Hi everyone, how are we feeling after the game last night? Is everyone calmed down and caught their breath? That was an excellent football game and somehow my Chiefs minus 3 covered. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. I was pretty good overall last week. I am back up to 54 percent on the season. My dream of reaching 58 percent is a stretch but I am not giving up. Wish me luck and thank you for reading all of my material. I appreciate the opportunity to write and share my opinions on football and other sports, truly a privilege.
SATURDAY SATURDAY SATURDAY
BROWNS +3.5 OVER raiders
This line has shifted 9 points since the start of the week due to Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum, head coach Kevin Stefanski among many others being on the COVID 19 list. The Browns still have Myles Garrett, Nick Chubb and David Njoku playing in this game so not the entire team is out. The Raiders just came off a 48-9 loss to the Chiefs in which team darth vader appeared to pack it in early. NIck Mullins is getting the call for the Browns and it’s not like Nick Mullens (not to be confused with Beth Mullins) has no experience (16 career starts all over previous three seasons). I think the Browns are going to grind this one out on a cold rainy Saturday afternoon and love the number. The Brownies very possibly get that galvanizing win that could vault them into the postseason. Ask the Cards, Rams, and Packers if COVID has held their teams down (it did not). 2nd weirdest season ever (next to last season).
Browns Win 19-17
COLTS -2.5 OVER patriots
This game is not to be affected much by COVID at this time (still 36 hours from kickoff knock on wood!!). So the team I’ve been bullish on all year the Colts play against the hottest team in football in the Pats (Chiefs fans may say hold our beers). The line many is confused by since the Colts are favored but a rookie Quarterback on a stand alone game indoors against a good defense and a team that can control the clock and tempo, I think this line is more than fair. This is an enjoy the game and don’t bet a ton on it but I have to ride with the team that needs it more and that is the Colts, who are far from guaranteed a playoff spot at this point.
Colts Win 24-20
EASY LIKE A SUNDAY MORNING
wft +11.5 over EAGLES
This game sucks, just horrible. Taylor Heinicke and Brandon Allen are both on the COVID 19 list and will not play. That means that Garrett Gilbert just signed off the street is going to get the nod behind center for the Washington football team. So the line being 11.5 is not high enough right? I think it is, the Eagles are a ground and pound football team and with Jalen Hurts likely to return look for them to do just that again on Sunday. Good news for the football teams is their defense is good against the run and the defense has not been affected much by COVID 19. So I do think that Washington could muddy up this game and keep it competitive (Antonio Gibson is still playing on offense even though no Terry McLaurin is killer). We all hope that everyone is healthy first and foremost but the COVID outbreaks is really making this game (and some others as well) not very competitive on paper. Just a shame ladies and gents, just a shame.
Eagles Win 23-13 (WFT covers)
DOLPHINS -9.5 OVER jets
This is simply I believe in the Dolphins defense right now pick. They are fresh coming off a bye and the Jets are like Eminem in that one song he say at that one point and time (They just don’t give a rip). Zach Wilson play has more sloppy than a tarp covered in petroleum jelly and playing against a hyper aggressive defense that is balling right now is not a good antidote for this problem. Not going to waste my time anymore on this game, the Phins win their sixth straight and have officially played their way back into the hunt.
Dolphins win 30-13
cowboys -10.5 over GIANTS
This is so many points for a rivalry game but I just cannot take the G Unit right now. The Cowboys front is healthy and applying crazy pressure on the opposing passer (ask Taylor Heinicke about this). The Giants block as well as a jump rope fence hanging one inch off the ground (not well my friends). So you have the Cowboys ball hawking defense, Diggs, Parsons, Gregory going against Mike Glennon (or Jake Fromm) and one of the worst offensive lines in the game. Yeah I might not even need Dak Prescott to break out of his slump to cover this number, give me the Cow team.
