Hi everyone, we had a huge bounce back going 10-3 in Week 7. Could have been 11-2 but the New Orleans Saints could not quite cover the number on Monday night. We are still extremely excited about this slate and even though Thursday did not work out, still feeling a winning week in stow, let’s get to it.
EGGS WINDOW
dolphins +14 over BILLS
Been hearing it all week from my good friend Arizona Joe about how the Bills might win this game by 40 points. There is a chance he may be correct but in the three full games that Tua Tagovailoa has played (we are taking out the first Quarter injury in the first game these two teams met), the Dolphins are 1-2 with a minus four point differential. In reality the Phins have been very competitive in games that the Hawaiian from Tuscaloosa has started. I know that Tuscaloosa is not in Hawaii but just go with it. The Bills will win but I can see Miami getting a back door cover. This is just too many points for a Dolphins team that has been playing better as of late.
Bills Win 30-20 (Dolphins Cover)
FALCONS -3 OVER panthers
This game is a clear stay away (We must remember that it’s the Falcons we are dealing with). However, if I have to make a choice (remember Drew picks on all of the games ladies and gents) I will take the Falcons minus 3. Matt Ryan has been solid again thus far in 2021 with 12-4 TD/INT ratio and a 96.4 passer rating. Kyle Pitts had a coming out party last week and it appears that Arthur Smith has been able to figured out how to utilize the freak talent from Florida. Plus Sam Darnold’s passer rating of just above 50 the past few weeks I cannot look past when handicapping this game. The Panthers are fading fast and we must keep betting against them until proven otherwise.
Falcons Win 28-23
LIONS +3.5 OVER eagles
For the second straight week I am picking Jared Goff, Dan Campbell and the Detroit Lions as one of my best bets!! I was joking with a good friend of mine about which Quarterbacks I’m taking in my best bets this week. It is pretty funny but I am a man that looks at numbers and data and this line does not make any sense to me, is it a trap? The Lions have been in every game this season and probably should be 2-5 if it wasn’t for kickers kicking the ball to other continents at the end of two of the Lions defeats. The Lions play harder than I did in little league (I played my butt off even though I was just not very good, just like the Lions!!!). Eagles are fading, this is a great spot for mo town to get that first W of the year. No undefeated or winless teams to speak of anymore.
Lions Win 24-20
COLTS -2.5 OVER titans
This line has shifted from Titans minus one to Colts minus 2.5 and I still love the Colts in this spot. One thing I love about the NFL is the constant urgency and desperation that teams and organizations have on not just a weekly basis but a daily basis. Every Tuesday there are tryouts for spots of the roster across the league. The large portion of players on a roster (I would say about 35-40 percent) have to fight every week just to keep their spot by gameday. This creates massive urgency and desperation not to mention an only 17 game season (was 16 before this year). The Colts are by far the more desperate team here. The Titans have just had two huge signature home wins over the Bills and Chiefs and have already beat the Colts head to head. If the Horseshoes lose this game even with a favorable schedule remaining the division is done and the playoffs are on life support. Give me the more desperate team to win and cover and the public/sharps are with me on this one. I usually like to go the other way but cannot here, the AFC South is still a race.
Colts Win 27-20
rams -15.5 over TEXANS
No disrespect to Davis Mills who seems to be a very nice young man and an upstanding citizen but the facts are the facts. He is not an NFL starting Quarterback. The Texans offense since the third round pick from Stanford has taken over has looked like an offense that came out of the stone age. The Texans are the Beavis and Butthead of football in their propensity of trying to score but never succeeding on that conquest. While on the other side you have a Rams team that gets more big plays than any team outside of Dallas and are very good at extending leads and not letting the opposition back into the game. You cannot make this line too high for me to not go with the team from Inglewood here. Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford will be sending smiley face emojis to each other postgame, Rams bigly.
Rams Win 34-10
JETS +10.5 OVER bengals
A lot of the public loves the Bengals to win big in New Jersey on Sunday. Why wouldn’t they, I mean we have our favorite tax accountant/everyday man turned NFL QB Mike White as the starting Quarterback for the Jets. In fact let’s get to know Michael White. White is from Fort Lauderdale Florida. He was regarded as a non prospect out of high school. He went to South Florida university but struggled his freshman and sophomore years and would eventually transfer to Western Kentucky where the Hilltoppers signal caller would have an outstanding two years (63 Touchdowns to 15 interceptions). White would get drafted in the 5th round by the Dallas Cowboys before being waved after the 2019 preseason. White would eventually get signed to the Jets practice squad a month later. Was great to get to know about the history of Michael White. For the game the Bengals one weakness is the Jets strength (d line Vs o lIne) and I think Joe Burrow will get roughed up a bit in a game that ends up being closer than many are pegging. Do I think our new friend Mike White can pull off an upset, no but I do believe twitter will gawk over him at time for a QB who is a surprisingly good arm talent, but the Queen City Cats will survive at the end of the day
Bengals Win 24-17 (Jets Cover)
steelers +3.5 over BROWNS
A banged up Baker Mayfield against a ferocious Steelers defensive front and the Burgh is getting more than a field goal? Yes maam! The concerning part for many is that the Steelers offense is about as unexplosive and boring as watching curling on a Tuesday morning. However, the Steelers defense is still one of the best in the business. They are well rested coming off a bye week, and you know how good coaches are after byes. Mike Tomlin is still one hell of a football coach, just don’t ask him anymore questions about college jobs, otherwise you get the angry dad talk!
