Hi everyone,. I finally got a Thursday night win for the first time this season. But winning a bet on that game last night was like winning a race against as a 39 year old against a community of retired people. Sure it counts but you shouldn’t feel too proud about it. But I am over .500 on the season and ready to make a run. A lot of games I feel good about this week so let’s get to it!!
LONDON GAME
PACKERS -8 OVER giants
You know I do not like laying a lot of points but how can I not lay it here. Daniel Jones is going to play but he’s not healthy which will limit the one thing he does well. Plus doesn’t it feel like some yoga and tea might just be what Aaron Rodgers needs to relax himself to get on the same page with his young receivers. Usually London games are weird or boring. We are due for a boring one, Pack big.
Packers Win 27-9
SUNNY SIDE UP WINDOW
seahawks +5.5 over SAINTS
This game screams stay away but you know I do not stay away from any game. Geno Smith is better than Russell Wilson narrative’s are so funny right now. Geno and company shred an historically bad defense that is banged up and all of a sudden Geno Smith is the second coming of Matt Hasselbeck? Please just stop, I just do not think Andy Dalton and company can blow them out, too many pts.
Saints Win 24-20 (Seahawks Cover)
texans +7 over JAGUARS
Texans are frisky and Trevor Lawrence has never been even close to this big of a favorite as a pro. Do I think the Texans get their first win on Sunday? I do not but I think they have enough on both sides of the ball to hang with an inconsistent Jags team. I know you will be laughing when the Jags are up 21-3 in the third but you know Davis Mills is entering that backdoor so I get that last laugh, ha ha ha.
Jaguars Win 27-22 (Texans Cover)
steelers +14 over BILLS
14??? 14???? 14???!!! That is too rich for my blood. I know the Bills are really good and the Steelers are heading for their worst season since 1988 (or worse 1969) but Mike Tomlin as a two touchdown underdog (with the extra points??). I have to take Pittsburgh to at least have a pulse in this game. Plus Kenny Pickett gives them some juice, Bills pull away late but Steelers are frisky and cover.
Bills Win 27-16 (Steelers cover)
falcons +9.5 over BUCS
I like points I like I like taking the the points. My Falcons are starting to take over the most fun mediocre team to watch crown over my Lions (well I can never quit the Lions). The Falcons run the hell out of the ball and shorten the game. That seems like a good recipe for a cover on a big number. The Bucs COULD lose this game. If they do Tom might be asking Giselle if he could move back in.
Bucs Win 26-23 (Falcons Cover)
VIKINGS -7.5 OVER bears
This is not me loving Kirk Cousins this is me fading a terrible Bears team that plays football like it’s 1941. Take away the craptastic field conditions in Chicago and put this team who can’t throw in a fast track in Minnesota and see how they do not being able complete a forward pass. It’s the money window for Kirk Cousins so I’m going to trust that he takes care of business in a big way, god help me.
Vikings Win 31-10
COMMANDERS +1.5 OVER titans
I was loving Washington in this game (as does ESPN FPI) when the line was released but now I more just like them. I think a lot the experts are taking Tennessee based on recent standings but the Titans have only scored 7 second half points all season. I think that bites em in the rear here as not having Harold Landry makes the Titans defense a little more susceptible in the passing game.
Commanders win 20-16
dolphins -3.5 over JETS
I love the Dolphins in this spot. I do not even know why the line is this low. So the Jets come back from down 10 to beat Pittsburgh who didn’t have T.J Watt and Cam Heyward and Minkah Fitzpatrick got hurt in the 4th Quarter. Oh my goodness the Jets are a juggernaut. Teddy Bridgewater drop off from Tua Tagoviloa is like a 105 degree day instead of a 110 degree day, not much difference.
Dolphins Win 31-17
BROWNS +2.5 OVER chargers
Jacoby Brissett Vs Justin Herbert scares the hell out of me enough to not put the Brownies in my best bets but this is an absolute god awful matchup for the Bolts. The Brownies run the hell out of the ball and can’t stop the run (but are elite against the pass). Chargers can’t run the ball and can’t stop the run. This feels like a 31 carry for 190 yard and 2 touchdown day from Nick Chubb.. but oh Jacoby.
Browns Win 27-20
lions +3.5 over PATRIOTS
Sharps love the Pats, Cowherd loves the Pats, Simmons loves the Pats. All the guys I listen to about gambling love the Pats. I am going against everyone and taking Detroit to cover and potentially win outright. Bailey Zappe, really? We are going to lay 3.5 points against any competent team with Bailey Zappe. The Lions aren’t a good team but they sure as hell are competent, sorry guys, Lions!
Lions Win 28-24
PANTHERS +6.5 OVER 49ers
God I hate taking Carolina right now but Matt Rhule and Baker Mayfield are playing for their careers (literally) this week. That has to bring some fire out of this team. If the Panthers get boat raced the Coach will be forever a college coach and the Quarterback will forever be holding a clipboard and making coffee runs. Jimmy G’s handsomeness and Niners defense win this one late, I think
49ers win 19-17 (Panthers Cover)
CARDINALS +5.5 OVER eagles
I usually do not like to put my Cardinals in my best bets but getting 5.5 at home (even though this team is oppositzies when it comes to home/road success) against a team that still has the inferior QB/coach combo (I can’t believe I’m giving Kliff Kingsbury a coaching advantage gross) has to mean something. This is by far the toughest test the Eagles have had thus far and they fail their first test.
Cardinals Win 27-24
RAMS -5.5 OVER cowboys
A lot of the public is scratching their head at this line but I think the sharps and myself know this is the ultimate Rams get right/we all remember why Cooper Rush is a backup spot. I think Sean McVay finds in his bag of tricks that he has to trust/pray that Cam Akers can run the ball on this defense. Also an aggressive defense forces 2 maybe even 3 Cooper Rush interceptions, Kupp it up, Kupp it up.
Rams Win 27-13
RAVENS -3 OVER bengals
I was leaning Bengals at 3.5 but since the line Dropped to 3 I’ll take the Ravens (i think this game screams push). Lamar Jackson is as competitive as it gets and he is playing the team that kicked his Ravens ass twice last season and Lamar just played in my estimation the worst half of football maybe in his life. I expect a huge bounce back, but remember Burrow and company will move it too, fun fun.
Ravens Win 35-31
CHIEFS -7 OVER raiders
This is the okay give me the Chiefs line. The Chiefs are very tasty in a three team teaser with the Vikings and Packers (seriously the Chiefs are biggest threat of the three to lose) but I think last week was the get right game for the Chefs and they keep it up here. Vaders secondary is still suspect and I do not know if Derek Carr with way he’s playing can keep up in a shootout, be a fun game.
Chiefs Win 38-24
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 7-7-2
Season: 33-29-3