Cowboys Win 27-13
titans over STEELERS
This game is a pick em so no need to put a line there. The Titans are still dealing with serious injuries (A.J Brown, Derrick Henry) and the Ryan Tannehill’s upper tier Quarterback stock has plummeted with the Titans offensive production (even though the Titans are 3-2 with Derrick Henry out). But the Steelers look like a team that is ready to check out on this season with one more defeat. I know that they had a great comeback last week and Big Ben was doing Big Ben things, showing his toughness, grit and ability to get lucky on 50/50 balls. But the best defensive line in football (good argument I know 49ers fans are like wait wait wait hold my beer) against an immobile Quarterback and a young offensive line seems like a winning advantage in a game like this. This is a game where the Titans defense could force turnovers and give Ryan Tannehill short fields. With the red hot 49ers and red hot Dolphins next on the Titans schedule, they know they need to win at least one of these games to keep the hard charging Colts at bay. Give me the Titans in a Paul Wall ugly up in here football game.
Titans Win 23-20
texans +4.5 over JAGUARS
I was just watching Colin Cowherds blazing five and I almost fell off my couch when he said he was taking the Jags (minus 5!!) over the Texans. Maybe the midday sports talk host doesn’t watch the news. the Jags have more distractions right now than a mom with quintuplet toddlers. Urban Meyer being shipped out of town will be a blessing in disguise but to think they will be ready to blowout the equally bad Texans when both of the Jags previous wins were by three points is a big ask. Davis Mills might get his first win or at least get close to doing so. If you gamble on this game you have problems. I have discovered I do have problems give me the points.
Texans Win 19-18
panthers +12 over BILLS
This game currently does not have a line on MGM sportsbooks but does on other sites (likely due to Josh Allen injury update even though I’m ready he is set to play). This game is a stay away to begin with as the Bills have less confidence than I did in high school. But the Bills are the better team and should still win this game regardless. Cam Newton is being made the scapegoat in Carolina by head coach Matt Rhule who I think is on his way out (even though I had defended him for weeks now). Not fair to Cam as this is a bad offensive line and Greg Olson is not walking through that door (Greg Olson was Cam’s best friend for years as most good tight ends are ask Patrick Mahomes about this). Take the points if you find this bet before the line drops.
Bills Win 24-14 (Panthers Cover)
cardinals -12.5 over LIONS
I love my Cards to bounce back this week in what likely will be the easiest blowout to pick in a while. The Redbirds are 7-0 on the road with every win being by 11 or more points and this game for the record is in Detroit. You have a Lions team that is without their best running back and tight end. None of the cats receiving corps would even be in the rotation even in four receiver sets in Arizona. In other words this is a huge mismatch and even with DeAndre Hopkins out for the year the return of running back Chase Edmonds give the birds the one two combo with James Conner that will likely control this game from the off set. Good teams bounce back off a loss and the Cards are a good team.
Cardinals Win 34-14
AFTERNOON WINDOW
falcons +9.5 over 49ERS
Good spot for the Falcons here. There is a ton of 49ers buzz and for good reason with all of the blue chippers they have but the Falcons are still lingering in this playoff hunt themselves. Some games I like to go with the value and a 7-6 team being favored by almost double digits against a 6-7 team allows me to find value in the underdog. The Falcons are an ever weird and confusing team and the metrics this season shows they are a bad football team (let’s start with the minus 108 point differential) so why would I pick them here. The Falcons have an aggressive defense that has been playing well as of late and on offense Matt Ryan is having another solid season and the birds have some recent momentum. The 49ers secondary is still really bad and the Falcons can throw it. Expect a close game the 49ers pull away late, the Niners are the better team but I love the possibility of a backdoor cover or a near upset all together here.