Steelers Win 23-20
BEARS +4 OVER 49ers
Do I feel confident in the Bears plus four? I sure don’t, how could you, have you watched the Bears play offense. It’s a cold January day in the Windy City sad. However, I have been arguing this all season long thus far. The 49ers are 1-4-1 against the spread so far this year and there is one main reason why this is the case here. Vegas is overvaluing a team that has an overrated coach and an overrated roster. It’s like a bunch of 25 year old Bears fans talking about the good old days of 1985 when they were born in 1995. Anyways, sorry for the puns there Bears fans. I’m still picking your team to cover and possibly win. If the Bears win it’s sir Trey Lance a lot time, which I’m looking forward to because his ability is intriguing.
Bears win 19-17
WINGS WINDOW
SEAHAWKS -3 OVER jaguars
Wait the Jaguars win their first game in over a year and their following game they are only a field goal dog in Seattle? What am I missing here. I know that the Hawks have Geno Smith at Quarterback, I know the Hawks have a bad defense, I know the Hawks have an average offensive line, I know that Pete Carroll is a little overrated (still a good coach). But still the Hawks NEED THIS GAME more than I need sleep after a night on the town (may need more today speaking of it). I think we could all agree that to be kind Urban Meyer is learning the pro game as well. I love the Hawks here who metrically is far superior to the Jags and Seven games is plenty of data to prove that.
Seahawks Win 27-17
CHARGERS -4.5 OVER patriots
The sharps love the Pats and I often will take the sharps advice and go with the data they have to get an edge on a line. However, in this spot I like a team that is well rested, has a more explosive offense and a far better Quarterback. Plus let’s remember everyone that the Chargers got bum rushed 34-6 in Baltimore right before the bye week. Justin Herbert and company have been having to stew over this for two weeks now. Plus there is one cardinal rule I have used in handicapping games over the years. Take a good team the following week after a bad performance. I believe the Chargers are a good football team. It scares me to go against Bill Belichick but I am going fight the gale force wind here and go with the home team (at least on paper they are the home team??).
Chargers Win 31-23
wft +3.5 over BRONCOS
I was leaning Broncos all week here. I still think Denver will win outright but when the line went up to 3.5 I just could not pull the trigger on the Mile High Horses to cover this number. First off I’m surprised that Vic Fangio is still the coach. The first half performance in Cleveland last Thursday was one of the more pathetic displays of football I have seen from a team all season. However, the Broncos fought back and was able to give themselves a chance win the game in Northern Ohio but the defense could not get off the field late. On the other side we have the team from out nation’s capital which has looked every bit as bad as the 2-5 record would state. They have a reputation of having a good pass rush but if they have a good pass rush why don’t they rush the passer well? This game is a hard stay away, but when you have 3.5 to play with take the dog and pray.
Broncos win 24-21 (WFT covers)
SAINTS +4 OVER bucs
We have three games in 2020 as proof that Tom Brady gets punked by the Saints ferocious defensive front. I usually do not recommend the over/under on these games because wonky things happen every game to effect a total score but how can you not take the under in this game? The Saints defense has been awesome in 11 of 12 halves this year (the second half/overtime of the Week 4 Giants game being the lone exception). The 38-3 butt whipping of the since undefeated Packers in Week 1 looks even more awesome than a can of Cheese Whiz on a Ritz cracker right now. I will state my concern why I like but not love New Orleans. We are picking Jameis Winston over Tom Brady and knowing that we are doing this. However, the Super Dome crowd is going to be going bananas like a Gwen Stafani music video on Sunday. I think home field matters when it comes to the Saints. I think that Tampa will win but this game feels like a field goal game to me. So I will take the Quatro and enjoy a good late window game in the Big Easy.
Bucs Win 20-17 (Saints Cover)
COOPER RUSH AND KIRK COUSINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT YAY!
VIKINGS -3 OVER cowboys
I know that I am knowingly taking Kirk Cousins on a primetime game. I know that I am picking the most unpredictable, infuriating team to win by more than three over the 5-1 Dallas Cowboys. But let me finish, let me finish, okay I’m finished… Here it is in a nutshell. The Lone Stars are starting an injured Dak Prescott or Cooper Rush (not the band) at QB for this game. That is not a recipe for success against the team with the highest sack rate in football. Plus Kirk Cousins last big Sunday night win was over the Cowboys. He can do it again right, I think, I don’t know just go with it!!!
Vikings Win 31-20
MONDAY NIGHT IN ARROWHEAD
CHIEFS -10 OVER giants
I am 2 for 2 in picking the Chiefs to win big in must win games over NFC East teams so let’s make it a perfect 3 for 3 why don’t we!! I am going to tell you a story about greatness. Greatness is not linear, greatness does not come without hardships and struggle. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid is great. The Chiefs have in the first 52 regular season starts for Patrick Mahomes scored under 20 points twice (a 19-13 loss to Indy in 2019 and a 17-14 win over the Falcons in 2020). Yet last week the Chiefs scored 3 points in Tennessee against a Titans defense that is not going to get confused with the 2000 Ravens anytime soon. The Chiefs are 3-4 and being doubted about how great they once were. Sammy Watkins is in Baltimore and hurt again and many pundits are saying since teams are bracketing Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce that Mahomes has no answers due to lack of receiving talent. The defense is one of the worst in the league. Mahomes is being called the penguin because of his happy feet. It is nothing but doom and gloom in the land of BBQ. However, when the chips are down, I revert back to the fact that I believe greatness will find a way, greatness will prevail. Do you believe like I do? Does the Chiefs believe in themselves still? This is a fork in the road in their journey. What will happen next? We will find out if the road to redemption starts on Monday or if the Chiefs are the newest NFL has been. God I love football!!
Chiefs win 38-17
This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 10-3
Season: 59-47-2