Hi everyone, hope everyone is having a wonderful week. I had a brutal week last week. This will happen from time to time to everyone, just the facts of life. Even with the bad week I am at 54 percent on the year and still in position to get hot down the stretch. I almost had Josh Johnson massacre my start to this week but thankfully a red zone pick ended that sudden five minutes of horror I was suffering on the couch. There is a lot of games I love this week, I’m excited because I feel a bounce back. Believe in the Drew it will take you places!!
1 PM ET WINDOW
texans +5.5 over DOLPHINS
My apologies to the Davis Mills family. I did not mean any harm but the facts are the fact. If you take away two 22 points halves (last one when down 38-0 against a prevent defense) David Mills in his other 20 Quarters of action scored 17 points total. In a league where Josh Johnson is coming in off the parking lot and throwing for 300 yards and 3 TD’s that is bad. Tyrod Taylor is like a jump from a center fielder pitching to a solid relief pitcher. Tyrod Taylor is not Aaron Rodgers (oh oh we cannot mention Rodgers in a positive light today!), but he’s a very competent Quarterback. I do not know who’s going to win this game and who cares but I’ll take a 5.5 point buffer.
Dolphins Win 24-21 (Texans Cover)
broncos +10 over COWBOYS
Love the Broncos is this spot. The Cowboys just had a huge road win with Cooper Rush (street) at the helm. Meanwhile, the Broncos just traded longtime franchise staple Von Miller away. This is a game where many of the public is going to say Cowboys in a blowout and not think twice. But the Broncos have a fantastic secondary and can slow down the vaunted Cowboys passing attack. Plus Dak hasn’t played in three weeks, could there be some rust (I think so). Plus we have Teddy backdoor covers. You know Teddy can be down 14 and checkdown his way to a backdoor cover right! Just go with it, do not ask questions!
Cowboys win 27-20 (Broncos Cover)
vikings +6 over RAVENS
This is the spot where you want the Vikings. They are a six point underdog and the world is throwing dirt on them. Here is the case for the Vikings here. They can move the ball on offense (well when not on Sunday night football). A banged up Ravens secondary against the likes of Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen is a huge advantage for the horns. Plus their defensive line is good and can disrupt the Ravens dynamic running attack. Don’t get me wrong the Vikings are going to blow this game like they always do, but I have six points to work with and I feel good about that number.
Ravens Win 30-27 (Vikings Cover)
patriots -3.5 over PANTHERS
The hook does concern me and Christian McCaffrey returning for the Carolina kitties concerns me even more but I am going to simply take the Pats and here’s why. Sam Darnold status is up in the air as he suffered a concussion in Sunday’s victory against the Falcons. No matter who starts for the Panthers it’s Bill Belichick against either an inexperienced P.J Walker or Sam Darnold who sees Casper on the field when he plays against a Billy B defense. Give me the Pats and don’t look back.
Patriots Win 24-17
JAGUARS +14.5 OVER bills
But Drew the Bills have been covering these big spreads all season. They even covered last week by going plus 15 in a game that they were tied at the half. I know all these things are true and I am going to take Trevor Lawrence and the not so cardiac cats to cover this huge number. I got a question for all of the Bills fans out there. What would inspire the Bills to get up for this game? Is it the were professionals and it’s out job. So you work in an office (say insurance sales why not good example) and you get up and go to work because because your a professional. Are you inspired by this? Do you go running through a glass cage of emotion? I thought so. This is a parlay and tease the Bills game but stay away from the ginormous number.
Bills win 30-17 (Jags Cover)
browns +2.5 over BENGALS
Let’s throw some dirt on the Brownies this morning. The Odell Beckham and Baker Mayfield marriage should have been a reality TV show. Because they were so fake nice to each other it made me sick to my stomach. Now since Odell Beckham has moved on this is supposed to hurt the Browns? I think this is a huge relief for team dawg pound. Plus the world is forgetting one huge nugget about this game. When Baker Mayfield sees the black stripes with the orange helmet on the other side of the field he morphs from an overrated average Quarterback into some Drew Brees doppelganger supernova. Give me the Browns to save their season.
Browns Win 31-27
GIANTS +3 OVER raiders
Henry Ruggs III by all accounts is a good young man who made a very poor choice. He is going to pay for his poor choice by going to jail for a long period of time. By his poor choice some young 23 year old woman who was just in the wrong place at the wrong time life was cut far too short. What I do not like from much of the public is how we are suppose to bash Henry Ruggs to hell and not have some understanding that he screwed up and he has to live with the guilt and sorrow of this for the rest of his life. Derek Carr is right that we must have love for one another and just because you have love does not mean that a person should not suffer consequences for a poor choice. For this game, I love the Giants plus 3. They metrically are one of the best 2-6 teams of all time (know not saying much but should be more of a .500 team) and the damn is about to break here in Vegas. Derek Carr may be the best team leader in the history of sports if they rally to win this game and even just make the playoffs. I just don’t see it, hard to look past all of this turmoil, human nature.
