Hi everyone, we are off to a good start this Week as I accurately predicted that Case Keenum would beat the Denver Broncos. I had a rare down week last week but am still at 54 percent for the Season (goal is 60 but we still have time!!). So time to get back on track, you want to join the hot hand hop on board!!
EARLY WINDOW
RAVENS -6.5 OVER bengals
This is a game that many of the public pundits love Cincy in and I understand why. The Bengals have lost both of their games by only three points. The defense has been extremely stingy all season (5.2 yards per play against one of best in football). Joe Burrow looks to be an upper tier Quarterback (2 plus touchdowns every game). Here is why I am taking Baltimore in this spot. This is a big brother against a little brother game. The big brother has bullied the little brother for years. The big brother sees the little brother coming around the block with a chip on his should ready to prove his worth. Big brother knows he cannot take his little brother lightly in this spot and wants to bury said little bro. Look for the Ravens to play some bully ball with Patrick Ricard being a big factor in the running and short passing game. Big brother prevails again, Lamar is too hot to go against.
Ravens Win 30-16
GIANTS +3 OVER panthers
This is a rare Week that I dare say I love the Giants. Here is the deal with the G Men, they still respect and play hard for Joe Judge. They have been boat raced two weeks in a row by two of the best teams in football (Cowboys, Rams). Daniel Jones now has to play with some desperation as the sand in the hourglass is leaking dangerously towards the bottom for Danny Dimes. The biggest nugget for the Giants side is Sam Darnold has been brutal recently, you think one 98 yard drive is going to make me adjust my eyes for the brutally awful last 8 Quarters (or 3 and a half years) I’ve seen from the former Trojan Man you are sorely mistaken. Jones plays a great game and at least for a Week talks of drafting a new Quarterback subside in the Big Apple.
Giants win 24-19
PACKERS -8 OVER wft
Taking this Packers team on a big number is a scary proposition but if you look at the WFT metrics it all shows that they are a brutally awful football team. What was a vaunted defense last season here are some of their defensive stats this season, 31 points allowed per game, 58 percent allowed on third down, 6.1 yards per play allowed, 12 sacks (on pace for an average 34 for season), 431 yards allowed per game. In other words the WFT defense has been putrid. The Pack are also starting to improve health wise, Aaron Rodgers is playing with a chip on his shoulder. Why own Chicago Aaron when you can own America, Pack roll.
Packers win 38-17
TITANS +4.5 OVER chiefs
Misses Drew Sports is from Kansas City and is a die hard Chiefs fan, she is cautiously optimistic about the Chiefs turning around their season and going on a second half run as their schedule becomes very favorable. However, for this particular game she is terrified of a 6’3 247 pound man by the name of Derrick Henry. Derrick Henry is on an historic run (725 yards rushing in the past 5 games) and this Chiefs team is absolutely abysmal at stopping the run. This simply put is a brutal matchup for the Chiefs defense. That being said a Titans secondary that wasn’t great to begin with has more players injured then a bunch of Drew clones after working a shift in a restaurant kitchen. I’ll take the points here and whoever has the ball last wins the game, why not Mahomes well say it’s you.
Chiefs win 38-35 (Titans cover)
DOLPHINS +2.5 OVER falcons
Brian Flores said this morning that Tua Tagovailoa is still his Quarterback. This is like saying to your wife I still love you and am all in yet openly flirting and trying to go home with other women right in front of her face. In other words Brian Flores is just giving the media lip service for what the truth is. “Tua I know we haven’t been together for very long but I am just more interested in seeing someone else but for at least now we can stay together until I find someone better.” I could go one way and say the dead fish Falcons will slaughter a torn Miami team. But I think this game lights a fire under Tua’s bottom and he plays one of his best games as a pro in a glorified audition.
Dolphins win 27-20
PATRIOTS -7 OVER jets
Patty cake patty cake bakers man bake me a Jet as fast as you can. I thought I would play a little nursery rhyme there for the kids. I love the Pats minus 7 over the Jets (just like I loved the Pats to win big in New Jersey earlier this season). We can rightfully so talk all the smack we can muster in a paragraph about Bill Belichick since he is a terrible 9-13 since Tommy boy left town, but there is one fact about Billy B that has held true during his whole time with the Pats. He eats young QB’s like Zach Wilson for breakfast (yes Happy he does eat young QB’s for breakfast). Pats keep their season alive with another blowout win of gangreen.
