Hi everyone, I am getting it going again and slowly creeping back to .500. Back to back winning weeks and a W to start this week. Marcus Mariotta might just be about ready to ride the bench and yes god does love Tom Brady as it seems inevitable that his Bucs are going to run away with the NFC South. Anyways, let’s get to the picks shall we???
SOURKRAUT AND BEER FOR BREAKFAST
BUCS -3 OVER seahawks
Seahawks are so great they are going to the Super Bowl. Pete Carroll is proving to the world that it was him and not Russell Wilson that was the reason for those great teams of the mid 2010’s blah blah blah. Many of the sharps and experts are taking Seattle plus 3, why not they have looked better than the Bucs. But Todd Bowles and a fast defense is the elixir to stopping an overachieving offense.
Bucs Win 24-17
EGGS WINDOW
CHIEFS -9.5 OVER jaguars
Much of the world would say take the points, none of the Jags losses have been by more than 7 all year. I am going the other way here. I think the Chiefs are just far better and I also think that every other game we are going to see a supernova Chiefs offense. Oddly, it’s happened primarily on the road but one more week of Ka’Darius Toney in the offense makes it scary for the opposition.
Chiefs Win 34-17
texans +5 over GIANTS
I see a lot of smoke and mirrors with the Giants and Vegas tends to agree with me. Why else would a one win Houston team only be a 5 point underdog on the road at the 6-2 Giants!!! Yeah because DVOA, Drewrating, whatever other metric you look at the Giants are pretty average playing great in key spots. Either way give me the Texans to keep it close or even steal it outright, other shoe drops.
Texans Win 21-19
STEELERS +1.5 OVER saints
Love me Mike Tomlin as a home dog, especially a home dog over Andy Dalton. I get it why the Saints are favored but this Saints team is about to go off a cliff and as I’ve said publicly this Steelers team is going to not make the playoffs but be a nightmare to play in the second half as Kenny Pickett gets more comfortable in the NFL. Also T.J Watt is coming back, Andy Dalton turnover show,? I see it!!
Steelers Win 23-19
BEARS -3 OVER lions
I pulled the Bears from my best bets this morning. It’s mostly that I am just afraid of the Bears as a favorite (enjoy wagering on them as a plucky underdog). Maybe I shouldn’t be though. The Jared Goff/Dan Campbell ERA has authored a road record of 0-11-1 and that tie was in a rain storm against Mason Rudolph (who is on the Steelers practice squad I believe), yeah Justin Fields has a fun day in a win.
Bears Win 30-20
browns +3.5 over DOLPHINS
Fine Dolphins fans who were ripping me on twitter for not giving you more love I will rescind the Browns from my best bets but you are not scaring me from picking the Brownies to cover in this game. You beat the Steelers, Lions and Bears (three of the worst teams in league) by a combined 13 points. A much more talented Browns team is certainly the right side here and I will take the 3.5 all day long.
Browns Win 27-24
BILLS -3.5 OVER vikings
Remember how I was saying the Bills are overvalued. If Josh Allen plays on Sunday (even if it’s Case Keenum) I love laying getting less than four against a Vikings team that has a better record but is not nearly as good of a team as the Bills. This line should be 5 or 6 and it’s 3.5. Vegas has swung violently the other way as this line would be Bills minus 9 a week ago. Bills win and cover, they’re better.
Bills Win 30-16
TITANS -3 OVER broncos
Remember that Garrett Bolles (the underrated left tackle for the Broncos) is out for the year. The strength of this Titans team is their defensive front, I do not like this matchup for the Broncos front. I would recommend to stay away from this game but if I took a side it would be Titans with Ryan Tannehill returning. Remember that coaching matters and this is as big of a coaching mismatch as it gets.
Titans Win 17-12
POTATOES WINDOW
colts +4.5 over RAIDERS
This game screams stay away, how can anyone who’s not a degenerate bet on this game. You got the Raiders that have less confidence than a science whiz on a football field against a team that head coach was not in the building until four days ago. How does Jeff Saturday author up a gameplan and playbook in less than a week. I don’t know but I’ll just take the points, can’t trust L.V.
Colts Win 21-20
cardinals +1.5 over RAMS
There are two games that bettor should stay away from. The first game is that aforementioned Colts Raiders slog fest the other one is this game. These teams just met 10 months ago in this same building in the playoffs, now the loser of this game will probably finish in last place in the division. Just sad times in the Southwest. I guess I’ll take the Cards plus 1.5 since it sounds like their QB will play?
Rams Win 17-16 (Cardinals Cover)
PACKERS +4.5 OVER cowboys
I am going with sharp play/overvaluing the Cowboys/overreacting to the Packers recent weird struggles. Fact of the matter is that the Packers backs are to the wall and it’s a kitchen sink game. I think this defense has played awesome football over the past six quarters. My recommendation here is to parlay a G.B/under here. I think this is a lowscoring slugfest. Rodgers stays alive barely.
Packers Win 22-17
SUNDAY NIGHT
49ERS -7 OVER chargers
This is where the metrics and people who watch football understand the line and the side here. The Chargers may have the better record but the Niners are by far the better team. Plus an all of a sudden healthy offensive line and the Christian McCaffrey/Elijah Mitchell combo against a terrible run defense, sign me up. Also sign up Justin Herbert to a book club, he’s will have time to sit n read.
49ers Win 31-17
MONDAY NIGHT
commanders +11 over EAGLES
Too many points here. Have you ever watched a Washington game with Taylor Heinicke at Quarterback. The colt hero with the last name similar to a Dutch beer has time in and time out (remove a winter day in North Texas) played competitive against superior competition. The Eagles are awesome but I will take Taylor Heinicke/Ron Rivera as a double digit dog everyday that ends in y here.
Eagles Win 27-20 (Commanders Cover)
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 6-4-3
Season: 62-69-6