Hi everyone, went 2-2 last week but made money on the games I likes (Baltimore, Green Bay). This week I like one game and will make a small wager on the second game. Let’s get to it shall we.
chiefs +4.5 over RAVENS
This line is going up. Everyone and their mother is picking Baltimore and I get it. They are a hell of a team and Lamar Jackson has become a complete Quarterback. I’m just going to lay this out. Patrick Mahomes is 8-1-1 against the spread as an underdog. He is 3-0 straight up as an underdog of more than 3. To go by everyone game individually I’ll be quick. Mahomes first two starts as a full time starter in 2018 he was a bigger than 3 point underdog (wins at the Chargers and Steelers). The only other time sideshow Pat was a bigger than 3 point underdog since then was a Week 3 Monday Night game in 2020 at these Ravens (birds favored by 3.5). To start the history of where the Ravens stood at this time, the Ravens went 5-1 down the stretch with Lamar Jackson in 2018 (ironically the only loss was was an OT loss to the Chiefs) before losing to the Chargers in the wildcard round. The Ravens then went 14-2 in 2019 including winning their final 12 games before getting upset by the Titans in the divisional round. Then the Ravens won their first two games of 2020 by a combined score of 71-22 to pull their regular season win total to 14 straight and their point differential in those games to plus 263 (or about 19 points a game better than their opponents). Sure the Chiefs were the defending champs but this Ravens team was historically awesome (just like right now) going into that game (probably even better than this Ravens team to be honest). How did that game go? 34-20 Chiefs with the Chiefs outgaining the Ravens 517-228, with Patrick Mahomes throwing for 385 yards and 4 touchdowns (including one to an offensive lineman). Lamar Jackson didn’t even have 100 yards passing. This Chiefs team is not as good as that version but I also think the Ravens are far more beatable than the 2019 early 2020 version (don’t think the birds as explosive on the ground and can be had some on the ground). I think the game is close late and I just trust Patrick Mahomes to again lead his Chiefs back to the Super Bowl. Can’t go against Pat when nobody believes in him, and nobody does here, it’s nuts to me. Putting a nice sum on K.C to cover and small token on the Money line.
Chiefs Win 24-20
lions +7 over 49ERS
Now this one is exactly where the line should be. I hear some people saying that the 49ers should be favored by closer to 10 as they have dominated the NFC all year and had one of their worst team performances last week against the Packers and still won and will revert back to their mean this week. I think the line is right where it should be and here is why. The Lions have the number one offensive line in football by PFF, the 49ers defensive line is overrated (sans Javon Hargrave). I think the Lions can run the ball on the Niners and I think they can sustain long drives. Due to this expect some nervousness early from Kyle Shanahan. Now I do think strongly that 49ers offense against the Lions defense is a big problem and after a slow start the Niners just dominate over the final three quarters. Brock Purdy should have a bounce back game against this secondary. Expect George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk to have monster games and I would do some parlay’s with both of those guys. For the game itself, I am taking the points because I just think it’s too rich for my blood with this Lions offense that can at least keep it close. I can see very strongly the Lions getting a back door cover after the 49ers take control of the game in the 3rd and early 4th Quarter. Yup just like 4 years ago (right before the Pandemic) 49ers and Chiefs in the big game.
49ers win 34-29 (Lions cover)
Last Week: 2-2
Playoffs: 6-4