Hi everyone, I have fallen into a rut and am still over .500 for the season but will have to have an amazing stretch run to finish at where I want to. But there still is time but my picks did not have an Happy Thanksgiving. The Bears won but somehow didn’t cover. The Raiders decided they weren’t ready for offseason vacation and I need to officially learn my lesson on picking Trevor Siemian to cover/win football games. We are going to have some fun and make some picks, so enjoy the picks!!
BRUNCH WINDOW
PATRIOTS -7 OVER titans
I was reading that the sharps love Tennessee and for good reason, good team off a bad loss against a team that is due for a letdown. But here is the total yardage output of their three games since Derrick Henry has been injured, 194, 264 and 420 with 5 turnovers. In other words the offense has been really really bad for the Titans, in this same three game stretch the Patriots have given up 13 points total and 207 yards per game. In other words the Titans offense has been really bad and the Pats defense has been really good. I believe in this Patriots team to take care of business against teams that are vulnerable in key areas and I do not see a bounce back from Ryan Tannehill here, Pats bigly.
Patriots Win 23-10
jets +2.5 over TEXANS
Jets have been really really bad and the Texans just came off a big time road win. Why are we taking the Jets in this spot? Because the Texans did not find an offensive cure last week (averaging only 3.1 yards per play) but got 5 Titans turnovers and still almost allowed the Titans to steal the game late. Plus the return of Zach Wilson could very possibly give an underrated offensive unit a big boost. This is a dog game and honestly a stay away but I’m fading the team that just got the big win and going with the team that is more explosive offensively, I like the Jets to pick up their third win.
Jets Win 24-22
GIANTS +3.5 OVER eagles
Freddie Kitchen bump!!! The Eagles just received a big win last week over the Saints that has put the birds in great position not just for the playoffs, but the division is not out of reach as well thanks to the Cowboys losing two home games as huge favorites to AFC West teams that appeared to be fading before the game. I still like the Giants defensive front and the big question here will be is can the Giants front seven slow down the Eagles read option/ground and pound attack to hang in this game. I think they can, and also do not discount the change at offensive coordinator for the G Men. We always see some new wrinkles that the opponent does not have any tape of, I don’t know if the Giants win but I like the hook here as this game comes down to the wire.
Giants Win 23-20
COLTS +3 OVER bucs
I believe in the Colts and I am going to keep on riding the Colts as long as they keep being underdogs. The Bills have an awesome run defense, Jonathan Taylor didn’t care, the 49ers have a fantastic defensive front, Jonathan Taylor didn’t care. This is strength against strength and what do you do when you have the unstoppable force against the immovable object. Look at other areas of the game that will make the difference then (I just wanted to go on a synopsis about how awesome Jonathan Taylor is. How about the Colts NFL best turnover differential of plus 15. But Drew Carson Wentz is so sloppy with the football, Carson Wentz has had three interceptions… total for the season in 11 games! It’s a tired subject at this point and the change of scenery has made the difference here for sure for the QB from North Dakota State. Tom Brady has had five interceptions in the past three games. Hard to wager against Tom Brady but the Bucs have lost their past two road games to far inferior opponents, take the plus three and don’t look back!
Colts Win 30-27
falcons -2 over JAGUARS
It breaks my heart to pick Atlanta who is just optically (-110 point differential) a terrible football team. However, the Jags are an even more terrible football team. In the four games since their bye week the Jags have scored 43 points in four games. That was bad in the 1970’s lack of forward pass NFL. In today’s NFL that average of 10.8 points per game would be one of the worst outputs of the 21st Century for an entire season. 4 games is not a small sample size either. Trevor Lawrence needs help but is not getting it in 2021. I know the Falcons have scored 3 points in two games themselves but this is a game Matt Ryan usually plays well in, dirty birds take it.
Falcons Win 27-17
DOLPHINS +2 OVER panthers
Dolphins are a hot football team and I am going to take the hot team being a home dog. I think this line should be Dolphins minus two so I think we are getting some free points here so let’s take it. Or simply just look at the film of the Ravens game two Thursday’s ago and rinse and repeat with Cam Newton what Brian Flores unit did to Lamar Jackson. Get the Panthers in third and long and zero blitz and tackle the receiver who catches the pass short of the sticks. This will be a low scoring game, I also like what I’m seeing from Tua last two weeks. He is gaining confidence and will continue his good play here, Phins win their fourth straight.
Dolphins Win 20-16
steelers +3.5 over BENGALS
I am far from a Steelers fan (the burgh beat my home state team in Super Bowl for crying out loud) but we keep getting tons of value with a public team which is rare. The Bengals should be favored but giving the Steelers more than a field goal in Cincinnati is a big mistake by Vegas. You know who owns Paul Brown Stadium? How about Ben Roethlisberger who’s an astounding 13-3 there in his career. Those five straight years the Bengals made the Playoffs Big Ben was 5-1 at Cincinnati. Plus T.J Watt returns for this game and remember that the Bengals are still not very proficient at pass protection and Joe Burrow’s bug a boo is his pocket sometimes is still very novice. Again another week I love the Steelers as a road dog.
