Hi everyone, can you believe I actually hit a Thursday night pick for a second straight day. The Vikings did go all Vikings though and make history for the biggest regular season blown lead (they were up 29-0 late in the third quarter). In other news I bounced back with a winning week and still believe I can finish the year strong, let’s go!!!
BED AND BREAKFAST WINDOW
raiders +10 over CHIEFS
This is way too many points to have a team favored by when they aren’t scoring a lot right now. The Chiefs 22 points last week is the second most points they have scored since Week 6 and 6 of those came courtesy of a dirty Dan Sorensen pick six. Patrick Mahomes has not been as bad as everyone is pegging him to be as of late but he also hasn’t been awesome by any means either (truly in the worst stretch of his excellent young career). The one game the Chiefs showed out recently was a Week 10 41-14 thumping of the Raiders at the death star on a Sunday night. So the same here right? This is the Vaders season here and they are Eva Longoria desperate housewives desperate right now. I expect the Raiders to put the kitchen sink at this game and with the exception of the first meeting this year the Raiders have played the Chiefs tough in recent seasons, this game will come down to the wire but the Chiefs will prevail in the end, the West still goes through the iron chefs.
Chiefs Win 24-17 (Raiders Cover)
saints -5.5 over JETS
The Saints have lost five in a row and their quarterback play has been Los Angeles Rams adult film star Joe Namath bad but I cannot back the Jets here. The Saints defense should win this game by themselves and Taysom Hill with a lead is a far different Quarterback then Taysom Hill trailing. The Saints still have an outside shot at the postseason if they can finish 4-1 down the stretch. The schedule is not that daunting either for the team from the Big Easy to possibly pull a Bears of last season and get randomly hot late. The right bet here feels like a Saints money line as they aren’t as bad as they have looked in recent weeks. The big X Factor here is the return of Alvin Kamara. The Saints are a different team with him in the mix. Did I forgot to say that the Jets are a bad football team, okay I’ve said enough about this horrible game.
Saints Win 27-17
jaguars +8.5 over TITANS
First off I hate this pick. The Jaguars have been an awful football team as of late and there is no reason to back them under any circumstances. However, since the Derrick Henry injury the only offense in football that has been more awful than the Titans is the Jags. So take the Titans right? Can you trust a team that would be lucky to get 300 yards of offense to win by double digits? Yeah I can’t go there either. Julio Jones is back and maybe he makes a difference here. With Julio’s recent luck he might get hurt running out of the tunnel. I would rather drink cough syrup and glue myself to the floor then watch this game. Take the points here and thank me later.
Titans Win 20-13 (Jaguars cover)
ravens +2.5 over BROWNS
Why are the Browns favored by 2.5? It’s because star corner Marlon Humphrey is out for the season right? So now the Ravens literally have no corners and are picking up guys out of the local Amazon wearhouse to play cornerback is why right? Okay, I understand but let me ask you all a very serious question. Do you trust Baker Mayfield to take advantage of the Ravens glaring weakness when he has a injured foot, injured shoulder, injured knee and injured feelings. A lot of the national media (Cowherd, Simmons, sharps) are loving the Browns here. I like the Ravens who are a mentally tough football team to grind out another win and officially bury the Browns. This has ended up being a disappointing year for team Brownies.
Ravens win 20-17
falcons +2.5 over PANTHERS
As with most Falcons games this will be a weird football game and I wouldn’t recommend with your granddaddy’s money to wager on this game but we are going to take the Falcons to win outright and here’s why. 1. The Falcons have a far better Quarterback. Cam Newton reunion has turned into what many exes who get back together result in, let’s just say it’s not peaches and rainbows my friend. 2. The Panthers coaching situation is a disaster. Matt Ruhle is rumored to be Matt out by season’s end. I think that would be a tragic mistake, he certainly deserves a third year in my opinion the Panthers have not be an abject disaster under his watch and it’s hard to win in this league with below average quarterback play. A little bit of turmoil in Carolina and even though this Falcons team is bad they still believe they could make the playoffs. Football is weird so maybe they are right. Small token on the dirty birds to get to 6-7.
Falcons Win 24-20
WFT +4.5 OVER cowboys
An en fuego Washington professional American Football team getting 4.5 at home, yes maam! Washington’s defense has been playing awesome as of late after being a massive disappointment through the first eight weeks of the season. All season long we were touting the Dallas Cowboys as the NFC East Champs and if the Lone Star’s win this game it is likely to be the case after all. But if the Cowboys lose this game (which is possible) oh boy will the national media be out for Michael McCarthy’s head. “Dan Quinn looking like a soccer dad with the backwards ball cap won a game with his defense and you lose to the Broncos, Raiders and Taylor (let’s grab a) Heinicke!!” I don’t know if Washington wins but I say for fun they do pull the upset. I just love the number here, +4.5 for a hot team at home is too zesty to pass up.
WFT Wins 27-24
seahawks +8.5 over TEXANS
Huge number for a 4-8 team on the road but let’s go over the previous David Mills starts. Lost to the Panthers by 15, lost the Bills by 40, lost to the Pats by 3 (if they played today that game might be 52-3), lost to the Colts by 28, lost to the Cardinals by 26, lost to the Rams by 16. Outside of the Panthers all those teams are better than the Hawks I know but the point is can I see Russ and company blowing out Davis Mills and company (sorry Davis heard you are a nice young man), yeah probably. The Hawks almost certainly feel like the team that is going to finish strong and just miss the playoffs. Been calling this for a few weeks now. Russell Wilson still wishes he was on Wall Street, Bourbon Street or Colfax Avenue then Pikes Place right now. But for now enjoy your fifth win Seattle.