Pats win 27-12
AFTERNOON OR VERY LATE AFTERNOON OUT EAST
lions +16.5 over RAMS
I was on the Rams bandwagon all week because the Rams are a big play team that hammers bad teams but then after doing some research I have changed my mind full course on this game. Let’s get into the mind of one Jared Thomas Goff. You had a falling out with your boss, someone ratted you out because you said to that person in a text that you thought your boss girlfriend was hot. Your job performance has dipped which doesn’t help your case. Your boss goes on a trip to Mexico and runs into a rival who is looking for new work and has more ability than you (even though you have a better resume of work). They fall in Work love and want to work together and kick you not just to the curb, but to football purgatory (or Detroit). You are having a brutal time at your new job while they are flourishing and laughing and sending each other smiley face emojis all the time. You now have a chance to stick it to them, this is your chance Jared what are you going to do. I think Jared Goff plays awesome on Sunday but only one problem persists. Rams just have way more talent, but I am going to take the Lions ATS in a game that is closer than people think. Lions still play hard and their win will come soon, just not on Sunday.
Rams Win 31-24 (Lions Cover)
RAIDERS -3 OVER eagles
Why is this line only three? Am I being duped here? The Raiders are 4-2 and handed the Ravens their only loss and wiped the Rocky Mountain floor with the Broncos in their building last week. The Eagles are 2-4, just traded their tight end away. Has a very green Quarterback, and a defense that has played well against some mediocre offenses but against the three good offenses they have played against game up 41, 42 and 28 points. I loved this line when it came out and now more like this line, feels like a trap because we all know the Raiders will tease you and break your heart. Guess well see what happens on Sunday.
Raiders Win 27-21
BUCS -12 OVER bears
This is a matchup nightmare for the Bears. The Bears need to run the ball to win and you cannot run on the Bucs. Justin Fields is not ready to dissect a defense through the air which is what is needed to score and beat this Bucs team. Plus Tom Brady was visibly and publicly pissed about letting the Eagles back in the game last week and needing a long drive late to put the game away. Plus we have a history this year already of games of the Bucs crushing mediocre teams at home (Falcons 48-25, Dolphins 45-17). I am not afraid of this line, give me the Pirates of the Gulf of Mexico to win big.
Bucs Win 34-13
texans +17.5 over CARDS
I did some research and the closest game I could find that the Cards were this big of a favorite was Week 16 in 2009 when the Cards were a 16 point favorite over the then St. Louis Rams (Cards covered winning 31-10). This is the biggest betting favorite the Arizona Cardinals have ever been. It also is an inappropriately overstated revenge game for DeAndre Hopkins and J.J Watt (who I think neither player really cares about that, so that isn’t much of a narrative here). So why would anyone in their right mind take Houston who has scored 12 combined points in 14 of the past 16 Quarters they have played over a team that has scored 31 plus in 5 of 6 games. It’s pretty simple and a human theory that I’ve always used in handicapping games (I’m a manalytic guy, use data to help me but these are human being playing football and not robots). The Cards just came off a huge statement win last Sunday and play a monster game just four days later against the Packers. Meanwhile the Texans just got embarrassed at a division rival last week. It is likely the Cards come out flat and the Texans come out with some fire (the Texans have one of the oldest teams in the league an underrated fact about them being a team full of pros). The Cards are far better and this game will be over by the 4th Quarter but do I think this game will be close of a half? I do think this game will be close for a half, so the value is in the plus 17.5.
Cards Win 31-17 (Texans Cover)
SUNDAY NIGHT!!
colts +4 over 49ERS
Why is this line 49ers minus 4? Every metric I have actually stats that the Colts are the better football team. The Colts could be 4-2 if Carson Wentz didn’t get hurt in the Rams game and Rodrigo Blankship wasn’t kicking with an injured right hip in the Ravens game. I still think the Colts are a good football team and I can’t believe I’m saying this but I would predict today that two teams from the AFC South makes the postseason this year (Yeah I just wrote that!!). The 49ers on the other hand has been overrated by Vegas all year. They almost let the Lions and Eagles come back to beat them. Did let the Packers come back to beat them. Played an awful game against the defensively challenged Seahawks. I actually think they played their best game of the year in Arizona in Week 5 when their defensive line bullied the Cards up front but Trey Lance played like a rookie making his first start and the 49ers couldn’t steal a game that was there for the taking. Jimmy Garoppolo is due to return which is a good thing for the Niners (even though twitter may differ on this topic). But Indy will be able to run the ball on a team that is susceptible up the middle and the Colts defense is good enough to keep this game competitive. This is my favorite line of the Week, sometimes Vegas gives you one and I think Indy plus 4 is that pick, give me the shoes!
Colts Win 27-24
MONDAY NIGHT!!
saints -4.5 over HAWKS
The Saints have been burning me all year, when I zig they zag and this is an even number game so they should lose right? I guess in theory you can say so but I look at a team coming in on 15 days of rest and has one of the best coaches in football. I know that the Seahawks are not going to be able to run the football on a stout defensive front. The Saints should be able to run the football on a team that is allowing 447 yards a game to control the clock. Plus the simple fact is can you trust Geno Smith to move the ball on one of the best defenses in football when he is forced to have to carry the load? Sometimes a team just has a year from hell and this season it’s the Hawks of Seattle.
Saints Win 23-13
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 5-9
Season: 50-43-2