Hi everyone, it was very nice to hit Thursday night’s pick. I feel very confident about the rest of the slate as well this week. I have had a tough turn over the past three weeks but still sit above .500 and I’m someone who usually always finishes the year strong. So as the hype during the bridge of many hip hop songs would go, don’t stop get it get it!!!!!
MIMOSA WINDOW
vikings -7 over LIONS
I know taking the Vikings with a touchdown when Kirk Cousins is trying to line up behind the hot dog vendor in critical moments of the game is a big ask but we are going to take the Vikings happily to continue to bury the Lions in the pit of misery (dilly dilly!!) and here’s two reasons why. 1. The Lions do not have DeAndre Swift who is literally the only player on the Cats who is a playmaker. With a batch of receivers that wouldn’t even be on fantasy teams in a 16 team league that is all you need to know about Swifts value to this offense. 2. The talent disadvantage is ridiculous, the Vikings are better at everything, plain and simple. Not afraid, it’s a 1 PM EST window, right up captain Kirk’s alley.
Vikings Win 31-17
BEARS +7.5 OVER cardinals
Andy Dalton Drew really?? Stay with me there Cowboy and I’ll explain why I’m taking the Bears to cover. 1. Is the weather, it’s going to be 40 and rainy, the Cards are a dome team that practices in the fall in 90 degree sunny weather, they will be uncomfortable. 2. Kyler Murray will be back, but to think he’s not going to come out rusty is a fool’s errand. 3. You know who I like in getting back door covers? Yes Andy Dalton!!! I think the Cards will wake up after an early slumber and pull away. But when the Bears backdoor cover you’ll thank me later. I would stay away from the line and tease Arizona in this spot. But since we pick on all of the games I’ll put a small coin on the Bears to fight for their season here (oddly still in the hunt because the bottom of the NFC is as bad as me trying to cook).
Cardinals Win 27-22 (Bears Cover)
FALCONS +10.5 OVER bucs
You know who also is not out of the playoff race? Yes your wacky and goofy Atlanta Falcons!! They are 5-6 and tied with the Football’s and Vikings for the last playoff spot in the National Football conference. Antonio Brown did another Antonio Brown thing and got suspended for three games for trying to use a fake Vaccination card (why, Antonio why??) this hiatus will extend the time Brown’s already been out due to injury. You can throw the ball on this Tampa defense and since the Falcons can’t run the ball anyways expect this game to be put in Matt Ryan’s hands. As long as Matty Ice has time to throw I think the Falcons can hang around in this game. Tom Brady isn’t losing three dumb road games this year so don’t expect that, but a division rival who needs the game more I can see Atlanta throwing the kitchen sink at this one, surprising good game that Tampa pulls out late.
Bucs Win 31-27 (Falcons Cover)
TEXANS +10 OVER colts
Drew likes points Drew likes points!! Quick question for the masses here. Tyrod Taylor has started five games this season and in the four games he finished here is the Texans margins of victory/defeat, won by 16, lost by 8, won by 9, lost by 7. That is a point differential of plus 10 my friends. If you want to include the Week 2 10 point loss to the Browns when Taylor left due to injury that’s still a 2-3 record with a 0 point differential. The Texans are a different team with Taylor behind center and their defense has been playing well as late. This is a veteran group that will fight hard and I think the Colts are going to win for sure but to think that the Colts with an average defense is going to hold Tyrod Taylor and company down the entire game is not what I see here. Expect another competitive game, take the points and thank Drew later.
Colts Win 27-20 (Texans Cover)
eagles -6.5 over JETS
This game screams a dejected Jets fan base watching their team get pulverized physically to the point of oblivion. Even in a 13-7 defeat the hand of the New Jersey Giants last week the Eagles ran for 208 yards. Do I think the Jalen Hurts can throw the ball to his team more than the other team this week? Yes I do!! I’m calling my shot here, the Eagles run for 250 yards Jalen Hurts goes 15-19 for 160 yards and the Jets see the football less a than third string Quarterback. Eagles take this game big!
Eagles Win 30-13
chargers +3 over BENGALS
This game is a fade the public and hot team play. The Chargers looked like hot tuna in the sun bad last while while the Bengals looked like the Icky Woods/Boomer Esiason 1988 rendition last week. So everyone is jumping on the Bengals bandwagon, oh Joe MIxon is going to destroy the 32nd ranked run defense, you watch Drew!! Okay, here’s my counter argument to this. When you haven’t had much success in your life and you have recent success (say with a promotion or you find a new romantic relationship that just excites you and reinvigorates you), you may lose focus on other parts of your life right? That’s what I see with the Bengals right now a young team riding high playing against a team that just got embarrassed. I like the Chargers to steal this one in what will be a fun game.
