Hi everyone, I am slowly creeping back up towards .500 after a disasterous midseason run. Maybe you should start riding with me instead of fading me. Would take a couple of more good weeks to get myself over .500 but I am going to get there, you wait and see. Tricky week but I like my picks, let’s get to it.
EGGS WINDOW
PATRIOTS -5.5 OVER colts
I am not going to say I love laying 5.5 points with Mac Jones having less confidence than the quiet outcast trying to ask the most popular girl in school to prom. But I am going to take Bill Belichick against Sam Ehlinger without Jonathan Taylor simply because I do not see (except if Mac Jones starts turning it over) the Colts being able to muster over 200 yards of offense and 10 plus points here
Patriots Win 19-10
JETS +11.5 OVER bills
This pick is so gross but I am going to keep saying the Bills are overvalued by a field goal every week right now until Vegas brings their lines down to more an elite NFL team than a highly ranked college team. So why take the Jets, it’s Zach Wilson against a great defense. Jets front is going to beat the living hell out of Josh Allen, this is actually a terrible matchup for the Bills front, Bills still win.
Bills Win 23-13 (Jets Cover)
BEARS +4 OVER dolphins
This is going to be a really fun game and I am tempted to take the Bears to win outright and here’s why. It’s going to be 66 in Chicago on Sunday which is a rare fantastic late fall day in the windy city. But the wind is going to be about 30 miles an hour. So that takes away the aerial and speed attack the Dolphins would have a clear advantage on. I will give the Phins the edge but it’s very close at end.
Dolphins Win 23-20 (Bears Cover)
vikings -3 over COMMANDERS
This is why gambling is confusing. The Football team was a three point dog to Sam Ehlinger and now they are a three point dog the following week to a much better Vikings team. I still see some smoke and mirrors with this Vikings team but I think the wise guys who are pounding Washington are overvaluing the Commanders recent success. I’ll take the Vikes to get to 7-1, can’t believe this.
Vikings Win 27-20
packers -3.5 over LIONS
This feels like the get right game for the Packers. I quit believing in this Lions team after the 29-0 beatdown in Foxboro. I am going to believe in them even less after Aaron Rodgers and company inevitably get their season back on track with a convincing win on Sunday. I think the Packers found something in that game in Buffalo and it’s time for A Rod and company to right the ship, calling my shot here
Packers Win 34-20
chargers -3 over FALCONS
Maybe it’s just the fan in me that looks ahead but I have to think the Bolts are going to have some desperation off a bye and this is a must win. I know they do not have their top two receivers and Brandon Staley is still their coach. But with the Niners and Chiefs as their next two if the Chargers fail to beat a frisky but flawed Falcons team Brandon Staley will be on his way out, can’t lose to Sea/Atl.
Chargers Win 28-24
panthers +7.5 over BENGALS
Sometimes in life just take the points and don’t overthink it. This is a spot for the Bengals you would think they would get right but here’s why I see a struggle. Bengals have so many key injuries and the Panthers even after that tough loss is coming into Cincinnati with a lot of confidence. P.J Walker may be the best Quarterback on this roster, wow. Burrow wins it late but this ends up being fun gm
Bengals Win 27-23 (Panthers Cover)
JAGUARS +1.5 OVER raiders
Sometimes you are dirty and need a shower and that’s what I will need after watching whatever this game is going to be after three hours. Just tons of underwhelming play, bad coaching, weird play calling, you name it. Both of these teams should be in the postseason conversation but the winner of this game is hanging on by a thread, loser is done, Jags have to win a close one sometime?
Jaguars Win 24-22
CHICKEN TENDERS WINDOW
CARDINALS -2 OVER seahawks
Desperation brings urgency. So everyone on CBS (except Dave Richard) and ESPN is picking the Hawks. Bill Simmons picking the Hawks, almost guarantee (I’m writing this at 9:30 PDT) Colin Cowherd in his blazing five are picking the Hawks. If all experts with a mega phone is yelling SEATTLE!! Why is this line not moved? More talented and desperate team for me here. Cards need it and get it.
Cardinals Win 31-24
BUCS -3 OVER rams
I am not as confident in the Bucs as I am in the Packers in righting the ship (yes a little Pirate humor for you). However, in this spot the Rams are the beached whale just lying there where as the Bucs are the wounded Jellyfish resting and nursing itself back to health. Feel for Tom Brady but I think his divorce being official will help him focus on football and on this Sunday it makes a difference.
Bucs Win 24-13
SUNDAY NIGHT
titans +12.5 over CHIEFS
I’ll be honest here this is my bet if Ryan Tannehill plays and since I think he’s going to, I’ll take the Titans to muddy up a game and make Chiefs fans sweat a bit. Here is the overall deal. This is the best offense on third down (52 percent) against the best defense on third down (25 percent). A Titans defense that has been playing well and match up okay with K.C uglies the game up and gets a cover here.
Chiefs Win 24-19 (Titans Cover)
SAINTS -2.5 OVER ravens
For the second straight week a Monday night home dog against an AFC North heavyweight is my favorite play of the week. This Saints offense has actually been awesome since Andy Dalton has taken over. Point totals under the red rifle (25, 39, 26, 34 and 24 in a game they called off the dogs since it was 24-0), plus the Ravens are banged up everywhere. It’s going to be a party in the bayou on Monday!!
Saints Win 31-23
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 9-6
Season: 56-65-3