49ers win 30-22 (Falcons Cover)
BRONCOS -3 OVER bengals
This line keeps spiking the Broncos way after the Bengals were favored earlier in the week and why is that? The Broncos are a team that has a great young defense, they can run the football and are playing well down the stretch after a four game losing streak early in the season. The Bengals are an explosive offense that thrives on the big plays in the running and passing games. The Broncos do not give up many big plays with an outstanding secondary though and will force Joe Burrow to take the small yardage plays throughout the game which may make the former LSU Tiger impatient. This game could still go either way but usually when a line shifts four points without any huge injuries take the side that line shifts with, don’t afraid, well it’s Teddy Bridgewater as a favorite in a big game, be a little afraid.
Broncos Win 27-22
RAVENS +6.5 OVER packers
How can I take Tyler Huntley over Aaron Rodgers in a big game, what the hell is wrong with me. Well could Tyler Huntley be 85-90 percent of recent Lamar Jackson? Yes I believe he can (Lamar has struggled as of late even before injuring his ankle). There is one stat that has shocked me about the Ravens defense this season. They are number one in the entire league on third down defense (32 percent third down rate allowed). Wayne Martindale’s unit with all of the injuries has struggled this season in general (31st in yards per play allowed) but when they get into third down his unit has been fantastic which means when the opportunity arises they get off the field. This is a testament to great coaching and schematics and could I see the Ravens shortening this game and making this a low scoring game that they could certainly steal, yes I can. This is a great coaching staff and the world does not believe in Baltimore and John Harbaugh is going to preach that to his team that will inspire me while writing this. NOBODY BELIEVES IN YOU RAVENS!!! A surprisingly fun game in Baltimore that comes down to the wire and why not let’s pick the Ravens to do the unthinkable.
Ravens Win 22-21
seahawks +4 over RAMS
Sometimes in life you will catch some breaks. Sometimes it’s an employment opportunity that comes at the right time. Sometimes it’s the woman or man of your dreams popping right onto your lap. It’s about what you do when you get that break that could change your life. The Seahawks have caught an unbelievable break as they head in Los Angeles for a bigger game than most realize. The Rams have 20 players (20!!!) on the COVID 19 list. I’m shocked this line is still at four and I think it will be 3 or lower by kickoff so jump on the Hawks now. Russell Wilson has kicked off the rust and has been Russell Wilson again of the last two weeks. My pipe dream of the NFC West having all four teams make it in is alive and well if the birds win this game outright. The Hawks remaining three games is Vs Bears, Vs Lions, At Cardinals (who may be resting dudes for the playoffs) and I think 9-8 gets you in. If the Rams win this game then start the Russ one way ticket out of town talks. I love drama!!
Seahawks Win 27-24
SUNDAY NIGHT
saints +11 over BUCS
Saints head coach Sean Peyton is out with COVID so why take the Saints? The Saints have beat the Bucs in three of four meetings since Tom Brady has arrived in West Florida and Brady has not been very good in any of those four games. So the Saints have the belief they can play with the Bucs which does matter here. The five game losing streak while Alvin Kamara was out with injury proves how much Alvin Kamara means to this football team. Kamara is one of the most indispensable non Quarterbacks in all of football because the Saints offense runs through him. I am going to take it big easy here and say this game is a close game that comes down to the wire. Tom Brady finally gets the best of the Saints in a regular season game though because well Tom is God’s son, and Tommy always gets the last laugh.
MONDAY NIGHT
Bucs Win 30-26
vikings -5.5 over BEARS
This line is dumb, me picking the Vikings is dumb, Kirk Cousins is dumb, Mike Zimmer is dumb, The Mall of America is dumb, snow is dumb, ice is dumb, and some people are dumb. You know who is the dumbest one of all is me. I’m dumb for picking the Vikings in this game. I’m dumb for picking the Vikings in my best bets three times this season. I’m dumb for believing this unpredictable Vikings team could make the postseason. I’m just the dumbest, so go with the Vikings at your own peril. But it works both ways, because picking against the Vikings is also at your own peril.
Vikings Win 27-17
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 11-3
Season: 111-96-2