Happy Friday everyone, we have officially made it to Championship week!!! I am on a heater right now at 7-3 for the playoffs. Let’s get to the picks, I am here to make us some money so let’s go!!!!!!!! HOME TEAM IN CAPS
PACKERS -3.5 OVER buccanneers
Going against Tom Brady in the playoffs especially as an underdog is tough but here is why I am taking the Pack with confidence. The Packers just put up 484 yards and 6.5 yards per play against the best defense in football last week. The Packers didn’t just need Aaron Rodgers to win but the Pack ran for 188 yards 5.2 yards per rush in that game. The Packers outside of a half against the Panthers have been on an offensive demolition since Week 11 scoring 30 or more in every game except that Panthers Week 15 game. We do remember the 38-10 demolition in Week 6 by the Bucs over the Packers and is dually noted but if you look at the entire seasons data that game was an outlier and not the norm. The Bucs are very sloppy this season, always seem to have the big penalty and they looked like a box of misfit toys all season long. I think this a very competitive game, I can’t see Tom Brady getting blown out in the playoffs in any scenario. That being said I think Rodgers and Pack control the game and seal it with some first downs late to get A Rod back to his first super bowl in ten years.
Packers win 31-24
CHIEFS -3 OVER bills
The Second game is the game I feel more confident than the first (I love both home teams this week) and here’s why in five reasons. #5 The Chiefs haven’t had that smack down game in a long time. Patrick Mahomes is banged up and because of that people are doubting him and the Chiefs (a lot of money on Buffalo here) and the greats always thrive in those nobody believes in us moments. #4 The Chiefs have been here before and this is all new to the Bills. We have seen over the years inexperienced teams play more tight as the playoffs get deeper with the intensity ratcheting up. The Chiefs will not have an issue here, I can see the Bills coming out tight. #3 The Chiefs are 24-1 in their last 25 games!!! Did we forget outside of a 40-32 loss to the Raiders in Week 5 the Chiefs have only lost one game in the last 14 months. If you want to count the 38-21 Week 17 loss to the Chargers be my guest but I am not counting that game since Andy Reid treated that game as a scrimmage. #2 Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Sammy Watkins have a great chance of returning. With two of the biggest skill players for the Chiefs possibly returning Patrick Mahomes will have his full compliment of skill talent. Rain is likely in the forecast to make it look very similar to Week 6’s game in Buffalo when the Chiefs ran for 245 yards and C.E.H had 161 yards himself. I would expect the Chiefs to continue with a balanced attack in this game as the Bills are weaker against the run then against the pass. #1 No Zack Moss. The way to beat the Chiefs over the past three seasons is to lower possessions and run the ball efficiently. The Bills even with healthy running back Zack Moss was not an efficient running team (many games they don’t even try to run). If you think Josh Allen can throw for 425 yards and beat Mahomes 41-38 in a 14 possession game be my guest. I cannot in my right mind take the Bills under these circumstances. I would snag the three now before Mahomes clears to play because the line will likely climb a point or two before kickoff. We get the Mahomes VS Rodgers super bowl we all are salivating for, not a bad start to 2021.
Chiefs win 34-17
Playoffs: 7-3
Weeks 12-17: 51-38-5