Chargers Win 30-27
DOLPHINS -6 OVER giants
I love a team that is playing awesome defensively and has found an offensive identity. Could the Dolphins who started 1-7 really make the playoffs? Yeah why not!! Everyone is saying the Pats are the best team in the AFC but what if this happens. The Pats (two Bills games and Colts in next three) are 9-7 and the Dolphins are 8-8 going into the final Weeks matchup and the winner goes into the playoffs, oh things just got real didn’t they? Brian Flores has done an hell of a job to get the Dolphins back into the hunt and they get a gift from the football gods this week in Mike Glennon, wait he’s playing for Daniel Jones? Let me just mark this pick down before I change my mind!
Dolphins Win 23-10
VODKA SODA’S WINDOW
wft +1.5 over RAIDERS
Holy Taylor Heinicke!! One of my good friends who’s a Washington fan is giving me crap about having his team ranked at 24 in my Power Rankings (the fighting football’s can’t get any respect!!). Well here is a chance to continue their journey towards getting the respect they so call deserve and give themselves a punchers chance at the division (Lots of Cowboys and Eagles left on schedule). The way the Raiders have been getting beat is by ball control and the Football’s are a team that has been punishing teams the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football recently (ask the Bucs and Seahawks defensive lineman how they felt after playing the new hogs). I think this is an awful matchup for Vegas and can see a little bit of a similar style of game that we will see in the Eagles-Jets game. At least the Raiders have a cool stadium and a cool band!!
WFT Wins 27-21
jaguars +12.5 over RAMS
This game screams stay away. What would the line have been for this game if this was playing in Week 9 when the Rams were at their peak, 18, 19? Odell Beckham and Darrell Henderson both may not play. The Rams are maybe the most top heavy team in the league and do not have the depth to withstand this many skill player losses. That being said the Jags have been so bad offensively pretty much all season long. They have only scored 20 plus three times in 11 games!!!! This is 2021 not 1976, that is some pathetic offensive production that is hard to watch in today’s game. However, with the way the Rams are playing offensively and their potential injuries I cannot take the Rams laying that many points, they should most certainly win this game though. If they don’t it’s officially a full scale panic ensuing in the city of Angels.
Rams Win 27-17 (Jaguars Cover)
STEELERS +4.5 OVER ravens
Desperate Steelers team getting 4.5 after getting humiliated by a team they had previously dominated for three decades, yes please. The reason why the Steelers are the heavy play here is for three reason. 1. This is the Steelers season. If they lose this game go ahead and say it Jiggsaw, game over!!! 2. The culture is still a winning culture. Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season. You think they are planning on starting now. This correlates with the desperation of reason #1. 3. The Ravens offense is struggling. Lamar Jackson has struggled against the blitz recently and expect the Burgh to exploit that. All this being said I believe the end result of this game is us saying Justin Tucker happens and the Ravens walk off with a Tucker field goal and this current Steelers run comes to a close. But 4.5 is too rich for my blood, Pitt is the side.
Ravens Win 23-20 (Steelers Cover)
SEAHAWKS +3.5 OVER 49ers
Stay away, stay away, stay away!! I liked the 49ers here before I found out the news that Fred Werner and Deebo Samuel will be out for this game. So the heart and soul of the offense and defense is out for the 49ers, no thank you. What makes me not want to take the Seahawks either is have you seen the Seahawks play football recently. Russell Wilson wants to be in Seattle like I want to be at the DMV on a Saturday morning for four hours. I think the Seahawks to play for pride because I was impressed with how they did not quit at Washington last week when they had every reason to.
Seahawks Win 20-19
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
CHIEFS -9.5 OVER broncos
The Broncos are the sharp play here but the experience and rest Kansas City has me taking the two time AFC Champs even with the big number. Let’s not forget that the Broncos are a young team that has not been in a big spot like this before and could come out tense. This game got flexed into Sunday night (was initially the 49ers Seahawks ouch Russ!) and was done before we saw the Broncos demolish the Chargers last week (good call NFL). The Broncos defense is playing great right but the points the Chiefs have allowed during their four game winning streak is 17, 7, 14 and 9. Chris Jones has been unblockable and the Broncos in the middle of the offensive line is not very good. Plus Travis Kelce still exist and the bye week helped him get healthy. I’ll take the 9.5, Chiefs take a little bit more control of the AFC West.
Chiefs Win 27-13
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
BILLS -2.5 OVER patriots
Patriots are playing so awesome laying the rest of the AFC to waste what the hell are you doing Drew??? Well let me see, the Bills are averaging an NFL Best 4.5 yards per play allowed, it’s going to be a blizzard which favors defense, Mac Jones is still a rookie, the Bills defensive line is awesome and will bring discomfort to Mac Jones, and Sean McDermott knows the Pats do not have over the top weapons, expect the Bills to play very aggressive in their base nickle packages. Josh Allen and the Bills offense does concern me a bit but I think the Bills defense is going to dominate this game to the point that JA just needs to make a couple of plays with his arm and legs to give Buffalo the advantage (the offense didn’t play great at New Orleans last week and still won 31-6). I think Josh Allen plays well enough to compliment the defense the Bills take control of the AFC East with a huge home win.
Bills Win 24-17
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 5-10
Season: 92-87-2