Seahawks Win 27-10
THE JUST WAKING UP IN VEGAS WINDOW
BRONCOS -10 OVER lions
This line jumped three points in the Broncos favor and you still cannot make this line too high for me. Awesome defense against a skill position group that wouldn’t scare a baby in the dark, I have to take the team with the awesome defense. The Denver Donkeys started 3-0 this season pummeling three bad offenses who combined to score 26 points (that’s less than 9 points a game my friend). So can I see a Broncos d that made Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes look like Jay Fielder, Christian Ponder and John Skelton hold the Jared Goff in check, absol freaking lutely!!! This is my bet of the week. Lions just won their super bowl and with their best skill player still out the Lions miss their flight to Denver in a game this is more boring than a murder a paid programming telethon.
Broncos Win 24-8
CHARGERS -10 OVER giants
Taking the Chargers with this many points would give anyone night terrors but I keep reminding myself this. Mike Glennon, Mike Glennon, Mike Glennon, Mike Glennon, Mike Glennon. A bad offensive line with Mike Glennon just has me saying I cannot take the Giants here because you have to score to win or keep the game close and the Giants aren’t going to score much with this group. Better bet here would be to take Justin Herbert in company in a parlay or teaser as they will very likely win this game outright but I am going to pony up my marbles and take the Chargers to not just win one blowout, but back to back blowouts!!! The Bolts coming into a monster Thursday night against the Chiefs with some momentum. Are you excited? I sure as heck am, football is the best isn’t it!!
Chargers Win 30-17
49ers -2 over BENGALS
This is a brutal matchup for the Bengals. The 49ers defense line is awesome and the Bengals offensive line is not awesome. Joe Burrow is banged up and to not help his cause he will likely be running for his life on this late Sunday afternoon in the Queen City. Nick Bosa will be in his nightmares. Nick Bosa is the boogey man and he is coming for you, do not look under your bed there Joey B. Offensively the 49ers have had a fantastic recipe for success as well as of late. Run the hell out of the ball and do playaction and find George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and company in the middle of zones for big plays. Just a bad matchup for the Bengals here. I can see a 40-20 time of possession disparity in this game. Love the 49ers to bounce back and get a hardfought road win.
49ers Win 27-20
BUCS -3.5 OVER bills
I was hoping to get this number at 3 but 3.5 doesn’t scare me either. The Bills are a team that is reeling in a major way right now and ends up is more limited offensively then we thought. But two things that have me leaning heavily with Tampa in this game and neither actually have to do with the Bills not being able to run the ball or block defensive lineman for extended periods of time. 1. You think Aaron Rodgers owns daaaaaa Bears (more on that very very shortly), they are going to have to change Niagra Falls to Brady’s Water waves because Tom Brady is 32-3 (32-3!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) against the Bills in his career. That is ridiculous above comprehension and probably depresses three of my good friends (sorry Joe, Dale and Sean for this information I frown too). Tommy boy already has more confidence than God (he is God’s son by the way, literally), he doesn’t need an extra boost. 2. Tra’Davious White is out for the year (at worst top five corner in the game). The Pats decided to play like it was 1923 last week throwing the ball three times in the game (and still won). With the Bills a little more suspect on the back end Tom Brady will probably throw about 15 more times than that in this game and with likely high success. This season started as a romance novel for the Bills but has turned into a horror film. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick haunted Bills fans dreams in 2001 and they still are in 2021. Lamb chops you can stop singing that annoying song now please, or not.
Bucs Win 34-24
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WHY
PACKERS -12.5 OVER bears
I STILL OWN YOU!!!!! That was one of the most awesome trash talk moments we have ever seen on a football field. When someone routinely kicks your ass and then rubs your nose in it after he just kicked your ass again what can you do about it, how about nothing!!! The Packers are a good football team but their Drew rating is not very good and why is that. Well they got smoked in one of the most one sided games of the entire season in Week 1 (38-3 to the Saints) and they haven’t put even anything remotely close to that kind of smack down on a team themselves (which my rating system lies on point differential among other stats). Well here comes the long awaited smack down. The Packers are coming off a bye week. They are getting healthy (Aaron Jones returns), the Bears are about ready to quit on Matt Nagy (unfortunate but true). Blowout of the Week.
Packers Win 38-13
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL (WILD WILD WEST)
rams +2.5 over CARDINALS
Why is this line so low? The Rams lost to the Titans by 12, the 49ers by 21, and the Packers by 8 (all recently). The Cards meanwhile have only lost once while at full strength (on a fluke play when A.J Green forgot it was a pass play that was coming to him). Everyone I know is also betting heavy on Arizona in this game. I’m a cards fan as many of you know and I am nervous as hell about this game for two reasons. 1. Sean McVay is 8-1 against Arizona. I know he got his lunch handed to him by Kliff, Kyler and crew earlier this season so maybe the tides have turned. Interesting fact here, the Rams have never lost under Sean McVay’s watch when the Rams lead at halftime, not once!!! If the Rams lead at the intermission, game over. 2. With Darrell Henderson back and a still above average offensive line can I see the Rams getting physical on a weak run defense and controlling this game (something the Bears shockingly did for stretches just last week). I do see this happening and is what a smart coach like Sean McVay is going to want to establish in this game. Maybe I’m just reverse jinxing the Cards and they win by 20 and officially get the respect they deserve. But i’ll go with the Rams controlling this game and Matthew Stafford getting big plays off play action. The NFC West gets a little bit tighter.
Rams Win 31-26
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 8-6
Season: 100-93-2