Steelers Win 26-20
LUNCH WINDOW
chargers -2.5 over BRONCOS
I liked this pick earlier in the week more than now, I do think there is a scenario where Melvin Gordon and JaVonte Williams haunts the 47 Bolts fans in America’s dream but I am going to the take the Chargers to win and here is why. I think the Chargers discovered last week that they need balance to win football games and I see this formula working here (26 carries last week which is high for a pass happy team like the Bolts). Plus Justin Herbert is light years better than Teddy Bridgewater and QB makes a huge difference in football. This is certainly the ultimate well know who is going to win this game early by who controls the ball and tempo. I’m going with the Chargers here to control the flow of this game. Plus I still think the Teddy Bridgewater bail out in the pivotal play of the 30-13 loss to the Eagles two weeks ago still resonates with that locker room and was the turning point of what could be a late season fade in Denver. George Paton get Aaron Rodgers agent on the phone!!
Chargers Win 27-17
vikings +3 over 49ERS
It also makes me nervous picking the Vikings and watch once I give in they put up their inevitable stinker but I think this is a good spot for team Horn Helmets to continue their playoff surge. Kirk Cousins has been fantastic at protecting the football this season (only 2 interceptions best in football amongst qualified starters) and the defense can rush the passer (31 sacks was first in league before yesterday). The 49ers sans a Monday night game against the Rams haven’t been taking away the football and the Vikings will get pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo who can be loose with the football when under pressure. This game screams the Vikings controlling the tempo throughout this game. I would say as I would with most Vikings games stay away, but if you do pick a side go with Minnesota.
Vikings Win 28-24
rams -1 over PACKERS
The Rams are favored in Green Bay and I’m going to pick them what in the hell is wrong with me!!! Well the weather will be 30 which is cold but not to the point that I think it will affect the Rams enough to favor the Packers heavily. The Packers have a ton of major injuries (Aaron Jones, Za’Darius Smith, Jaire Alexander, David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins), I named five of the best 8 Packers players who will not be playing on Sunday. This is why the Rams are favored is the injuries (the Rams don’t have Robert Woods otherwise are primarily healthy). Matthew Stafford has actually not been terrible against the Packers (7-13 but with far inferior teams almost every time they met). Plus the Rams defense has not been terrible either recently even though the scores may speak otherwise (stop throwing pick sixes Matthew!). In other words I like L.A to bounce back and this line is correct even though you know the public will back Aaron Rodgers over a team that has been blown out two games.
Rams Win 27-24
WAITING ALL DAY FOR A SUNDAY NIGHT!!
browns +3.5 over RAVENS
Kevin Stefanski, your Quarterback is jabbing with the fans and media again. Your team got embarrassed by the Pats and then even more embarrassed in a wet sloppy game at home against a winless team starting a Quarterback named Tim Boyle (Browns won though which is what mattered!). This spot for coach Stefanski is on the same realm as what Mike Vrabel had three weeks ago when the Titans came into L.A and smoked the flavor of the league at the time (L.A Rams). CLEVELAND BROWNS NOBODY BELIEVES IN YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That’s something that has been true for a long time but this Browns team has more talent than a shell of what the Ravens were at the beginning of the year. The fact that the Ravens are 7-3 right now speaks to the brilliance of Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh and not to the talent level of this football team. I love Cleveland in this spot and I think the money line is zesty, but remember it’s the Browns in a big spot so buyer beware but take the 3.5 without hesitation.
Browns Win 27-26
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL YUCK!
seahawks +1 over WFT
Doesn’t this game feel like the public is going to take the Football team here in spades. The narrative is there, the fighting football’s have won two in a row (beating Tom Brady and Ron Rivera old team and Quarterback, they’re hot!!) and the Seahawks just had their desperate attempt at saving their season get burned by Colt freaking McCoy. But I see this as Russell Wilson is slowing getting himself back into football shape and is due for a big day. Pete Carroll knows that his long tenure as the Hawks head coach could be in jeopardy if the Hawks fade to a 5-12, 6-11 finish. The Seahawks are not going to go 6-1 down the stretch to make the playoffs (well not likely) but I do think with a soft upcoming schedule the Birds could be that team gets to 8-9 and builds some confidence going into the offseason and maybe not blow things up quite yet. I’m still not buying that the football’s have a good defense (still giving up 53 percent on third down). This feels like a get right game for the Hawks who are not a good football team but certainly are not in the class of the worst five or probably even ten teams in the league. Russ and Pete are happy again for a least on Monday evening.
Seahawks Win 31-24
This Week: 0-3
Last Week: 6-9
Season: 86-80-3