wins they have allowed 9, 10, 17. 10, 9, 24 (Tua give the Jets 14 of those) and 3. Brian Flores defense has created a zero blitz no nonsense mentally and it has shown ridiculous results, 34 (34!!!!) sacks in the last seven games. This defense is awesome and the Titans still do not have Derrick Henry and struggle to move the football against average defenses. I know that A.J Brown is back but when he gets tackled after a five yard gain on third and ten because Ryan Tannehill had to get rid of the football too early it doesn’t matter. I am starting to believe that Brian Flores might just get a team that was 1-7 to the playoffs. I’m drinking too much Hawaiian punch, can’t help it friends, it’s sugary goodness.
Dolphins Win 24-17
RAVENS +4.5 OVER rams
This game screams stay away, but you know the rules I am not going to ever stay away so let’s make a couple of plausible cases for the Ravens to cover. 1. This is the season for Baltimore, if they lose this game they are done like dinner and would have officially completed a late season collapse nobody could have ever expected from a team coached by John Harbaugh (I know the injuries are at the point of no return here). 2. Lamar Jackson may return, with a caveat. If Lamar is not healthy enough to be Lamar they have to go with Tyler Huntley (did you see him play against the Browns and Packers, dude can spin it). 3. Can we continue to trust Matthew Stafford in big games. He was fantastic in a huge win over the Cardinals but in the last two weeks he’s been very pedestrian as the Rams defense and special teams has carried the load. I will take the Rams to win but I like getting the 4.5, should be a close game.
Rams Win 27-24 (Ravens Cover)
LATE WINDOW
broncos +6.5 over CHARGERS
Am I being duped? So Drew Lock played about half of the first meeting between these two teams and the Broncos still won by 15. So in the rematch the Chargers are favored by almost a touchdown? I am going to give 2 basic reasons why this is a brutal matchup for the Chargers and the only play in this game is taking the points. 1. The Chargers cannot (I repeat cannot) stop the run. The Broncos are going to want to run the ball with impunity and will likely succeed at doing so. 2. The Chargers cannot run the ball themselves and will try to throw it (Broncos have arguably the best pass defense in football and look examples, Eagles, Raiders games you run the ball to beat Denver not throw it). I know the we lost the key to unlock Drew (terrible joke I know) but I see this as an either or game and I’m going to go with Denver to win outright. A crazy scenario to think that the Chargers could finish in last place (which would be ridiculous wouldn’t it?).
Broncos Win 23-20
texans +12.5 over 49ERS
I am getting 12.5 with my guy Davis Mills. I gotta take the points here and this game could end up being a scary one for the 49ers. It is sounding like Jimmy Garoppolo is going to play through his sprained right thumb on Sunday but this just gives me even more confidence in my boy Davis Mills to bring horror and fear to the 49ers fans hearts. This game could go sideways if Kyle Shannahan’s offense goes on 9 minutes drives and the Texans never see the ball, this is possible for sure. However, the Texans are the bad team that nobody wants to play right now as they are the drunk that keep getting lucky at the blackjack table. I wouldn’t want to be the house right now trying to slow down ol Culley and Mills (sounds like awful firm doesn’t it). Well see the Niners win a close one.
49ers Win 27-23 (Texans Cover)
COWBOYS -6 OVER cardinals
The Cardinals are Robert De Niro in Jackie Brown. They came out of jail and appeared to flourish but ended up folding under pressure and is about to have Samuel L. Jackson (the Cowboys in this sense) take their lights and say what Sam said so eloquently in that scene (what happened to you, you were beautiful). We can use Quentin Tarantino to quote many situations in life but the legendary actors role in Jackie Brown so perfectly sums up the Cardinals 2021 season. Cowboys fans are going to hate me for quoting Nickleback for them, “but something’s gotta go wrong because I’m feeling way too damn good.” Even though this game screams trap I cannot take Arizona who is missing Markus Golden in a game that they need their pass rush to hang around. Well see, probably a stay away but if you take a side take the boys in blue.
Cowboys Win 31-20
panthers +6.5 over SAINTS
Taysom Hill returns from being on the COVID list and should bring some stability to an offense that looked hopeless in a 20-3 loss to the Dolphins on Monday night. Sometimes in life when the public zigs you zag. I’m going to take the points in this game for two reasons. 1. The Saints have not scored a touchdown in two weeks. Their offense has scored less than 10 points in three of their last five games which says to me if you can’t even score double digits how in gods green earth can I lay a touchdown with you. 2. Teams have been bad over the years down the stretch (this Panthers team fits this profile to a tee) but usually even bad teams will have a game in which they have things fall their way and hang around. I don’t see this game being a blowout with the way the Saints offense is playing and the Panthers still have a competent defense. I’ll take the points but think the Saints find a way late to pull it out. Under for days here, it’s going to be Paul Wall ugly in here.
Saints Win 17-13 (Panthers Cover)
SEAHAWKS -7.5 OVER lions
Jared Goff may or may not play and I’m sure many are asking me why would I take the Seahawks here. The loss to the Bears last week was an embarrassing performance by a proud football team. Russell Wilson may not want to be there but he also is having his reputation as an elite Quarterback be put into question with his recent play. I see an F U game from the former Wisconsin badger in this one. I don’t know if the F U is to the Seahawks fans (as this may be his last home game), the critics, or to his coaching staff (look what you will be missing Peter!!), but an F U game nonetheless from number 3.
Seahawks Win 27-13
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
vikings +13 over PACKERS
No Kirk Cousins on Sunday night as he was put on the COVID list. So Sean Mannion will get the nod behind center, who’s Sean Mannion. Well I’ll tell you.. Sean Mannion was born in San Jose California, he went to the university of Oregon State (Beavers up!!) where he had a decent career as a four year starter throwing 83 touchdowns. He was drafted in the third round of the 2015 draft (89th overall) by the then St. Louis Rams and spent his first four seasons in Eastern Missouri/Southern California (in case you forgot the Rams are in L.A now). In the 2019 offseason, Mannion signed with the Vikings to be Kirk Cousins backup and now he gets his chance in a standalone game against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (horray!!). Why take the points Drew? Is Sean Mannion really seven points worse than primetime Kirk Cousins? Also, Packers don’t crush teams (even bad ones we have a 15 game sample size to prove this). Lastly Dalvin Cook is back and he’s going to run a lot and probably successfully against a terrible run defense. Line is overreaction, there is value with Minnesota here but no way Packers lose this game.
Packers Win 27-17 (Vikings Cover)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
browns -3.5 over STEELERS
Big Ben’s last game at Heinz Field and you are taking the Browns what is wrong with you Drew!! My name is Ebenezer Scrooge and this is my palace!! When the Steelers keep going three and out and the Browns are Nick Chubbing a depleted Steelers defense to pieces you will thank me later. Not every movie has a happy ending. Have you seen Infinity War, Seven, The Usual Suspects, I can go on and on here. It’s been a great ride for Ben Roethlisberger but losing at home to the Browns is actually a fitting end to a spectacular career. I still can’t get the look out of my head, the dejected look on Big Ben’s face after getting blown out in the playoffs last season to a team he had owned his entire career up until that point, I will stop being cynical now otherwise I will lose all credibility to all of Steelers nation. No I do not own a yellow towel maam.
Browns Win 30-20
Last Week: 5-11
Season: 123-114-2