Giants Win 27-17
SAINTS -6.5 OVER falcons
Taysom Hill at home with a big number you would think I’m taking Atlanta but I cannot go there. You cannot run on the Saints, just don’t even try. Secondly, the Saints dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. What does this mean? That Matt Ryan is going to sitting on the sidelinew as Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill are just running the ball up and down the field on the Falcons front all day. The number scares me a little bit but the Falcons only scored 25 points in two games against the Saints last season and I can see about that average coming into effect again, let’s pick a funny score because it is Falcons and Saints.
Saints Win 22-12
2 PM MT WINDOW
chargers -1.5 over EAGLES
One thing does concern me greatly about this game, the trenches. The Eagles can block and disrupt teams up front and the Chargers are great everywhere except on the lines. However, Justin Herbert has for the first time in his career hit a little bit of a speed bump and I cannot see him having three bad games in a row. He is just too damn good. Plus, the Eagles for how great them are in the trenches have been bad against any decent team this year. How under any circumstances can I take the Eagles to cover when the game is pretty much a pick em, give me the Bolts to bounce back.
Chargers Win 27-21
packers +7 over CHIEFS
Aaron Rodgers said he was immunized, like with what? The Measles or Shingles vaccine? What did he meet a witch doctor that give him a secret potion that would cure him from any disease in the world? I am not ever going to tell anyone what to do in regards to getting the vaccine it is not my place but why would you lie about it? It makes you look like a narcissistic jerk. For the game itself, the Chiefs have no proved to anyone that they can blow out anyone decent and what last Thursday in Arizona proved is that Matt LaFleur can coach a little bit. I have no doubt even with an unproven Jordan Love that this game will be close.
Chiefs Win 27-24 (Packers Cover)
cards +1.5 over 49ERS
It is sounding like Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are going to go. Kyler has a bum ankle but has only rushed for 156 yards on the season. In other words he is not running much this season so if he plays has already proved this year he can win from the pocket. I am a Cards fan who many of you know at this point. However, I have been very realistic and accurate about how they will play this year (Rams game the exception). Even with George Kittle returning the 49ers are a vastly overrated team and has been all year (how were they favored by 4.5 over the Colts!). I will take a Cards team that is getting healthy as well to bounce back (will have their full offensive line back this week). 49ers are two home losses against top division opponents away from Trey Lance coming in.
Cardinals Win 31-24
AWESOME SUNDAY NIGHTER IN SO CAL
titans +7 over RAMS
A little bit of an overreaction line wouldn’t you say. If this game is last week what is the line Rams by 4? But a Derrick Henry injury and Von Miller acquisition vaulted this line up to a full touchdown. I am not a professional football player but if I was and Mike Vrabel was my head coach this is how I could see the pregame speech going from a big man who demands and receives a ton of respect and admiration from his team. “Team we are in Hollywood, there is going to be a ton of celebrities out there. The Rams are this glamorous team that has all these stars and speed. They are a sports car and we are considered by the pundits to be a beat up pick up truck. We lost D Henry, we are banged up on the back end. Everyone is expecting us to lay down the red carpet for the Rams who everyone is picking to win the Super Bowl. NOBODY BELIEVES IN YOU!! You know what though, I BELIEVE IN YOU!! YOU BELIEVE IN EACH OTHER, WE ARE THE TENNESSEE TITANS, WHY NOT US!! WE ARE GOING TO WIN THIS F******* GAME!!! LET’S GO OUT THERE AND SHOCK THE WORLD!!!” I’m ready to run through a brick wall for Mike Vrabel right now even though was a fake speech but I guaran freaking tee you his pregame speech is going to be something just like that. I think this game is going to be awesome and the Titans are going to give the Rams a hell of a test, I love the Titans plus 7.
Rams Win 30-27 (Titans Cover)
STEELERS -6.5 OVER bears
Okay, I will make this short and sweet why a team with a Quarterback that I move better than and a team that averages 19 points a game is my play of the week even though they are almost laying a full seven points. How are the Bears going to score in this game? The Bears are on their third string running back and a rookie Quarterback and are averaging 4.7 yards a play (by far worst in football) and the Steelers have an awesome defense led by T.J Watt. How are the Bears even scoring ten points in this game? Usually in today’s football punts are bad but I wouldn’t blame Mike Tomlin to play conservative in this game, Tomlin is a smart man. I cannot believe this dull Steelers team is likely to be 5-3 but it’s the world we live in!
Steelers Win 21-6
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 5-10
Season: 65-56-2